1. Weekly News

Global

Olive Oil Consumption Rebounds but Faces Uncertain Long-Term Growth

The public debate around olive oil consumption centers on two key aspects: a short-term recovery and long-term growth prospects. After a difficult two years, consumption has rebounded by 10 to 15%, offering optimism in the near term. However, sustaining growth from 3 million to 3.5 million tons annually remains uncertain, particularly at price levels viable for small producers. Global olive cultivation is expanding, and increased yields may pressure prices, risking sustainability for less organized growers. According to the International Olive Council (IOC), per capita olive oil consumption in major non-European Union (EU) markets remains low — just 0.4 kilogram (kg) in Japan and Brazil, 1.1 kg in the United States (US), and 1.2 kg in Canada — suggesting strong potential for expansion, especially if tariffs are avoided. China shows negligible consumption at only 0.04 kg per capita. In contrast, EU countries like Greece (9.3 kg), Spain (7.5 kg), and Italy (7.4 kg) lead consumption but show stagnant trends. Outside the EU, Syria reports the highest non-EU per capita use at 2.6 kg.

Argentina

Buenos Aires Launches ‘La Ruta del Olivo’ to Promote Olive Oil Production and Rural Tourism

Buenos Aires Province has launched La Ruta del Olivo, an initiative integrating olive oil production, tourism, and regional development across 13 municipalities in the southwestern region. Spearheaded by the Ministry of Agrarian Development, the project encompasses over 2,500 hectares of olive groves and aims to position the region as a high-quality producer of olive oil and table olives. It includes agrotourism circuits, tastings, cultural events, and training programs, while also declaring an annual ‘Semana del Olivo Bonaerense.’ The country ranks 9th globally in table olive and 11th in olive oil output—this project strengthens local value chains, supports rural livelihoods, and enhances Buenos Aires' international agro-food potential.

Italy

Italy Boosts EU Olive Oil Imports Amid Sharp Stock Declines in 2025

As of March 31, 2025, Italy increased its extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) purchases from EU markets by 53%, reaching 57,876 tons, compensating for a sharp domestic and non-EU supply drop. Total EVOO stocks, including from domestic production and imports, fell by 14.6% year-on-year (YoY) to 153,347 tons. This reflects a 35.5% drop in Italian-origin and a 22.6% drop in non-EU volumes. Bulk EVOO accounted for 131,686 tons (mainly domestic and EU-sourced), while packaged EVOO stocks stood at 21,661 tons. Overall olive oil availability declined 12.3% YoY to 212,863 tons, mainly due to a weak harvest. Nearly half of the national stock is concentrated in southern regions, particularly Apulia (30%) and Calabria (11%), with Bari and Perugia leading at the provincial level.

Spain

Strong Spanish Production Drives EU Olive Oil Market Outlook for 2024/25

In the 2024/25 campaign, Spain led EU olive oil production with 1.42 million tons, far surpassing Italy (248,000 tons), Greece (250,000 tons), and Portugal (195,000 tons), bringing total EU output to over 2.1 million tons. According to the European Commission’s (EC) latest analysis, domestic consumption across the EU is expected to exceed 1.37 million tons, while exports could approach 1.6 million tons, over 900,000 tons from Spain alone. Italy is projected to import more than 475,000 tons due to low production, and Spain will likely import around 242,700 tons. Ending stocks suggest Spain will carry over about 448,000 tons into the next season, while Italy and Greece will have minimal volumes, signaling potential market tightness ahead.

Tunisia

Tunisia Prepares Export Reform Amid Record Olive Oil Harvest and Rising Global Demand

Tunisia is set to revise its olive oil export regulations to boost competitiveness and tap into new international markets, following a 41% surge in exports between Nov-24 and Feb-25. The Industry Minister announced the upcoming simplification of technical export requirements, aligning with the country's anticipated record harvest of 340,000 tons, a 75% increase over the previous season. This would place Tunisia among the world’s top producers during a year when global production is projected to rise by 32%. While EU-Tunisia trade ties remain strong, the sector remains cautious amid uncertainty over a potential 28% US tariff, which could impact future export momentum.

Tunisia Strengthens Global Olive Oil Position with Focus on Premium Packaged Exports

Tunisia has secured its status as the world's fourth-largest olive oil exporter, holding a 10% share of the global market, according to the Trade Minister. In 2024, exports reached an estimated value of USD 1.61 billion (TND 4.8 billion), expanding to 64 international markets, up from 55 the previous year. Notably, packaged olive oil now represents 21% of total exports, signaling a shift toward higher value-added products. This progress is supported by national strategies such as the Exporti and AMIT programs (entrepreneurship programs), co-financed by the EU and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, which promote certification, quality, and tradition. Tunisia's efforts aim to position its olive oil as a premium product in demanding markets like the EU, through trade fairs, business-to-business (B2B) meetings, and international buyer engagement.

United States

US Olive Oil Imports Show Significant Growth from China and Canada

The US was the top importer of olive oil between Oct-24 and Jan-25, with 109,415 tons, a slight 0.3% increase over the same period last year. Brazil ranked second, importing 20,966 tons (-18.6%), followed by Canada at 17,545 tons (+78.7%) and China at 10,034 tons (+84%). Spain was the leading global supplier with 63,814 tons (- 1.4%) followed by Tunisia at 58,713 tons (+30.4%) and Italy at 44,703 tons (-5.4%). Per capita consumption in the US is 1.1 kg, while Canada’s is 1.2 kg. In contrast, Brazil and Japan have very low consumption rates, at just 0.4 kg each. Greece leads the EU in olive oil consumption, with 9.3 kg per capita, followed by Spain at 7.5 kg and Italy at 7.4 kg.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Olive Oil Pricing Important  Exporters (W17 2024 to W17 2025) 

Spain

In W17, Spain’s olive oil price was USD 4.49/kg, reflecting a slight week-on-week (WoW) decline of 0.22% due to short-term market adjustments and currency exchange rate fluctuations. Prices increased by 6.40% month-on-month (MoM), while YoY they remain significantly lower at -44.98%, largely driven by market saturation from a larger-than-expected harvest, weakened global demand, and new US tariffs that undermined export competitiveness. Although the EUR briefly strengthened—supporting prices in USD terms—long-term structural challenges such as an aging farming population, low profitability, and climatic stress (drought, water shortages, and reduced solar radiation) continue to exert downward pressure. Additionally, Spain’s high carry-over stocks of 448,000 tons raise oversupply concerns for the 2024/25 season, despite maintaining its position as the EU’s leading producer with 1.42 million tons expected and strong export activity.

Italy

In W17, Italy’s olive oil price reached USD 10.93/kg, increasing 1.49% WoW, 8.00% MoM, and 7.05% YoY. These gains are driven by persistent domestic supply shortages, as Italian-origin EVOO stocks dropped sharply by 35.5% YoY due to severe climatic stress—particularly drought and heatwaves in key producing regions like Puglia and Sicily—and the alternate-bearing cycle that naturally curbs output. Despite lower domestic production, firm international demand has kept prices elevated. Additionally, Italy has ramped up olive oil imports by 53% within the EU to offset supply gaps, with over 475,000 tons expected to be imported, underscoring its growing reliance on external sources, particularly Spain.

Greece

In W17, Greece’s olive oil price rose to USD 4.44/kg, showing a 1.37% WoW and 8.82% MoM increase, though prices remain significantly lower YoY at a 44.22% drop. The YoY decline reflects a strong production rebound after previous supply constraints, which eased pressure on prices. However, the recent upward trend is driven by tightening availability and steady demand as mid-2025 approaches. Although production is estimated at a stable 250,000 tons for 2024/25, minimal stock levels limit supply flexibility. While Greece has partially regained yield-driven price stability, the market remains sensitive to ongoing climate risks.

Tunisia

In W17, Tunisia’s olive oil price reached USD 4.58/kg, marking a 1.55% WoW and 6.26% MoM increase, though prices remain sharply down YoY by 45.41%. The YoY drop stems from a record-high harvest (+75%) and a 41% surge in exports between Nov-24 and Feb-25, which added significant volumes to the global supply and suppressed prices. Recent price gains, however, are supported by rising global demand and Tunisia’s strategic shift toward value-added, premium packaged exports. These efforts, alongside ongoing export regulation reforms and market diversification into 64 countries, are helping stabilize prices despite external tariff risks.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Expand Market Penetration in Low-Consumption Countries

With per capita consumption at only 0.4 kg in Brazil and Japan, 1.1 kg in the US, and 1.2 kg in Canada, exporters should prioritize education-driven marketing campaigns in these underpenetrated markets. Sampling programs, health-focused branding, and collaborations with local chefs or nutrition influencers can help build olive oil awareness and drive long-term growth. Trade barriers like tariffs should also be proactively addressed through trade negotiations and bilateral agreements.

Support Small Producers in an Oversupplied Market

As global olive cultivation expands, rising yields may continue pressuring prices, especially for small and less-organized producers. Governments and cooperatives should implement support programs such as yield-based subsidies, cooperative consolidation incentives, and digital tools for traceability and farm management. Technical training and access to international certifications (like organic or protected designation of origin) can also increase resilience and competitiveness.

Leverage Italy’s Import Needs for Strategic Partnerships

Italy’s sharp 35.5% YoY decline in domestic EVOO stocks and 53% increase in EU imports represent an opportunity for coordinated supply agreements. Countries like Spain, Greece, and Tunisia can formalize long-term B2B deals or private-label partnerships with Italian packers and distributors, particularly for premium and organic variants. These deals could include co-branding to appeal to Italian consumers accustomed to local origin.

Sources: Tridge, Agro Popular, Canal Rural, Elaias Karpos, Financial Food, IHA, La Voz de Galicia, Mercacei, Oleo, Oli Merca