W52: Weekly Beef Update
Live Beef
Poland: In the Face of High Costs, It Is Necessary to Reach for Unused Potential of Cows (Dec 26)
The production potential of HF cows reaches several thousand kg during lactation, which is influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. So it's worth focusing on improving both. Breeding tools available today, such as animal genotyping, allow selecting the best animals from the herd, generating the highest potential profits in the future. Due to this, farmers can use another tool, which is sexed semen, which, thanks to the selection of young females, can be used only on a limited group, so as to ensure a safe number of heifers for the renovation of the herd.
Germany: Almost 2.9 Million Cattle in Bavaria in 2022 (Dec 26)
As reported by the Bavarian State Office for Statistics, as of November 3, 2022, 39.82K cattle farms with a total of 2.87M cattle were counted in Bavaria. On average, there are 72 cattle per keeper. Dairy cows make up the majority of the Bavarian cattle population at 37.6%. More than three quarters of the cattle kept in Bavaria are Simmental cattle.
France: Prevention of Fraud With Bolus (Dec 29)
Using the so-called bolus such as a microchip surrounded by ceramics, animals are to receive additional individual identification. From 2023, the system will be a condition for receiving appropriate subsidies from the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), as well as for delivery to slaughterhouses. Modernization of local production Cattle farmers must provide their animals with a new identification by 15 October 2023 at the latest. Ear tags remain unchanged and are a condition for inclusion in the new system.
Brazil: Registers a Decrease in the Price of the Exported Ton and in Fat Cattle (Dec 30)
In W51, the average export value of fresh beef continued to drop. Based on data reported by the Ministry of Foreign Trade (Secex), 34.72K MT were shipped last week at an average value of USD 4.9K/MT, about USD 93 below the average value of the first 17 days of December. In the period from December to the 24th, Brazil exported 116.6K MT at an average value of USD 4.96K/MT.
Brazil: Price of Fat Cow Rises in São Paulo (Dec 28)
For the last Tuesday of the year, December27, the quotation of the arroba of fat ox and heifer remained stable, however, for the high cow of USD 552.30 each (R$3,000/each). In comparison with the last survey on December 26, there was no change in the quotation of fat cattle, fat cows and fat heifers. For the export of fresh beef, until the 4th week of December, 116.6K MT of fresh beef were exported, with an average daily shipment of 6.8K MT, a result 24.4% higher than December 21, when exports were impacted by the occurrence of atypical cases of mad cow. Cumulative revenue for December was USD 578.3M and YTD revenue was USD 11.77B.
The survey carried out by the Agricultural Defense Agency of Tocantins (Adapec), proved that the last vaccination campaign against foot-and-mouth disease ended last December 17, vaccinated 98.75% of the cattle herd (cattle and buffaloes) in the State, surpassing the goal recommended by the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (Mapa), which is 90% of the herd vaccinated. The president of Adapec, Paulo Lima, celebrated the result obtained. In this last stage of the campaign, cattle of all ages were vaccinated, reinforcing the sanitary defence of the herd in Tocantins. Producers had until December 27 to make the vaccination declaration.
Brazil: Greater Export Intensifies Cattle Slaughter in Minas Gerais (Dec 29)
Rising exports were important for cattle slaughter to continue growing in Minas Gerais. According to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), in the third quarter of 2022, cattle slaughter was 12.5% higher compared to the same period last year. Swine slaughter also grew (2.1%). The production of chickens and milk was lower in the period. In the case of chicken, there was a decrease of 6.8%, and milk, a decrease of 2.4%.
Brazil: Cattle Supply Grows, and Exports Are Recorded, but the Weak Sales in BR Pressures Value (Dec 29)
Even in the face of strong increases in production costs over the last few years, the national livestock sector continued to invest in the field, which resulted in an increase in the supply of animals for slaughter in 2022 as confirmed by IBGE slaughter numbers. Exports continued to be intense throughout the year, especially to China, with monthly volumes reaching over 200K MT in August and September, which already guaranteed a record in annual shipments. Domestic demand, however, was still well below expectations for the sector. Remembering that, of the meat produced in Brazil, about 75% is destined for the domestic market. In view of this, after consecutively renewing real record levels in 2019, 2020 and 2021, average prices for live cattle fell for most of 2022.
Spain: Positive Outlooks for the Management of Spanish Beef Farms (Dec 29)
In this sense, the standard establishes a differentiation between the requirements for newly installed farms and those that already exist. The latter will have a transitory period to comply with certain requirements when necessary, as well as differences derived from their productive aptitude. The maximum capacity for newly installed farms has been set at 850 cattle units (the equivalent of about 725 dairy cows, for example). The objective, explains the MAPA, "is to achieve a harmonious and orderly development of the sector, based on sustainability in all its meanings and the maintenance of the productive fabric in rural areas, avoiding relocation".
Spain: Prohibition of the Opening of Macro-Farms (Dec 27)
It was one of the most anticipated royal decrees in the bovine sector. But finally on December 27, the Council of Ministers approved the norm that establishes the basic norms of management of the farms of beef and milk cows in Spain. And as the Minister of Agriculture, Luis Planas, had already advanced in the congress of the Union of Small Farmers (UPA) held in April last year, the document puts a stop to the opening of farms with more than 850 cattle units (some 750 dairy cows) with the aim of protecting small and medium-sized farms.
Spain: The War Triggers the Cost Crisis in a Cattle Farm That Reduces Its Herd (Dec 30)
The start of the war in Ukraine in 2022 has had endless consequences for livestock, which was left without access to this European granary and had to face the enormous increase in energy prices, which deepened the cost crisis more than they were already dragging and it has ended up diminishing the cabin. At first, the most affected link in the livestock value chain, and without the capacity to pass on the rise in costs, was primary production. However, as the months went by, the increase in costs ended up affecting the entire chain and turned the crisis into a problem of cost and not of margins among the operators, as the main representatives of the sector have expressed to Efeagro.
Argentina: Farm Prices Lost the 2022 Final Against Costs (Dec 26)
In the last 12 months, between December 2021 and December 2022, and while inflation (CPI) was 96%, the price of the steer (300 to 390 kg) rose 30%. That of the Hilton steer went up 28%, that of the cow conserved 37% and that of the wintering calf did so only 18%. In the same period, the net exchange rate for bovine meat increased by 63%, while a weighted livestock inputs index (personnel, pastures, winter pastures, corn silos, roll-making, corn, wire, diesel) grew 95% in pesos and 19% in official dollars. The cost of a health plan for a breeding farm rose 85%, while the foot-and-mouth disease vaccine did 99%. The result of the exploitation of a rented breeding field (420 ha), in the last 12 months, went from USD 15K (2.7M pesos) of profit to USD 10K (1.8 million pesos) per year, and the profitability on the capital invested in said exploitation it dropped from 15% in December 2021 to 3.70% in December 2022.
Argentina: The Argentine Rural Society Warned About the Crisis That Cattle Farming Is Experiencing (Dec 27)
Farm prices lagging behind inflation is the main factor hurting activity. They ask to eliminate the obstacles that still exist to exports, reduce the tax pressure and financing. The Argentine Rural Society (SRA) issued a statement prepared by its Meat Commission in which it warned about the critical situation that cattle farming is experiencing, which "lost against inflation and ends the year red hot." According to the SRA, 2022 is closing with numerous negative aspects in the balance, which inevitably "will leave factors that will condition activity in the coming months." The main factor that plays against the activity, according to the SRA, is that in a complex economic context, standing farms brought back their nominal prices, which fell with respect to inflation.
Argentina: Climate and Political Livestock (Dec 29)
The best news of December for the farmers was, without a doubt, the rain. One of all the variables that trample farm prices was released. Large cattle-raising areas of the country received the expected, and urgent, rainfall. Many areas remain in a state of emergency, in others much of the spring was lost, but the November rains change expectations as the water is expected to turn to grass. The dry season was the only variable that managed to lower the prices of wintering calves; Until now, neither the frozen prices of the fat, nor the red margins of the corrals, had been able to do it.
The work determined the most profitable options for the producer and for the supplier who buys live cattle, slaughters and sells them for consumption. The Argentine Association of Limousin Breeders (AACL) commissioned a study by a team of specialists on the impact of the animal biotype on the meat business. Pen performance and beef performance of castrated Limousin animals and young whole male (MEJ), Limflex (50% Limousin and 50% Angus) and pure British animals were measured. The objective was to measure the value of the animal biotype as a tool to improve livestock margins and contribute to decision making.
Belarus: Approved a Plan for the Harvesting of Cattle Skins (Dec 26)
The plan for 2023 for the procurement of raw hides of cattle (cattle) for state needs was approved in Belarus, BelTA reported on December 24. The corresponding decree of the Belarusian government was published on the National Legal Internet Portal. In 2023, it is planned to procure 940.3K cowhides. The biggest plans for the procurement of the mentioned raw materials are assigned to the Brest and Minsk regions.
Bulgaria: The Black Economy Continues to Be a Scourge in Beef Cattle in 2022 (Dec 27)
After state aid for the sale of beef was launched on a pilot basis two years ago at the insistence of the industry, at the end of 2022 the Ministry of Agriculture opened such a reception again. This is great, but for such a measure cattle farmers should know in advance. Last time they weren't prepared and didn't make the most of it. The third emergency aid with RDP money for calves up to 24 months was again a step in the right direction, but there farmers also ran into problems. Many farmers had already reached the support ceiling during the previous crisis aid. It is absurd to have a limit of USD 265.40K (250K euros) on Ukrainian aid, and on the next one they put the de minimis ceiling on you, which is USD 15.92K (15K euros).
The National Korean Beef Association has demanded that the government and Nonghyup immediately implement survival measures such as purchase and support for the difference in feed price increase to stabilise cattle prices. The Korean Beef Association raised its voice in a statement saying that Korean cattle farmers are being driven to the edge of a cliff due to plunging prices of Korean cattle every day and feed prices soaring by more than 60%, despite the self-rescue efforts of farm units. In addition, they sharply criticised the current situation, saying, “Cows are eating cows,” saying that a steady stream of farmhouses went bankrupt due to farms unable to even pay for production costs.
Turkey: Livestock Improvement (Dec 27)
The General Directorate of Agricultural Research and Policies (TAGEM) implemented the Domestic Cattle Breeding Project in the Hands of the Public. Within the scope of the project, it was planned to breed "Domestic Black" and "Grey Breed" cattle, which stand out with their endurance and contentment. Global warming and climate changes have a significant impact on animal production and have a direct impact on animal yields, lifestyles, endurance and diversity. With the project, it is envisaged to ensure the sustainability of local genetic resources and to benefit from the advantages of care and feeding. With this project, domestic cattle breeding will be carried out by the public for the first time. Project studies are being initiated in 2 provinces, in Ankara for "Native Land" and in Balıkesir for "Grey Breed" cattle.
Ukraine: Due to the War, 233.7K Cows Were Lost (Dec 26)
As of December 1, 1.38M cows were kept in Ukraine, which is 13.9%, 233.7K less than 2021. During the period of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine lost 172.7K cows. According to the preliminary data of the State Statistics Service, which does not take into account the data on the currently occupied regions, the industrial sector (MTF) lost 37.7K cows. However, according to the estimates of the Association of Milk Producers, losses in the MTF exceeded 50K cows.
Ukraine: In Volyn, Rabies Was Detected in Cattle (Dec 30)
A case of rabies in cattle was recorded in the Lutsk district of the Volyn region. This was reported in the Head Office of the State Production and Consumer Service in the Volyn region. The villages of Ozdiv, Ratniv and SGPP "Rat" (farm 1,2) of the Lutsk district have been declared unfavourable for cattle rabies. A plan of measures to eradicate the disease has been approved. As reported, cases of rabies in cattle were also registered in Ivano-Frankivsk region this year.
Indonesia: After the Fmd Outbreak, W Java Focuses on Cattle Population Recovery (Dec 31)
The West Java Provincial Food and Livestock Security Office (DKPP) was striving to recover the livestock population in the province following the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak by distributing additional cattle. "There will be disbursement of about 750 sheep and beef cattle (to breeders)," head of the West Java DKPP, Moh. Arifin Soedjayana, informed. In addition, at least 138 imported dairy cows will be provided to breeders in collaboration with the Indonesian Dairy Cooperative Association (GKSI). According to Soedjayana, 2022 was a challenging year for the development of the livestock sector in the province, which is one of the cattle production centres of Indonesia, due to the FMD outbreak.
Fresh Beef
Global: Beef Trade Forecasts in 2023 (Dec 26)
USDA estimates suggested that beef production will drop slightly during 2023 given that the drop in production in the EU and North America will be greater than the increases registered in Brazil, China and Australia. In the case of Brazil, it would grow by 1% and in China there will be more cattle for slaughter, as in Australia. Regarding foreign trade, exports will fall by 1% due to lower demand, especially from China.
US: Beef Quotes Rise on CME Due to Slaughter Difficulties (Dec 26)
From December 16 to December 23, the cattle and pork futures market on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange developed in the same direction. Although during the week the quotes for pork and cattle meat were not stable, by the end of the week, on the last day before Christmas, they went up sharply and turned out to be higher than the values recorded as of December 16. Futures for live cattle fell on Thursday due to severe frosts that came to the US caused a delay in slaughter.
US: Beef Has Become Cheaper Than Pork and Chicken Meat (Dec 28)
US beef production was at record highs by the end of 2022 due to an abnormal drought. Animal farmers, were unable to feed their livestock, hence forced to drastically reduce their herds, which led to a surplus of meat on the market. At the same time, wholesale prices for beef decreased significantly compared to last year. According to Anderson, this will soon be reflected in retail prices. Beef has become cheaper than pork and chicken in recent months, as beef prices have dropped significantly. According to the consumer price index, retail prices for pork and chicken have decreased compared to last month, but remain significantly higher than last year's, the expert said. In 2023, the total US cattle population is expected to decline by at least 3% compared to last year, as the drought has killed a large number of heifers.
US: Meat Production Rises (Dec 30)
Red meat production increased slightly in November, as beef and pork production increased MoM, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Commercial beef production last month rose to 1.1M MT (2.424B pounds), the agency said in a report. This represents an increase from 1.09M MT (2.404B pounds) in October and 1.08M MT (2.391B pounds) produced in November 2021.
US: Record Sales of Beef to East Asia Markets in Volume and Value (Dec 30)
United States beef exports to East Asia in 2022 broke the record reached last year, both in volume and value, according to a report by the US’s Department of Agriculture (USDA). East Asia (South Korea, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and Taiwan,) was the leading destination for US beef. According to the USDA, exports between January and September reached USD 6.6B, surpassing the previous record set in the same period of 2011 with USD 5.4B, an increase of 22%. In volume, the increase was 6.4% over the same period. Unlike in other East Asian economies, where the United States and Australia are the two leading suppliers, in China/Hong Kong, the United States competes with several South American suppliers, namely Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay.
Ireland: A Review of the Erratic Changes in Beef Price in 2022 (Dec 31)
Most beef farmers will look back on 2022 as a positive year overall for beef prices, despite significant price fluctuation throughout the year. Factory quotes opened in January 2022 at approximately USD 4.57/kg (€4.30) on the grid for heifers, with 5c/kg less being quoted for steers. Fast forward to the last week of May 2022 and factories were quoting as high as USD 5.86/kg (€5.35) and USD 5.74/kg (€5.40) on the grid for heifers. This marked an increase of over USD 1.06/kg (€1) in beef price in less than five months.
Ireland: USD 6.37/KG Is ‘Absolute Minimum’ Beef Price for Winter Finishers to Seek (Jan 1)
“USD 6.37/kg (€6) is the absolute minimum beef price winter finishers should be pushing for in spring 2023,” the Irish Cattle and Sheep Farmers’ Association’s (ICSA’s) beef chairperson Edmund Graham has said. Graham said unless this price was secured for beef cattle finished over the winter months, “winter finishers were looking at very bleak prospects”. “Factory prices will have to increase steadily throughout the first few months of 2023 for finishers to have any chance of breaking even”.
Poland: Prices of Beef (Dec 29)
From 12 to 18 December this year, compared to the previous week's quotations, a decrease in the prices of beef were registered. In W50, beef was sold at USD 2.41/kg ( PLN 10.61), down 1% WoW and 4% MoM but up 19% YoY.
France: Calm Beef Trade and Stable Prices (Dec 30)
Trade activity in W52 of 2022 was reduced, with businesses with little need ahead of year-end inventories. The vast majority of markets were cancelled during the holidays, but the supply of slaughterhouses was planned to compensate for the slowdown in trading activity (private or cooperative) also on holidays. Prices were relatively stable, but the big unknown for 2023 will be how quickly and under what conditions the applications of the Egalim law 2 will be implemented, whether in commercial negotiations between manufacturers and distributors, or in contractualisation, which is coming back to the fore, driven by the need to secure the supply of industrial tools. Nevertheless, with regard to the prices currently charged, breeders do not seem in a hurry to enter into this process.
Bulgaria: Beef Cattle Exports to Turkey Moved the Market and Prices (Jan 1)
Good news for 2022 is that the beef cattle sector in Bulgaria received certificates and possible export to Turkey of two technological groups, small weaned calves and large fattened animals. Several depots were identified that collected calves and had quotas, which definitely moved the market. Record high purchase prices for beef were reported for the first time in 2022 in the months of May-June, when traders did not bargain. There were deals that had never happened before, USD 3.26/kg (BGN 6) for fattened animals weighing 600-700 kg.
South Korea: Consumer Demand for Beef in South Korea Strengthens (Dec 26)
The ongoing revival of South Korea’s food service sector strengthened consumer demand for beef and pork in 2022, according to a recent USDA GAIN report. This positive trend is expected to continue in 2023 as Korea’s hotel, restaurant, and institutional sectors gain momentum in a post-Covid market. However, the pace and scale of food service growth is unclear as the country grapples with notable macroeconomic challenges such as inflation and a depreciating currency.
South Korea: Hanwoo Meat Is Popular in Southeast Asian Markets (Dec 27)
Hanwoo beef is also gaining great popularity among Southeast Asian consumers. The Rural Development Administration (Director Jae-ho Cho) announced the results of the ‘Korean Beef Meat Purchasing Propensity Survey’ conducted jointly with the Korea Industrial Development Institute (Director Hoon Baek) for consumers in four Southeast Asian countries. The survey was conducted through one-on-one meetings with 700 consumers using high-end markets (markets) in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, and Malaysia, which are promising export destinations for Hanwoo meat, from September to October. As a result of the survey, consumers in all four countries gave more than 4.3 points out of 5 points to “good taste and flavour” and “juicy” as the reason why they enjoy eating Korean beef. In particular, consumers in Vietnam (4.44 points), Hong Kong (4.39 points), and China (4.12 points) preferred Hanwoo beef because it is “meat with good intramuscular fat content (marbling).” Malaysian consumers said they like it because it has a “chewy texture” (4.26 points). When purchasing Hanwoo beef, Chinese, Hong Kong, and Vietnamese consumers all ranked sirloin, ribs, and ribs as the top three.
China: Meat Demand Will Maintain Higher Prices if China Continues to Improve Its Economy (Dec 27)
The director of Faxcarne, Rafael Tardáguila, affirmed that the better economic activity in China, the biggest catalyst for beef of bovine origin, is giving the main Asian importers the incentive to increase demand in the post-Chinese New Year period. This perspective was given around the fact that the Asian giant faced economic problems at the beginning of September caused by the health policies applied as a result of a resurgence of Covid cases, causing the wind to face the exporting countries. In this context, the consultant indicated that although there was a downward correction by the World Bank towards China's economic growth of around 4% by 2023, everything seems to indicate that the pace of purchases would begin to move at a higher rate.
