1. Weekly News

Brazil

Disease Risks Increase as La Niña Hits Brazilian Fruit and Vegetable Crops Hard

Marked by a temperature drop exceeding 0.5°C and significant increases in rainfall in Brazil's North and Northeast regions, the La Niña phenomenon severely impacts fruit and vegetable crops. Bahia, Pernambuco, Sergipe, and Ceará are experiencing substantial losses in productivity and fruit quality for crops such as tomatoes, grapes, and melons. The high humidity associated with La Niña is promoting the emergence of diseases. Therefore, producers need to implement preventive phytosanitary controls against fungi and bacteria. Critical crop diseases include late blight (Phytophthora infestans) in tomatoes and potatoes and mildew (Plasmopara viticola) in grapes. These highly destructive diseases can rapidly compromise entire areas, particularly under mild temperatures (11°C to 23°C) and high humidity (over 90%).

India

India's Food Price Volatility Challenges RBI as CPI Inflation Stays Above Target

The ongoing price volatility of essential food items in India, including tomatoes, onions, potatoes (TOP), and pulses, continues to present significant challenges for the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The instability in food prices has kept the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation above the targeted level, reaching 5.1% in Jun-24. Despite these inflationary pressures, the report notes a potential reprieve due to the above-normal monsoon and increased sowing activity, supported by the anticipated onset of a La Niña event later in the year. These factors could help stabilize prices in the coming quarters.

Netherlands

Prices for 2024 Tomato Season in the Netherlands Stabilize Despite Early Setbacks

The 2024 tomato season in the Netherlands had a slow start due to unfavorable spring weather, resulting in weak prices during the first half of the year. Prices began to stabilize in Jul-24 and are expected to remain steady through the summer. This season has been challenging for growers, who had to assess the performance of resistant varieties under large-scale cultivation conditions. Despite a higher harvest volume compared to 2023, this growth is mainly due to a greater cultivated area rather than a substantial yield increase. Meanwhile, Spain's tomato production extended into W24 due to replanting from last year's heat waves, while the Southern European heat wave, with temperatures reaching 40 to 45°C in Spain and nearly 40°C in south France, led to quality issues and reduced supply from these regions. This limited overall supply contributed to a slight price increase in the Netherlands. Although the tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRF) virus remains a concern, the widespread adoption of resistant tomato varieties has stabilized the market and prevented extreme price fluctuations in previous seasons.

Spain

ASAJA Almería Forecasts Stable Greenhouse Area for 2024/25, Early Start for Tomatoes

Agrarian Association of Young Farmers (ASAJA) Almería released the initial forecasts for the 2024/25 fruit and vegetable campaign, predicting that the surface area dedicated to greenhouse crops will remain nearly unchanged from the previous year. However, an earlier start in the pepper and tomato crop cycles has been observed to secure better market prices. For this season, tomato cultivation is estimated at 8,700 hectares (ha), reflecting a 3% year-on-year (YoY) decrease, although varieties such as pear and loose tomatoes are becoming more prevalent.

Turkey

Heirloom 'Bulanık Tomatoes' from Turkey Fetch High Demand for 2024 Harvest

In Kahramanmaraş, Turkey, the 'Bulanık tomato,' grown from heirloom seeds in the Bulanık neighborhood, is harvested on steep terrain and transported by horses and mules. Renowned for its flavor, aroma, and size, some weighing around 1 kilogram (kg), these tomatoes are produced using traditional methods, including animal manure, and are pesticide-free. Farmers expect to harvest approximately 10 thousand metric tons (mt) in 2024, selling the tomatoes for USD 0.89/kg directly from the field. These tomatoes are highly sought after and quickly sell out in local markets and bazaars.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Tomato Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Tomato Pricing Important Exporters (W32 2023 to W32 2024)

Mexico

In W32, Mexican wholesale tomato prices rose by 14.86% week-on-week (WoW) from USD 1.75/kg to USD 2.01/kg, the highest price among the compared countries. This surge is due to a drop in local production caused by heat, adversely affecting crop yields. Although regional tomato and vegetable production typically stabilizes prices, higher temperatures are expected to increase prices by the end of June or early July due to reduced crop yields. The heat impedes tomato plant development, causing crops to burn and resulting in a shortage of regional produce. Additionally, inflation has contributed to the increase, as reflected in the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) results released by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) on July 24, 2024.

Morocco

In W32, Moroccan tomato prices experienced a significant increase of 13.33% WoW and 36% month-on-month (MoM), reaching USD 0.34/kg. This sharp rise is due to a combination of factors. Adverse weather conditions have negatively impacted tomato production, leading to reduced supply. Additionally, fluctuations in supply and demand have contributed to the price increase. The costs associated with production and transportation have also risen, further driving up prices. Policies governing imports and exports and limited production and availability on the market have exacerbated the situation, leading to the observed price surge.

Spain

In W32, Spain's wholesale tomato prices decreased by 9.09% WoW to USD 0.70/kg from USD 0.77/kg in Week 31 and experienced a significant YoY drop of 25.53%. The conclusion of the greenhouse tomato campaign in Almería has led to expectations of an earlier start for the 2024/25 season. Furthermore, increased tomato imports from Morocco have contributed to price reductions. The influx of supplies from various origins has exacerbated the downward pressure on prices in Almería during the winter tomato campaign.

Turkey

In W32, Turkey's tomato prices remained stable WoW at USD 0.90/kg but increased by 8.43% MoM and 40.63% YoY. The price rise is primarily due to drought conditions resulting from climate change, severely impacting agricultural output. Farmers also experienced higher costs due to increased diesel fuel and transport expenses. Consequently, supermarket prices have risen, with tomatoes sold at approximately USD 1.21/kg in early Aug-24. The president of the Agriculture Engineers' Chambers (ZMO) has pointed to extreme heat and rising transport costs as key factors contributing to the price increases.

France

In W32, tomato prices in France increased by 1.32% to USD 1.54/kg from USD 1.52/kg in the previous week, following a decline. After a challenging start to the season, the French tomato market is recovering, with consumption picking up and production moderating. Moreover, high temperatures forecasted for Europe are expected to lead to further production losses and increase prices. This trend will likely continue, particularly around the Mediterranean, where extreme heat could further impact tomato crops grown in tunnels, shelters, or open fields.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Adapt to Climate Challenges and Optimize Production

Spain and France should adapt their agricultural practices to address the climate challenges affecting tomato production. The heatwaves have led to reduced supply and quality issues. Implementing climate-resilient practices, such as using shade nets and optimizing irrigation systems, will help mitigate the effects of extreme temperatures. Additionally, exploring heat-tolerant tomato varieties and improving greenhouse conditions can enhance crop yields and quality. Early planting and crop management adjustments will also help manage supply and demand. By adopting these measures, Spain and France can stabilize tomato production, ensuring consistent supply and price stability for domestic and international markets.

Stabilize Food Prices Through Improved Agricultural Practices

India should focus on stabilizing food prices, particularly for essential items like tomatoes, onions, potatoes, and pulses, by improving agricultural practices and increasing production efficiency. The anticipated La Niña event and above-normal monsoon could help stabilize prices if utilized effectively. Implementing advanced irrigation techniques, improving pest management, and adopting high-yield crop varieties will enhance production stability. Additionally, investing in supply chain improvements and storage facilities will reduce post-harvest losses and price volatility. These measures will help stabilize the CPI and provide relief to RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee while ensuring consistent food prices for consumers.

Implement Preventive Phytosanitary Measures

In Brazil, addressing the impacts of the La Niña phenomenon on fruit and vegetable crops, particularly tomatoes, grapes, and melons, requires implementing preventive phytosanitary measures. The increased humidity and cooler temperatures are conducive to diseases such as late blight and mildew. Producers in regions like Bahia, Pernambuco, Sergipe, and Ceará should adopt integrated pest management strategies to control fungal and bacterial diseases. This includes regular monitoring for early signs of disease, applying appropriate fungicides and bactericides, and ensuring proper field sanitation. Additionally, improving crop rotation and using disease-resistant varieties will help mitigate these issues. By enhancing phytosanitary measures, Brazilian farmers can safeguard crop yields and quality, stabilizing supply and prices for local and international markets.

Sources:Tridge, Sondakika, Portaldelcampo, Agronaplo, Portal Do Agronegócio, Lavozdealmeria, Theprint , El Sudcaliforniano, adn40, FreshPlaza