Weekly Product Updates

W41: Salmon Update

Market & Price Trends
Published Oct 20, 2023

In W41 in the salmon landscape, Rabobank predicts a global farmed Atlantic salmon production of 3 million tons in the 2024 season, following two stable years. Norwegian salmon production fell by 1.1% in 2022 but is expected to grow by 0.5% in 2023, reaching 1.52 million tons. Growth is projected at 3.7% in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025, totaling 1.58 and 1.66 million tons, respectively.

Chile's salmon production is expected to increase by 0.2% this 2023 to 759 thousand tons and grow by 2% in 2024 to 774 thousand tons. However, it may decline by 1.8% in 2025 to 760 thousand tons. Other countries, including Australia, Ireland, the United States (US), Iceland, anticipate higher growth rates of 15% in 2024 and 14% in 2025. Overall, the salmon industry shows a positive trend, with expected growth of 4.3% in 2024 and 3.9% in 2025, signifying a significant shift.

From Jan-23 to Sep-23, Turkish salmon exports saw a 7% year-over-year (YoY) increase, reaching USD 289.2 million, with product volume rising by 18% YoY to 43.6 thousand tons. Turkish salmon was exported to 41 countries, especially the Russian Federation. Salmon exports to Russia surged by 54% YoY in quantity and 24% YoY in value, totaling 30.1 thousand tons and USD 177.9 million, respectively. Germany and Vietnam were other prominent importers, contributing USD 39.6 million and USD 24.1 million, respectively. This period also witnessed the expansion of Turkish salmon sales to new markets like Malaysia, Dubai, Ukraine, Qatar, France, Azerbaijan, Spain, Kuwait, and Mexico. The Turkish salmon industry anticipates further growth in year-end exports, focusing on diversifying its markets.

In W39, spot prices for farmed Chilean salmon shipped to the US and Brazil experienced fluctuations. Salmon prices for trim D Chilean salmon fillets exported to the US decreased to USD 5.77 per pound (lb), a decline of USD 0.05/lb. These prices are still about USD 0.30/lb lower than in the same week in 2022. Meanwhile, Chilean salmon prices in the Brazilian market rose in previous weeks, but in W39, they fell to USD 6.78 per kilogram (kg), decreasing by USD 0.06/kg. Although salmon prices in 2023 are expected to remain lower than in 2021 and 2022, the gap has narrowed to around USD 0.20/kg. Furthermore, the average price for fresh Chilean salmon with heads weighing 6 kg or more exported to China increased by USD 0.16/kg, reaching USD 10.96/kg.

Finally, the Far East yielded over 601 thousand tons of salmon by October 9, 2023, the second record-breaking catch. As Russia's Federal Customs Service data indicates, the primary focus is supplying this fresh salmon to the domestic market. Additionally, commercial aquaculture contributes to increasing salmon production. As a result, there's no shortage of red caviar for domestic consumers, with the market's needs adequately fulfilled.

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