W4: Weekly Dairy Update
Milk
Europe: In the European Union, the Number of Dairy Cows Is Expected to Decrease by 0.5M in 2023 (Jan 25)
The number of dairy cows in the European Union will fall below 20M in 2023, which is 564K fewer than last year and 1.7M fewer than in 2016. In addition, the EU-wide drought that persisted throughout the summer of 2022 hampered feed and milk production as production costs for energy and fertilizer increased and this caused raw milk selling prices to rise. It will be recalled that the Spanish government has banned the construction of large farms where thousands of cows are housed at the same time. According to the amendments to the law, only farms with a maximum number of 850 cattle will be allowed to start in the future. Adult dairy cows and bulls count for one unit, calves for about half a unit, depending on age.
New Zealand: Composting Provides Unexpected Benefits to Dairy Farms (Jan 27)
Dairy farms emit vast quantities of carbon dioxide and methane, making them one of the leading agricultural industries contributing to greenhouse gas emissions. Composting has long been known to help reduce emissions and turn organic waste into more beneficial products. Research in New Zealand determined the feasibility of using composting shelters to house cows, a practice becoming popular among smallholder farmers. To reduce methane emissions and use animal and plant waste for fertilizer production, farmers typically compost organic waste in composting shelters. However, some farmers noticed that many cows seem to love the environment inside the composting shelters. The research showed that the heat from the composting process inside the shelters provided cows with a more regulated resting environment, especially during cold nights.
Following a sharp fall from USD 504.34/100kg (€464) in the early part of January to USD 311.95/100kg (€287) only a week later. Tridge's Belgium's (Leuven) wholesale cow milk powder index is now at USD 326.08/100kg (€300), up a marginal 2% WoW. The current price level seems to be lower looking at prices over the last six months. European cow milk powder prices are trending lower on the back of excellent milk production numbers and an active churning of milk into powder. Market sources say buyers are beginning to enter the market to cover their exposures at current lower prices. Tridge expects the increased buying activity to push prices up, at least in the near term, but high cow milk powder inventories may stop that push.
France: The Dairy Cow Herd Fell Sharply in 2022 (Jan 24)
The dairy cow herd fell sharply in 2022, at an annual rate falling from -1.8% at the end of 2021 to -2.3% at the end of 2022. The numbers will continue to fall in 2023 due to restructuring still in progress, but a little less quickly (-2.0%) due to an attractive milk price for producers. This slowdown in the decline will cause cows to be retained on farms, especially since there are few replacement heifers ready to go into production in 2023. Culls of dairy cows should therefore decline significantly (-4.3% /2022). The high cost of finishing will lead to further erosion of their average weight. The tonnages of dairy cows slaughtered would then fall by -4.5%/2022.
US: Milk Production Growth Slowed in December 2022 (Jan 6)
Cow numbers declined towards the end of 2022 while milk output per cow was relatively flat. US milk production reached 18.93B pounds, up 0.8% while cow numbers totaled 9.4M, up 27K head. Furthermore, US average milk per cow was 2,014 pounds, up 9 pounds. December 2022 US milk production was up from a year ago, but the pace of growth slowed as cow numbers declined to end the year, and the increase in milk output per cow remained subdued.
Ukraine: Family Dairy Farms Increased Their Number of Cattle by 22% (Jan 26)
Annual milk yield per fodder cow on an industrial farm reached 8.7K liters (+10%), in the network average, 4.8 thousand liters. The rise in milk production was achieved not only due to the increase in livestock, but also due to the feeding of cows with mono forage. Animals consume a mixed balanced feed, which contains all the necessary nutrients, which have a positive effect on increasing milk yield and weight gain. Mono fodder production was established on the basis of the fodder center in the village of Zdovbytsia (Rivna region). During the war, "Family Dairy Farms' 'did not plan to actively expand the network throughout Ukraine. The main focus of the project will be on supporting participants and developing family dairy farms in the western regions. As reported, the network of family dairy farms in 2022 grew by 20 farms and reached 172. The largest number of new participants came to the project from the Khmelnytskyi, Volhynia, and Poltava regions.
Prospects for the development of the dairy industry in the new realities and measures of state support for the sector became the key topics of the XIV Congress of the National Union of Milk Producers. According to preliminary data, the volume of raw milk production amounted to over 32.6M MT, more than a year earlier. This became possible due to comprehensive state support and improvement of the production process, the modernization of existing and the opening of new high-tech enterprises. So, in 2022, more than 200 new and modernized farms appeared in Russia. About the industry’s prospects for 2023, Dmitry Patrushev noted that the department expects to maintain positive dynamics both in raw milk and in processing.
Bulgaria: The Purchase Price of Raw Cow’s Milk Was 8 to 20% Below the EU Average in 2022 (Jan 26)
In 2022, there was a decline in the production of fresh milk and cow's cheese and growth in butter and drinking milk with additives. The purchase price of Bulgarian raw cow's milk was about 10% lower than the average in the European Union. According to data from the European Commission for the month of December 2022, the average purchase price in the EU was about USD 0.63 (58 euro cents), and in Bulgaria about USD 0.57 (52 cents). The highest price for raw cow's milk was received by livestock farmers in Ireland USD 0.75 (69 euro cents). The cheapest was paid to cattle breeders in Slovakia USD 0.50 (46 euro cents).
