W13: Weekly Maize (Corn) Update

Published Apr 5, 2023

China

China has been buying up US corn due to a sharp fall in export values, despite renewed political tensions between the US and China. This is due to a halt to Brazilian supply, uncertainty about exports from rival supplier Ukraine, a crop disaster in Argentina, and improved navigation conditions along the Mississippi River. The latest flash sale of 204KT was the eighth confirmed deal in the month.

China Buys More Us Corn and Volume Exceeds 600KT in W13 (Mar 30)

The USDA announced a new US corn sale to China of 178KT on March 30, 2023. It is the fourth announcement of the week, and the total volume has already reached 630.8KT. Of the last 13 working days, 11 registered US corn sales to China for the 2022/23 season. It is the most consistent sequence of purchases since the Asian nation returned to buying in 2020.

China Raised Corn Imports Sharply in February 2023 (Mar 30)

China increased corn imports by 41% in February and 14% in the first two months of the year. This trend deepened in March, with purchases from Brazil effectively halted due to soybean imports from the US. Uncertainty in corn exports from Ukraine, a reduced harvest in Argentina, and improved shipping conditions on the Mississippi River also have an impact on China's actions.

United States

Corn Has the Highest Upside Potential in the US (Mar 27)

Corn and wheat had the highest increases of the week, with corn having the greatest potential for growth in the short and medium term. Soybeans don't have any potential, and wheat depends on Putin's mood. The Russian supply is devastating the market, and the government of Russia rebelled against it, so let's wait for the next bids.

Brazil

Producer Error Killed Corn in Brazil (Mar 27)

TF Agroeconomia reports that a producer from Rio Grande do Sul chose to hold soybeans and sell corn instead of selling soybeans. It caused the price of corn to fall, as low soybeans made producers hold soybeans and sell more corn, pushing prices down in W13.

Corn Exports in March 2023 Already Exceed 1.1M Tons, Surpassing ANEC's Forecast in Brazil (Mar 27)

Brazil exported 1,139,989.1 tons of unground corn in the first 18 days of March 2023, representing 7,983% more than the total of 14,278.9 tons. Daily average shipments were 63,332.7 tons, an increase of 9,657.9% from 2022.

Safrinha Corn 77% Planted in Parana, Brazil vs. 94% in 2022 (Mar 27)

Parana is the second largest safrinha corn-producing state in Brazil after Mato Grosso and the farmers in the state have planted 77% of their safrinha corn compared to 94% in 2022. It represents an advance of 16% for W13.

Corn Market Should Start the Week With an Increase in Supply in Brazil (Mar 27)

Producers should continue to fix sales due to storage difficulties, while consumers should have peace of mind about their inventories. Prices should retreat and larger acquisitions can be carried out. The price are ranging from USD 17.15/17.74 per bag (BRL 87/90 per bag) in Santos, Paranaguá, and Paraná.

Conab Reports Second-Crop Corn Planting at 91.1% In Brazil, While Summer Harvest Is at 41.9% (Mar 28)

The National Supply Company (Conab) released its weekly monitoring of Brazilian crops and updated the stage of development of the first and second crop corn crops in Brazil. The summer crop was harvested at 41.9%, with emphasis on So Paulo (90%), Rio Grande do Sul (71%), Santa Catarina (70%), Paraná (57%), Bahia (40%), Minas Gerais (28%) and Goiás (1%). The first crop harvest was at 47.1%, with 35.1% in maturation, 16% in grain filling, 5.7% in flowering, and 1.3% in vegetative development. As for the second Brazilian crop, the company indicates that 91.1% of the predicted area has already been sown.

For ANEC, Brazil Should Ship 836,428KT of Corn in March 2023 (Mar 28)

Brazilian corn exports are expected to reach 836,828 tons in March 2023, up from 107,232 tons in March 2022. In February 2023, Brazil exported 1.939M tons, and in the week between March 19th and March 25th, 190,727 tons were shipped.

Brazil Completes Planting of Safrinha Corn (Mar 29)

According to AgRural monitoring data, in Brazil, the sowing of safrinha corn is coming to an end, which, as of March 23, 2023, was completed in 96% of the planned areas (100% - a year earlier).

2022/23 Brazil Safrinha Corn 96% Planted (Mar 30)

Safrinha corn in Brazil was 96% planted as of late W12, with only a few fields left to plant in isolated areas. Rainfall amounts in Brazil are declining, which could signal an early end to the summer rainy season. In Mato Grosso, the safrinha corn planting is 99% compared to 99.9% in 2022, with 80% of the corn planted within the ideal planting window. The weather thus far has been favorable for early corn development, but rainfall amounts are starting to diminish.

Argentina

The 2021/22 Corn Campaign Closed With a Lower Volume of Exports but Better Prices in Argentina (Mar 27)

The 2021/22 campaign saw the fourth-highest export volume on record, with 34.7MT of corn exported. Despite the decrease in shipments abroad, average FOB prices of corn grew by 14.5%, compensating for the cut in quantities and leaving a 3% drop in exports in dollars. The main destinations for Argentine corn are Vietnam and South Korea, with 14% of exports each. The Corn complex also distributes its exports to other destinations.

The Corn Harvest in Argentina Will Be 75% Of What Was Expected (Mar 27)

The estimate of the late harvest has dropped from 4.9MT to 3.2MT due to lack of rain and high temperatures. The rains will stop the losses, but for a large part of what is sown, it is too late.

Argentina Starts Harvesting Corn (Mar 27)

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has reported that corn harvesting has begun in Argentina, with 5% of the planned area being threshed. The condition of crops has improved slightly, with 58% in poor and very poor condition and 36 (33)% in satisfactory condition. Experts maintain a forecast for corn production in Argentina in 2022/23 at 36M tons. The estimate of the late harvest has dropped from 4.9MT to 3.2MT due to the lack of rain and high temperatures. The rains will stop the losses, but for a large part of what is sown, it is too late.

Corn Harvest Advances in Argentina and Yields Remain Low, Points Out BCBA (Mar 30)

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) updated its reports on the 2022/23 corn crop in Argentina, highlighting the progress of the crop and the low yields. The harvest has already been completed in 7% of the area and has an average productivity of 62.67 bags per hectare. The BCBA currently rates Argentina's corn crops with 9% as good or excellent, 38% as fair, and 53% as fair or.

Ukraine

The Downward Trend in Corn Prices Prevails in the Seaports of Ukraine (Mar 27)

Anna Tanskaya, Head of the Department of Grain and Oilseeds Markets at APK-Inform Agency, discussed the difficult and tense situation in the Ukrainian market in W12. Russian experts of the SKZ and the expected entry into the global arena of South American corn limited the trade in Ukrainian grain. However, some resumption of world quotations against the background of China's purchase of a large consignment of corn from the United States and the emergence of Chinese demand for Ukrainian grain partially supported prices in Ukrainian ports.

Corn Prices in Ukraine Rose to USD 195-200/T With Delivery to the Port (Mar 29)

In Ukraine, traders are resuming the purchase of corn, resulting in prices rising to USD 195-200/T with delivery to the port. Farmers are holding back sales in anticipation of a spring price increase due to reduced harvest in Argentina and weather in April and May 2023 in Brazil. More than half of exports in March 2023 are covered by corn.

Corn Prices in Ukraine Are Expected to Rise in April 2023 (Mar 30)

The Ukrainian corn market is currently illiquid, despite the recent extension of the grain agreement. However, there are all prerequisites for grain prices to rise in mid-April 2023. In particular, the demand for corn is shaped by China.

Demand Is Recovering on the Corn Market in Ukraine (Mar 30)

Corn prices are supported by China's purchases of US corn, and activity on the Ukrainian market is recovering, but demand is still small compared to the available supply.

Bolivia

Blow to Corn Smuggling, Promasor Describes It as a Show (Mar 27)

The National Customs in La Paz seized 133T of illegal corn worth USD 31.98K (BOB 222K). The five trailers contained 22T of unpackaged bulk corn and 111T of grain corn for the production of popcorn. This seizure is nothing compared to the amount of corn smuggled in and qualifies as a media show. Mario Moreno, president of Promasor, said that corn smuggling is counterproductive for the country's producers.

Global

The Price of Corn on the World Market Has Fallen (Mar 30)

The price of corn on the world market decreased between February 2, 2023 and March 9, 2023 due to low export demand and a significant supply of Russian and Australian wheat. In Argentina, the immediate delivery crop could be traded for USD 279/ton, while in Ukraine, the immediate port price (FOB) fell by USD 20-208/ton. In Bulgaria and Romania, the spot market price of corn decreased by USD 18-288/ton.

Hungary

Producer Prices for Wheat and Corn Decreased Compared to Last Year in Hungary (Mar 29)

The prices of food wheat, feed wheat, and feed corn in Hungary have decreased significantly, but none have yet reached the level of 2021. The producer price of edible wheat is HUF 88.2K/T, a 19% decrease in one year.