W16 Soybean Update: Brazil's 2023/24 Soybean Forecast Reduced, Paraguay Faces Shipping Challenges

Published Apr 23, 2024

In W16 in the soybean landscape, Conab reduced Brazil's 2023/24 soybean estimate to 146.52 mmt, attributing the decrease to adverse weather conditions. Soybean harvesting in Mato Grosso do Sul reached 94%, with yields lower than initially forecasted, resulting in a production estimate of 12.92 mmt. Brazil is expected to export between 13 and 14.34 mmt of soybeans in Apr-24, according to the ANEC. Meanwhile, Paraguay anticipates a record soybean harvest of 10.4 mmt despite concerns about low river levels affecting shipment delays. Taiwan's soybean imports are projected to increase by 3.5% YoY to 2.65 mmt in the 2023/24 season due to rising demand for feed. Lastly, US soybean crushers achieved a historic processing milestone in Mar-24, processing a record-breaking volume of beans.

Conab Lowers Brazil's 2023/24 Soybean Forecast Due to Yield Reduction

In its Apr-24 report, the National Supply Company (Conab) reduced Brazil's 2023/24 soybean estimate by 0.33 million metric tons (mmt) or 5.2% year-on-year (YoY) to 146.52 mmt. The soybean acreage estimate stood at 45.23 million hectares (ha), up 65 thousand ha from Mar-24 and up 2.6% year-on-year (YoY). The soybean yield is now projected at 3.239 metric tons (mt) per ha, down 7.7% YoY, attributed to adverse weather in Oct-23 and Nov-23.

Soybean Harvest Progress and Yield Decline in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

In Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, soybean harvesting has reached 94%, with the southern region leading at 96.5% and the northern region at 83%. Initially forecasted at 54 sacks/ha , the average yield reduced to 50.5 sacks/ha, representing a 19% YoY decrease compared to the previous season. Consequently, the 2023/24 soybean production estimate for Mato Grosso do Sul stands at 12.92 mmt, reflecting a 13.8% reduction from initial projections.

Brazilian Soybean Export Projections Upgraded for Apr-24

Brazil is anticipated to export between 13 and 14.34 mmt of soybeans in Apr-24, according to the National Association of Cereal Exporters (ANEC). This projection marks an increase from the previous estimate of 12.73 mmt. Additionally, the forecast for soybean meal shipments has risen to 2.58 mmt, compared to 2.44 mmt predicted a week ago.

Challenges in Paraguay's Soybean Export Amid Record Harvest Forecast

Paraguay is poised for a record soybean harvest in 2024, yet exporters are concerned about low river levels, causing shipment delays along the crucial Paraguay-Paraná waterway. The drought in central-western Brazil is impacting water levels downstream. Vital for the country’s grain exports, the Paraguay River is significantly shallower compared to the same period in 2023, affecting barge transportation of grains. Despite this challenge, Paraguay is forecasted to produce a record 10.4 mmt of soybeans, making it the third largest exporter globally.

Taiwan Anticipates 3.5% Increase in Soybean Imports for 2023/24 Season

Taiwan's soybean imports are projected to rise by 3.5% YoY to 2.65 mmt in the 2023/24 season, driven by increased demand for feed following a rebound in the pig and poultry sectors after a decline caused by animal disease in 2023. Despite producing minimal soybeans due to limited farmland and import competitiveness, Taiwan's production gradually increased since 2012. However, logistics issues in key shipping routes, like the Panama Canal and the Red Sea region, have impacted the import process, particularly from top suppliers like the United States (US).

US Soybean Crushers Set New Monthly Processing Record in Mar-24

In Mar-24, soybean crushers in the US achieved a historic milestone by processing a record-breaking volume of beans, surpassing any other month. Despite a slight decrease in daily processing pace compared to Feb-24, data from the National Association of Oilseed Processors (NOPA) indicated robust activity. NOPA members, representing approximately 95% of soybeans crushed in the US, processed 196.406 million bushels of soybeans in Mar-24. This represented a 5.5% increase in month-on-month (MoM) figures and a 5.7% rise YoY.