1. Weekly News

Bulgaria

Bulgarian Potato Cultivation Declined Sharply Amid Drought

Bulgarian farmers are increasingly abandoning potato cultivation due to severe droughts, limited irrigation water, and high temperatures. This trend is leading to a rise in imported potatoes marketed as locally grown. Potato farming areas have drastically reduced, from 26 thousand hectares (ha) in 2006 to 5,600 ha in 2024. Potatoes sold as Bulgarian often do not originate from domestic farms, reflecting the significant impact of adverse climate conditions on local production.

Russia

Russia's Potato Harvest to Decline 15% YoY in 2024 Due to Adverse Weather

Russia forecasts the 2024 potato harvest to decline by about 15% year-on-year (YoY) due to adverse weather, though production will still meet domestic needs. Russia remains among the top five global potato producers. As of W43, 83% of potato fields, equivalent to 234 thousand ha of 282 thousand ha, have been harvested. This is a decrease of 23 thousand ha compared to last year. Total output stands at 6 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.3 mmt from the previous year, with an average yield of 26 metric ton (mt) per ha. The leading potato-growing regions, including Bryansk, Tula, Nizhny Novgorod, and Moscow, have experienced notable declines, with Bryansk’s harvest down by 500 thousand mt. The challenging weather included early frosts, excessive soil moisture in some areas, and drought, making harvesting difficult. Additionally, geopolitical tensions have impacted production, particularly in the Bryansk region, where security concerns have reduced planted areas.

Lipetsk Region Races to Complete 2024 Potato Harvest Before Frost

Authorities in Russia's Lipetsk region anticipate that local farmers will complete the harvest of open-ground vegetables and potatoes before the first frost. Favorable weather enabled an earlier-than-usual start to the harvest, with solid progress in autumn fieldwork. Nearly 176.7 thousand mt of potatoes have been harvested as of W43, covering 5.4 thousand ha out of the 6 thousand ha dedicated to this crop. Around 20 regional agricultural enterprises and farms are involved in potato cultivation.

Türkiye

Afyonkarahisar Exports 132 MT of Potatoes to Tunisia

The Turkish Afyonkarahisar Provincial Directorate of Agriculture and Forestry reported that 132 mt of potatoes were exported from the province to Tunisia in 2024. Plant health inspectors from the Plant Production and Plant Health Branch conducted plant health inspections, following export protocols by collecting and analyzing samples to ensure compliance before granting export permission.

Ukraine

Ukrainian Potato Prices Surged to Decade-High Levels Amid Limited Supply

Ukrainian potato prices are notably increasing. Regular monitoring has shown positive price trends for over a month, beginning in the last ten days of Sep-24. Typically, potato prices are maintained in early autumn due to active harvesting and high product volumes entering the market. Farmers usually aim to sell these products quickly, including both medium- and low-quality potatoes unsuitable for long-term storage and high-quality potatoes that producers do not intend to store or cannot keep. This season, however, is exceptional for the Ukrainian potato market. In W43, potatoes are sold in significant production regions at USD 0.48 to 0.73 per kilogram (kg), an average of 18% higher week-on-week (WoW). This trend indicates that potato prices are setting new records for the last decade.

Key market players attribute this price increase to several factors. Many Ukrainian farmers have completed potato shipments directly from the field, leading to sales from storage facilities where prices are typically higher. Moreover, the overall limited supply of potatoes on the market supports prices, primarily due to a significant decrease in yield this season. The hot and dry weather conditions in Jul-24 have been particularly damaging to the future harvest, affecting the overall supply and driving prices upward.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Potato Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Potato Pricing Important Exporters (W43 2023 to W43 2024)

France

In W43, wholesale prices for French potatoes decreased by 5.13% month-on-month (MoM), settling at USD 0.37/kg. This drop is due to challenges during the 2024/25 potato campaign, including adverse weather and increased pressure from plant diseases like mildew. Despite these hurdles, the National Union of Potato Producers (UNPT) remains optimistic, forecasting a balanced production and market outlook. France is on track for a record potato harvest, with a 16% YoY increase in cultivated area, reaching 178,190 ha in 2024. This growth, particularly in northwestern regions, is fueled by solid potato prices and rising demand from chip factories, solidifying France's role in the global potato market.

Netherlands

In W43, wholesale potato prices in the Netherlands held steady WoW at USD 0.16/kg but showed a significant 35.17% increase YoY. This is due to limited supply as planting has progressed rapidly and is nearly complete, with only 10 to 20% of the area still pending. Generally favorable weather, marked by a balance of sunshine and showers, has supported potato growth. However, certain regions face ongoing challenges from heavy soil and lingering wet conditions.

Germany

In W43, the wholesale price of German potatoes fell by 9.52% WoW, 3.39% MoM, and 16.65% YoY, reaching USD 0.57/kg. This price decrease is primarily due to a robust harvest of approximately 12.7 mmt, reflecting a 9% increase from the previous year and 17% above the average yield. The rise in production is due to a 9% expansion in potato planting areas, which is expected to further lower prices from current levels. Despite the larger harvest, challenges remain, particularly with late diseases linked to weather conditions. Notably, potato consumption in Germany has significantly declined, dropping 28% since 1990, as consumer preferences have increasingly shifted towards rice and pasta.

Pakistan

Pakistan's wholesale potato prices increased to USD 0.30/kg, reflecting a 7.19% rise in WoW and a 17.42% increase YoY. This surge is due to several factors, including a 25% reduction in seed availability due to currency depreciation, which has heightened production costs. Furthermore, increased export demand from regional markets like Afghanistan and the Middle East puts pressure on domestic prices. Logistical challenges have also led to localized supply shortages, further contributing to the upward price trend. Overall, these dynamics indicate a challenging environment for potato producers in Pakistan.

Egypt

In W43, Egypt's wholesale potato prices fell to USD 0.32/kg, marking a 3.03% decrease WoW and a significant 22.50% drop YoY. This decline is primarily due to a severe demand-supply imbalance, worsened by climate change and a prolonged shortage of United States (US) dollars that has hindered the import of essential potato seeds. Economic challenges, including high inflation and currency depreciation, have further exacerbated the situation, leading to reduced yields dropping from 14 and 16 mt per acre in 2023 to 9 and 12 mt per acre in 2024. Additionally, local leftover seeds have underperformed, yielding only 7 to 10 mt per acre, resulting in a 35 to 40% decrease in market supply. Egypt's Chambers of Commerce have suggested that the Ministry of Agriculture could help stabilize prices by releasing government stock at cost prices, potentially leading to a price reduction of 25 to 30%.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Enhance Storage and Cooperative Distribution Networks

Ukraine should invest in robust storage facilities across major potato-producing regions that could allow farmers to extend the shelf life of their products, releasing supplies gradually to the market rather than flooding it immediately after harvest. Cooperative-led storage and distribution networks would allow smaller farmers to pool resources, thus stabilizing prices and improving bargaining power. Moreover, this approach could reduce transportation costs and create a more organized flow of potatoes to market throughout the year. By maintaining a steady market supply, this system could help manage price volatility, benefiting both farmers and consumers and ensuring that Ukraine’s potato sector remains competitive despite environmental challenges.

Implement Advanced Weather Monitoring and Harvest Timing Strategies

Russia should adopt advanced weather-monitoring tools and predictive analytics so farmers can optimize harvest times, reducing losses from unexpected frost and moisture. These systems, potentially implemented through regional agricultural programs, could alert farmers to take preventive measures, such as frost covers, which protect crops during sudden cold snaps. Furthermore, regional support for controlled-environment storage could help preserve crop quality for extended periods. This initiative would enable farmers in vulnerable areas like Bryansk to better navigate the effects of weather and regional security concerns, preserving their harvest quality and yield.

Promote Water-Efficient Irrigation and Drought-Resistant Varieties

Bulgaria should introduce drought-resistant potato strains and support farmers in adopting water-efficient irrigation techniques, like drip or micro-spray systems, to help reduce the water needed for cultivation. Partnering with agricultural research institutions to educate farmers on optimal water usage and soil health management would also improve resilience against droughts. Furthermore, government or private grants for installing these irrigation systems could encourage farmers to maintain potato production, reducing the influx of imported potatoes often misrepresented as Bulgarian.

Sources: RG, Lha, Kvedomosti, Eastfruit, Agrotimes