Ukrainian Soybean Production Expected to Increase in 2022

Ukrainian soybean production is expected to increase in 2022 as more than 1,200 hectares under soybeans are out of hostile territories. Crop condition appears to be good, with an average yield of 2.5MT/ha expected. Since the beginning of the war, only 373,000mt of soybeans have been exported from Ukraine with 20% going via road, 35% through railways, and 45% exported through seaports. 83% of exports were destined for Turkey, Germany, Romania, Poland, the Netherlands, and Italy. In the current year, market experts expect about 650,000 MT of GMO-free soybeans from Ukrainian farmers.

On the other hand, soybean demand and subsequent processing in the EU is expected to decrease due to an overall livestock headcount decrease. Furthermore, due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and subsequent sanctions, soybean exports to Russia and Belarus are expected to decrease. The decreased demand could result in difficult market conditions for Ukrainian exporters.

Also, with the ongoing war, traders in the soybean market try not to engage in long term contracts and prefer spot and short-term contracts. Previously, traders offered to purchase crops 2-3 years in advance. In week 31 soybean prices are good for farmers, with market experts urging producers to take advantage of the good prices.