W23: Salmon Update

In W23 in the salmon landscape, it was reported that on June 1, 2023, Russian fishermen will be able to harvest 512 thousand tons of Pacific salmon, including 376 thousand tons of pink, 91 thousand tons of chum, 35 thousand tons of sockeye, and 9 thousand tons of coho. Most of the salmon will be supplied to the domestic market and shipped for export through the seaport of Vladivostok. The Federal Agency for Fisheries in Russia is anticipating a highly productive salmon fishing season in 2023, with a projected catch exceeding 500 thousand tons. They have made all necessary preparations and organizational arrangements to handle such a volume of catch.

The global market for salmon and other seafood is experiencing a shift, as highlighted in the Norwegian Seafood Council's recent monthly report. The report indicates an increasing demand for salmon in Asia, particularly in China. In May 2023, China witnessed significant value growth, with an impressive increase of £16 million or 83% compared to the same period in 2022. This trend of growth is also observed in other Asian markets like Korea and Thailand. It was reported that in W22, the price of Norwegian fresh salmon HON increased 4.17% WoW to USD 10.55/kg in FCA Oslo, with a decline in export volume due to the public holiday. Future contracts between August and November 2023 were traded at USD 7.14/kg, suggesting a decrease in prices during the late summer or early autumn. In addition, Norwegian salmon prices have risen 7.7% in the past week, reaching an average of USD 11.10/kg (NOK 117.5/kg) in the W22. The Nasdaq Salmon Index weekly price sales update reported that the average price has risen 5.21% over the past four weeks and 5.49% over the past 12 weeks. Fish Pool reported an increase in forward prices for June, July, August, September, and Q3 and Q4 2023 respectively. Forward prices for Q1 and Q2 2024 are also up.

The Surrey Board of Trade is urging the Federal Fisheries Minister to reconsider her proposal to close salmon farms in British Columbia, as it would have a significant impact on 4,700 jobs and USD 1.2 billion in annual economic activity. To show their support for the sector, the United Steelworkers Local 1-1937 organized a rally, highlighting that the salmon farming industry contributes USD 3.86 billion to the economy and provides employment for 14,500 Canadians. In Canada, Ottawa has delayed a decision on a planned transition from open-net salmon farms in British Columbia's coastal waters. Environmental groups and Indigenous nations say the farms are linked to the transfer of disease to wild salmon, while industry and local politicians fear thousands of jobs are threatened. Fisheries and Oceans Canada has extended a consultation period until the end of this summer, with a transition decision coming at a later unannounced date. Meanwhile, the wild salmon catches in Alaska, US for 2023 are expected to decrease by 31% YoY due to the decline in the Bristol Bay harvest. The global pink salmon forecast for 2023 predicts a larger harvest, surpassing the usual standards of an odd-numbered year. Both Alaska and Russia are expecting chum salmon harvests that align with the five-year average, with approximately 40 million fish per season. In 2022, the Alaska coho salmon harvest was the smallest in the last three decades, but the 2023 forecast of 17 million pounds for coho salmon represents a substantial increase from 2022. Further, the National Fisheries Institute of the USA has reported a 20% increase in per capita consumption of salmon in 2021, from 2.83 pounds to 3.38 pounds. This highlights the growing importance of salmon in North American consumers' diets, as it now trails only shrimp as the second most popular seafood.

Chilean salmon and trout exports have maintained stable volumes and income, as reported by the Chilean National Customs Service. From January to May 2023, 316,614 tons of salmon and trout were exported, with a value of USD 2,798 million. Mexico experienced a significant growth of 24% in volume and 33% in returns, while China experienced substantial increases of 73% in volume and 76% in returns. Russia also saw a remarkable surge, with a 94% increase in shipments and a 116% rise in returns. Brazil showed a minor decrease of 1% in returns but a 1% increase in volume. Japan experienced a notable decline of 26% in volume and 21% in returns. The United States remained the leading market for Chilean salmon, with 107,098 tons exported for USD 972.1 million. Overall, the Chilean salmon and trout industry has demonstrated resilience in maintaining stable export volumes and income, with positive growth observed in several key markets.