W12 Canola/Rapeseed Update: EU Canola Processing Hits Record High in First Half of 2023/24 Season, Bulgarian Rapeseed Exports Plummet to Six-Year Low

Published 2024년 3월 30일

In W12 in the canola oil landscape, the EU saw a record-high canola processing in the first half of the 2023/24 agricultural season, reaching 12.8 mmt, with notable increases in Germany and Poland but contractions in France and the Netherlands. However, forecasts suggest a seasonal decline in processed rapeseed quantities in the EU's second half of the season due to reduced rapeseed supply and insufficient imports. Meanwhile, Bulgarian rapeseed exports have stagnated, hitting a six-season low, with farmers considering reduced cultivation due to dry weather conditions. In Canada, rapeseed production for the 2024/25 season is forecasted to decrease slightly, leading to tightening ending stock levels compared to the previous season.

EU's Processed Canola Reaches Record High in First Half of 2023/24 Season

European Union’s (EU) processed canola quantities reached a record level of 12.8 million metric tons (mmt) in the first half of the 2023/24 agricultural season, which began on July 1, 2023. This represents an increase of 650 thousand metric tons (mt) compared to the 2022/23 season. The significant rise in processed rapeseed quantities was particularly notable in Germany, with an increase of 420 thousand mt, and Poland, with an increase of 140 thousand mt. However, France and the Netherlands experienced a contraction in processing. The growth in processing also contributed to a strong half-year result, reaching record levels of 6.67 mmt in the Oct-23 to Dec-23 period, which is 200 thousand mt higher than the same period of the 2022/23 season.

Nevertheless, preliminary assessments suggest a seasonal decline in processed rapeseed quantities in the EU during the second half of the season from Jan-24 to June-24, with estimates ranging from 11.9 to 12 mmt. This anticipated decline is due to the contraction of rapeseed supply in the EU's internal market and the expected insufficient imports, primarily from Australia.

Bulgarian Rapeseed Exports Hit Six-Season Low Amidst Challenging Market Conditions

Bulgarian rapeseed exports stagnated in recent months, a typical occurrence for this time of the season. As of W12, Bulgarian companies have exported around 0.11 mmt of rapeseed, the lowest figure in the past six seasons, marking a negative record for the 2023/24 season. This export volume is half what it was in the previous season and falls more than 60% below the five-year average of 0.27 mmt. Forecasts indicate that farmers will cultivate less than 100 thousand hectares (ha) of canola in the upcoming season, with an estimated harvest of around 0.25 to 0.28 mmt, contingent upon favorable weather conditions. Some farmers in southern Bulgaria have reported the need to replant canola multiple times due to dry weather conditions. Given the prevailing market conditions, farmers assess whether to allocate additional funds to canola production.

Canadian Rapeseed Projections for the 2024/25 Season

The Agriculture and Agri-Food of Canada (AAFC) has issued a supply and demand report highlighting potential changes in Canadian rapeseed stocks for the 2024/25 season (August to July). Canadian rapeseed production for 2024/25 is forecasted to reach 18.1 mmt, slightly lower than the previous estimate of 18.365 mmt in Feb-24 and marginally down from the 18.328 mmt harvested in 2023/24. Rapeseed exports are expected to remain stable at 7.7 mmt in 2024/25, consistent with the previous season's volume of 7 mmt. Despite minor adjustments to domestic use, ending rapeseed stock in 2024/25 is projected to tighten to 1.65 mmt, a decrease from the 1.95 mmt forecasted in Feb-24 and a decline from the 2 mmt recorded in 2023/24.