1. Weekly News

Argentina

Argentina's Wheat Planting Expands to 6.8 Million HA

Argentina's wheat planting reached 6.8 million hectares (ha), an increase of 400,000 ha from last season, reinforcing the crop's recovery. Favorable soil moisture, tax incentives, and attractive initial margins supported the expansion, with most growing regions showing strong production prospects despite localized excess rainfall. Input costs, particularly rising fertilizer prices, remain a concern amid weak international grain prices, creating pressure on profitability. Brazil remains the primary export destination, valuing Argentine wheat for its quality and lower risk of mycotoxin. While challenges persist, producers are equipped with technology and fungicides to manage potential disease risks, supporting an overall positive but cautious outlook for the 2025 harvest.

Brazil

Brazilian Wheat Prices Fall Amid Early Harvest and Import Competition

Between August 22 and 28, 2025, wheat prices in Brazil continued to decline despite the start of the national harvest. In Paraná, early harvesting covered 2% of the area, with production projected at 2.6 million metric tons (mmt) from 832,800 ha, a 26% year-on-year (YoY) decline. Rio Grande do Sul markets remain slow, with mills stocked and prices around USD 228.54–237.68 per metric ton (BRL 1,250–1,300/mt). Price pressures stem from competition with imports and delayed harvesting, while producers’ average profit margins fell to 3.5%. Productivity improvements in the Cerrado region indicate potential yields of 4–5 mt/ha, above the current state average of 3 mt/ha, suggesting longer-term production gains despite short-term price declines.

Canada

Canada's 2025 Wheat Output Forecast to Fall 1.1% YoY on Lower Yields

The August 28 update of Statistics Canada (StatCan), the national statistical agency of Canada, responsible for collecting, analyzing, and publishing data on the country's economy, society, and environment, projects Canada’s 2025 wheat production at 35.5 mmt, down 1.1% YoY. The decline is driven by a 1.2% YoY drop in yields despite stable acreage. Spring wheat output is forecast to fall 2% to 26 mmt, while durum wheat is expected to drop 4.7% to 6.1 mmt. The outlook reflects weaker yields across major wheat varieties, reinforcing concerns about tightening supplies ahead of the final harvest report in Dec-25.

Egypt

Egypt Sets 2025/26 Wheat Prices to Support Food Security

The Egyptian cabinet approved supply prices for strategic crops for the 2025/26 season, setting wheat at USD 46.34–48.40 per 150 kilograms (EGP 2,250–2,350 per ardeb, equivalent to 150 kg) based on cleanliness grades. The measures aim to support domestic production, strengthen food security, and reduce reliance on imports, alongside set prices for sugarcane (USD 51.49/mt) and sugar beets (USD 41.19/mt).

France

France's 2025/26 Wheat Exports Rise Despite Record Domestic Stocks and Low Prices

France's 2025/26 wheat exports outside the European Union (EU) are projected to rise sharply to 8 mmt, driven by a recovery to a 33.4 mmt harvest after last year's rain-hit crop. Despite higher shipments, France is expected to finish the season with its largest soft wheat stocks in 21 years at around 4 mmt. Ample global supplies and high domestic inventories have pushed farmer prices below production costs, limiting near-term upside, with any recovery dependent on producer retention or unexpected geopolitical or weather events.

Hungary

Hungary Maintains Ban on Ukrainian Wheat and Corn to Protect Domestic Farmers

Hungary has confirmed it will not resume wheat and corn imports from Ukraine, prioritizing the protection of domestic farmers’ interests. The government maintains its import ban to shield local markets from low-priced Ukrainian grain, citing significant losses to European producers following the 2022 EU decision to remove customs duties and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural products. The embargo, initially imposed by several Eastern European countries in 2023, remains in effect and has been expanded by Hungary to cover additional agricultural goods.

India

India's Wheat Output Rises Despite Climate and Productivity Challenges

India's wheat production has steadily increased over the past five years, with sown area rising from 31.12 million ha in 2020/21 to 32.76 million ha in 2024/25, and output growing from 109.58 mmt to 117.50 mmt. However, yield growth has been modest, increasing from 3,521 kg/ha to 3,587 kg/ha. The Union Minister of Agriculture, Farmers' Welfare, and Rural Development highlighted that while India has become a leading global wheat producer, future output faces risks from climate change, water scarcity, and rising temperatures. He emphasized the need for resilient, high-performing varieties and continued collaboration among farmers, scientists, and policymakers to sustain production and ensure food security.

Ukraine

Ukraine Nears Completion of 2025 Wheat Harvest at 21.9 MMT with Wide Regional Yield Gaps

As of August 28, 2025, Ukraine has harvested 98% of its wheat area, producing 21.9 mmt with an average yield of 4.37 mt/ha. Regional performance varied, with Cherkasy, Kyiv, and Poltava achieving the highest yields above 4.8 mt/ha, while Donetsk, Luhansk, and Odesa recorded significantly lower results below 2.7 mt/ha. The near-completion of the wheat harvest highlights both strong national output and pronounced regional disparities in productivity.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Wheat Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Wheat Pricing Important Exporters (W35 2024 to W35 2025) 

Russia

In W35, Russia's wheat prices remained stable at USD 0.24/kg, with no weekly or monthly change. Strong harvest prospects for 2025/26, driven by record yields in Siberia and the Urals, are expected to offset drought losses in southern regions, with forecasts from the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), a Russian agricultural consulting company, and SovEcon, Black Sea grain consultancy, projecting production between 85–86 mmt. Despite favorable supply, exports remain constrained due to logistical delays from southern regions and reduced acreage, limiting near-term shipments to key buyers such as Egypt and Türkiye. Russian wheat FOB Black Sea prices were assessed at USD 234.5/mt, slightly down from previous levels, reflecting weak immediate demand and competition from other exporters. Looking forward, improved yields, combined with seasonal logistics and regional demand recovery—particularly from Egypt and Türkiye—could help stabilize prices. However, the abundant domestic supply and delayed export flow are likely to keep short-term market pressures downward.

Ukraine

Ukraine's wheat prices remained stable at USD 0.24/kg, showing no weekly or monthly changes in W35. The country's 2025 wheat harvest is forecast at 21.8 mmt, slightly below last year's 22.7 mmt, with 98% of the sown area already harvested. Low demand and competition, particularly from Russia in North African markets, have pressured milling wheat prices to around USD 228–230/mt carriage paid to (CPT), with further declines to USD 222–225/mt (CPT) possible in the near term. Stable current prices, combined with a slightly smaller harvest, suggest limited immediate upside, though regional demand shifts or logistical changes could influence future price movements. Ukraine's position as a major global grain supplier means that seasonal price trends could impact both export strategies and global wheat market dynamics.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Strengthen Input Cost Management and Profitability Measures

Argentine wheat producers should adopt precision farming techniques, optimize fertilizer use, and explore alternative cost-effective inputs to mitigate the impact of rising production costs amid weak international prices. Governments and industry associations can support this through targeted subsidies, tax incentives, or access to low-interest credit for inputs and technology adoption.

Diversify and Secure Export Markets

Wheat-exporting countries such as Argentina, France, and Ukraine should actively pursue market diversification beyond traditional buyers to reduce dependency risks. Engaging emerging markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, combined with long-term supply contracts and quality certification programs, can help absorb surplus production and stabilize export revenues.

Enhance Risk Management and Resilience Against Yield Variability

Producers in India, Ukraine, and Canada should prioritize resilient, high-performing wheat varieties, complemented by advanced disease management and irrigation strategies to counter climate change, water scarcity, and regional yield disparities. Governments can facilitate collaboration between farmers, scientists, and policymakers, while import-dependent countries like Egypt should maintain strategic reserves and supply price mechanisms to safeguard domestic food security.

Sources: Tridge, Agromeat, Grain Trade, Super Agronom, Agrolink, Ukr Agroconsult, Oil World