1. Weekly News

Global

Global Sunflower Output to Rebound in 2025/26

Global sunflower production in 2025/26 is projected to rise by over 7% year-on-year (YoY) to 63.5 million metric tons (mmt), rebounding from the weakest output in four seasons. Ukraine's harvest is forecast at 13.5 mmt, up 35% YoY but still below the 2023/24 level of 15.5 mmt, while other Black Sea and European producers also face weather-related constraints. Despite a stronger supply, low ending stocks from the current season will limit processing growth, with volumes expected at 53.2 mmt, below the 2023/24 peak of 55.5 mmt. These dynamics suggest that while global availability will improve, sunflower oil prices may remain supported by tight stocks and cautious processing recovery.

India

India's Sunflower Oil Imports Drop to Three-Year Low

India's sunflower oil imports are projected to decrease by 20% in 2024/25 to 2.8 mmt, a three-year low, as buyers shift toward cheaper soybean oil amid high palm oil prices and limited canola availability. Despite this decline, Ukraine has expanded its market presence, with its share of India's sunflower oil imports rising to 23% from 12% last season, while Russia remains dominant at 58%. The reduced Indian demand may pressure sunflower oil prices globally, though Ukraine's stronger foothold in the Indian market could help sustain export volumes in the near term.

Ukraine

USDA Cuts Ukraine’s Sunflower Output Forecast but Expects Stronger Oil Exports

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered Ukraine's sunflower production forecast for 2025/26 by 0.5 mmt to 13.5 mmt, while sunflower oil output decreased by 215,000 metric tons (mt) to 5.6 mmt compared to last month. Despite this cut, production remains 500,000 mt above last year, with oil output also up 342,000 mt YoY, supporting higher export potential, estimated to rise by 275,000 mt. Persistent drought since spring continues to limit yields in many regions, but Ukraine is still expected to maintain strong export flows, with tighter global supplies likely to lend support to sunflower oil prices in the near term.

Ukraine's Sunflower Oil Supply Secure Despite Harvest Shortfalls and Regional Strains

Ukraine's sunflower oil sector remains stable despite a weaker-than-expected 2025 sunflower harvest, with production sufficient to cover domestic demand and sustain export flows. Crop losses in the southern and eastern regions, driven by drought and conflict, have heightened financial strains on farmers, particularly in Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk, where many lack resources for autumn sowing. While the harvest is delayed by about two weeks due to mixed weather, higher yields in western and northern regions are offsetting losses, supporting expectations of a total grain harvest near 56 mmt, with up to 40 mmt available for export. However, ongoing challenges such as demining, shelling near frontline areas, and limited access to state financial support continue to threaten long-term agribusiness resilience.

Drought Reduces Ukraine’s 2025 Sunflower Harvest but National Supply Remains Stable

Ukraine's 2025 sunflower harvest is facing reductions due to drought and adverse weather, particularly in southern regions such as Odessa and parts of Kherson, where up to 50% of sown areas have been affected. While central and southern regions are also experiencing dry conditions, experts note that losses are not expected to create a national deficit, as sunflower cultivation in other areas such as Kirovohrad, Poltava, Mykolaiv, and Odessa helps offset regional shortfalls. Overall yields will be lower, which may support higher sunflower oil prices, but production is sufficient to meet domestic needs and maintain processing and export potential.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (W33 2024 to W33 2025) 

Russia

In W33, Russia’s sunflower oil prices rose 1.77% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 1.15 per kilogram (kg), representing a 25% YoY increase from USD 0.92/kg. The price uptick reflects seasonal demand and tight supply expectations in southwestern regions affected by drought, which may slightly reduce yields. However, an expanded sown area is expected to offset losses, supporting a projected harvest of 18 to 18.5 mmt compared to 16.9 mmt last year. This balance suggests that while short-term price support may persist due to regional supply concerns, the overall increase in production could moderate price growth later in the season.

Ukraine

Ukraine's sunflower oil prices rose 2.54% WoW to USD 1.21/kg in W33, representing a sharp 28.72% YoY increase from USD 0.94/kg in W33 2024 due to a shortage of sunflower oil supply on the domestic market. Export demand has driven prices to their highest level since early Sep-21, with unrefined sunflower oil quoted at USD 1,185/mt Carriage Paid To (CPT) port, up USD 35/mt since early Aug-25. The weekly surge reflects limited seasonal supply combined with strong exporter interest, a pattern typical at this stage of the marketing year (MY). If supply constraints persist, prices may remain elevated in the near term, potentially extending gains into Sep-25. However, any harvest recovery or easing in export competition could temper further upward movement.

Argentina

In W33, Argentina's sunflower oil prices held steady at USD 1.14/kg, marking no weekly changes but experiencing an increase of 22.58% YoY from USD 0.93/kg. Price stability reflects strong international demand, abundant local harvests, and strong milling activity, with the 2024/25 harvest reaching 4.7 mmt and exports totaling 900,000 mt through Jul-25, the highest since 2006. Domestic processing also surged, with 2.2 mmt crushed in H1-2025, supporting oil and flour production growth. The global undersupply from Ukraine and Russia bolstered Argentina's market share, while limited global stocks suggest that prices may remain firm into 2025/26. Favorable domestic conditions and expanded sowing areas, projected at 2.4 million hectares (ha), could push production toward 5 mmt, potentially sustaining strong export performance and price support despite a partial recovery in the Black Sea region.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Enhance Processing Efficiency and Export Logistics

Sunflower oil producers and exporters should expand crushing capacity and optimize transport networks to convert available harvests into a marketable supply efficiently. This will help mitigate bottlenecks from limited processing and sustain competitiveness amid firm global demand.

Invest in Climate Resilience and Yield Stabilization

Producers in Ukraine, Russia, and other Black Sea regions should adopt drought-resilient sunflower varieties and improve irrigation infrastructure. Strengthening climate adaptation will reduce yield volatility, support consistent oil quality, and stabilize both domestic and export prices.

Monitor Global Market Dynamics and Adjust Sourcing

Traders and buyers should track regional production trends, weather conditions, and import demand shifts, particularly in India. Early awareness of supply tightness or export growth opportunities will allow strategic sourcing, contract timing, and pricing decisions to manage exposure to potential price fluctuations.

Sources: Tridge, Superagronom, Sinor, Uk AgroConsult, Unian, Grain Trade, El Litoral