W18: Pork Update

In W18 in the pork landscape, the USDA indicates that among the major pork-producing countries, the EU, Canada, and South Korea show a decline in the volume produced compared to 2022. The EU is expected to be the main reason for the drop in global pork production, with an annual reduction of 3.2%, equivalent to more than 700K MT. In Q1 2023, Spanish pork and prepared pork product exports totaled 382.19K MT, a decrease of 7.4% compared to Q1 2022, when 412.82K MT were shipped. Spanish pork shipment increases to China (+1%) and Japan (+19) were offset by the reduction in exports to the Philippines (-24%) and South Korea (-26%). The USDA forecasts the Canadian swine herd to continue shrinking through 2023. This is because swine producers are exiting the industry and net gains in finishing space are not occurring. Expected reductions in 2023 slaughter capacity in Eastern Canada are anticipated to support a smaller pig crop in 2023, and thus slaughter is contemplated to reduce. Meanwhile, Canadian pork exports are expected to decline once again in 2023, driven by reductions in slaughter and pork production. Canadian exporters expect to grow market share in the Indo-Pacific region for both beef and pork.

During April, the Brazilian pork market did not show a greater retail trade dynamism, with the live hog arroba average price standing at USD 19.71, a decrease of 10% MoM and up 7.3% YoY. In the first four months of 2023, the index accumulated of live hog arroba reached USD 21.37, up 23.9% compared to the same period in 2022. However, the comparison with the same period in 2021 indicates an increase of only 1.1%, meaning that 2022 prices were significantly low. Argentine pork production in 2022 reached 723.39K MT, up 3.9% YoY, with slaughtered animals amounting to 7.666M, an increase of 2.4% YoY. During the first two months of 2023, Argentina processed 1.2M pigs, 10.6% higher than in the same period in 2022, when 1.1M pigs were slaughtered. However, Argentine pork exports dropped in 2022 to 9.4K MT, down 80% due to a significant reduction in shipments to China. With more pork meat available, Argentine 2022 pork consumption per capita increased by 6.1%, setting a new record. On April 19th, Singapore detected ASF in pig carcasses removed from the slaughter line. These carcasses came from a consignment of live pigs from Pulau Bulan, Indonesia. Therefore, the Singapore Food Agency (AFS) suspended live pig imports from Pulau Bulan, while investigations continue on the firm. The Official Veterinary Services (SVO) of Greece notified on April 26th of an outbreak of ASF in a domestic farm, after the detection of compatible symptoms and the discovery of two dead sows. The farm is located in the municipal district of Livadia, with 675 animals (1 boar, 53 breeders, and 621 fattening pigs).

In Q1 2023, Ukrainian live pig imports totaled 215MT, valued at USD 1.2M, while there were no deliveries from abroad in Q1 2022. All live pigs were sourced from Denmark since the beginning of 2023. So far, there is no export of Ukrainian live pigs in 2023, although, in Q1 2022, Ukraine shipped 141.4MT of these animals to foreign markets worth USD 220.7K. Ukrainian fresh, chilled, and frozen pork imports in April amounted to 424MT, valued at USD 1.3M, down 16% MoM in value and a new record low for monthly supplies since 2018. This reduction is linked to the hike in pork prices, where the average price of a kilogram of imported pork in April increased to USD 2.4 from USD 1.88 in March. Furthermore, during January-April 2023, Ukraine received 3.58K MT of chilled and frozen pork meat, 4.5 times less than in the same period in 2022. Lastly, at the beginning of May, the purchase prices of Ukrainian slaughter pigs weakened, with selling prices ranging from USD 2.07-2.15/kg. The decrease in the pork purchase price is attributed to a slowdown in sales after the Easter holidays.