W12 Black Pepper Update: Global Pepper Market Faces Fluctuations as Vietnam's Output Declines, Brazil and India Poised for Growth

Published 2024년 4월 2일

In W12 in the black pepper landscape, global pepper production in 2024 is expected to decrease by 1.1% YoY due to reduced output in Vietnam, while Brazil and India anticipate production increases, dependent on weather conditions. Despite stable prices initially, global pepper prices fluctuated during the week. Additionally, Vietnam foresees a 10.5% YoY reduction in pepper output for 2024 but experienced a month-on-month increase in Feb-24 exports. Vietnam's significant role as a pepper supplier to the US underscores its continued importance in the global pepper market.

Global Pepper Production to Dip in 2024, Vietnam's Output Declines

The International Pepper Community (IPC) forecasts a 1.1% year-on-year (YoY) decrease in global pepper output in 2024 due to reduced production in Vietnam. Meanwhile, Brazil and India's output is expected to increase, contingent upon weather conditions. Brazil's Pará state has concluded its pepper harvest, with 2023 production reaching 95 thousand metric tons (mt) and a forecasted increase to 105 thousand mt in 2024 despite weather issues like drought could impact the upcoming crop. Organic pepper output in Brazil is estimated at 600 mt annually.

Global Pepper Prices Show Stability with Some Fluctuations in W12

On March 18, global pepper prices remained stable in various countries worldwide. In Indonesia, Lampung black pepper price stood at USD 4,169/mt. Malaysia's Kuching black pepper ASTA is maintained at USD 4,900/mt. In Brazil, the black pepper ASTA 570 price remained unchanged at USD 4,400/mt. Vietnam reported steady export prices for black pepper grades 500 and 550 grams per liter (g/l) at USD 4,100/mt and USD 4,200/mt, respectively.

However, on March 19, prices experienced some fluctuations. Lampung black pepper in Indonesia saw a sharp increase of 3.09%, reaching USD 4,302/mt, while Brazilian black pepper ASTA 570 declined by 0.57% to USD 4,375/mt. On March 22, the pepper market experienced an increase in Indonesia, with Lampung black pepper rising slightly by 0.42% to USD 4,305/mt, while prices remained unchanged in other countries.

Vietnam's Pepper Output is Expected to Decline in 2024 Amid Climate Challenges

Vietnam's pepper output is forecasted at 170 thousand mt in 2024, marking a 10.5% YoY decrease due to limited supply caused by climate change impacts and a reduction in pepper-growing areas. Vietnam's pepper exports in Feb-24 reached 18 thousand mt valued at USD 73 million, showing a month-on-month (MoM) increase of 3.1% in volume and 5.2% in value. However, compared to Feb-23, exports decreased by 35.2% in volume and 12.5% in value. From Jan-24 to Feb-24, Vietnam exported approximately 35 thousand mt of pepper worth USD 143 million, reflecting a 12.3% decrease in volume but a 12.9% increase in value compared to the same period in 2023. Notably, the average export price of Vietnam's pepper during that period reached USD 4,041/mt, marking a significant 28.7% YoY increase. In 2023, Vietnam became the largest pepper supplier to the United States (US), accounting for 77.23% of total US imports, up from 73.85% in 2022.