W32: Canola & Rapeseed Update

In W32 in the canola landscape, on Monday, August 7, the November futures on the Paris stock exchange fell 1.6% to USD 512/metric tons (mt), adding 4.7% for the week on forecasts of a cut in the European Union (EU) crop, although the EU market now sees an increase in offers of both domestic and Ukrainian rapeseed. On Friday, August 11, rapeseed futures fell 1% to USD 496.71/mt, a 30.8% year-on-year (YoY) decrease, and a 3.7% week-on-week (WoW) decrease.

In the latest report published on Friday, August 11, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a global decrease in the rapeseed harvest in the 2023/24 season by 2.47 million metric tons (mmt) to 86.07 mmt compared to the 2022/23 season. In the EU, production is forecasted to increase by 1.46 mmt to reach 21.0 mmt, while Canada's harvest is expected to stay at the same level as last year, 20.3 mmt. In Ukraine, the harvest is set to grow by 0.6 mmt to 4.1 mmt, whereas Australia's expected harvest will decrease by 3.4 mmt to 4.9 mmt. Furthermore, France's 2023 rapeseed production forecast has been revised downward to 4.34 mmt from the July estimate of 4.64 mmt, marking a 4% annual decrease. Also, the projected yield of oilseeds is adjusted to 3.23 mt per hectare (ha), lower than the previous month's forecast of 3.44 mt/ha.

In Podkarpacie, Poland, the rapeseed harvest is delayed roughly by a week and a half compared to the previous year. Although rapeseed yields are slightly improved this year, their importance is waning due to high production costs, resulting in fewer farms choosing to cultivate it. This decline is evident, with about 20% of farms opting for rapeseed growth. In contrast, maize cultivation is becoming more popular in the region due to its easier cultivation process.

Since the beginning of 2023, Russia's Krasnoyarsk Territory has surged its grain and oilseed exports by 2.2 times compared to early 2022, reaching 229 thousand mt. The primary exported product is rapeseed, accounting for 129.4 thousand mt. Moreover, the main export destinations are Belarus, with a significant share going to rapeseed 92.4 thousand mt, followed by China, receiving 31.9 thousand mt, and Kazakhstan importing 5.1 thousand mt rapeseed. In the Lipetsk region of Russia, harvesting of spring wheat and rapeseed has commenced, resulting in over 630 thousand mt of grain from 120 thousand ha.

In Belarus, winter rapeseed for grain was harvested from 313.9 thousand ha, yielding 883.7 thousand mt at an average yield of 2.81 mt/ha, covering 95.3% of the targeted area. In Ukraine, rapeseed was harvested from 1.182 million ha, amounting to 3.32 mmt, with an average yield of 2.81 mt/ha, representing 86% of the planned area.

Lastly, in Brazil, in Emater/RS-Ascar de Ijuí, the canola crop is progressing positively, showing strong growth despite reduced soil moisture. In the Santa Maria region, the canola planting area estimate is nearly 10 thousand ha. About 70% of the crops are in the vegetative development stage, while 15% are flowering and another 15% are in the grain-filling phase.