1. Weekly News

European Union

EU Wheat Exports Plunge 44% YoY in Early 2025/26 as Market Shifts to Domestic Demand

European Union (EU) soft wheat exports in the first two months of the 2025/26 season, starting July 1, dropped by 44% year-on-year (YoY) to 2.57 million metric tons (mmt). This drop could be due to missing French data. Despite that, France is expected to recover exports after last season’s poor harvest. Romania remains the EU’s top exporter with 1.46 mmt, while Germany with 0.30 mmt, Lithuania with 0.23 mmt, Bulgaria with 0.18 mmt, and Poland with 0.16 mmt followed. At the same time, EU imports of wheat and other grains have also fallen sharply, signaling a rebalancing of the market toward domestic consumption. It is worth noting that durum wheat is the exception, as imports surged 32% YoY to 253.7 thousand metric tons (mt). This shift reduces demand for Ukrainian wheat in the EU but opens opportunities for it in traditional markets such as North Africa and the Middle East, though global oversupply will intensify competition.

Black Sea

Black Sea Wheat Prices Decline Amid Rising Supply and Quality Challenges

The Black Sea wheat market has experienced declining prices amid weak demand and improved yields across major producing regions. As of September 1, the Platts Milling Wheat Marker (MWM) was assessed at USD 232/mt, down from USD 242/mt in mid-Aug-25, reflecting a steady decline since the start of the harvest in Jul-25. Russian wheat exports have been slow, reaching 5.2 mmt since Jul-25, well below last season’s 8.5 mmt. However, they are projected to rise to 43 mmt in 2025/26, supported by an expected production increase to 83.2 mmt. Ukrainian wheat exports totaled 2.2 mmt since Jul-25, down from 3.4 mmt last year, with quality inconsistencies noted in protein, gluten, and falling numbers requiring blending for local markets. Similar quality issues have been reported from Romania and Bulgaria, affecting pricing and discounts for lower-quality lots. Meanwhile, EU exports, particularly from France, have strengthened in the Middle East, with 1.48 mmt shipped from Rouen since Jul-25, pressuring Black Sea prices.

Australia

Strong Winter Rainfall Boosts Australia’s 2025/26 Wheat Production

According to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), Australian wheat production is expected to reach 33.8 mmt in 2025/26, up 10% from the Jun-25 estimate and marking the fourth largest output in history. The rise is driven by better-than-expected winter rainfall in key growing regions, particularly Western Australia, Victoria, and South Australia, which has boosted yield potential. Western Australia alone is expected to produce 12.7 mmt, surpassing earlier forecasts. As a major global wheat exporter, Australia primarily supplies high-protein wheat to Asia and the Middle East. Despite strong demand, wheat futures remain under downward pressure, while the optimistic outlook reflects favorable weather conditions supporting crop development.

France

High Stocks and Retention Drive Uncertainty in France’s Wheat Market

France’s 2025 wheat harvest shows mixed quality results, with only 69% of soft wheat reaching a protein content of at least 11%, below the five-year average of 83%. However, other quality indicators, such as natural weight and falling number are above average. The country harvested an estimated 33.4 mmt, a 30% increase from the rain-hit 2024 crop, but still faces its largest soft wheat stockpiles in 21 years, projected at around 4 mmt. Exports outside the EU are expected to rise sharply to around 7.5 mmt to 8 mmt in 2025/26, with Morocco as the largest destination. This is despite ample global supplies, and a decline in purchases from traditional markets like Algeria and China may limit price recovery. Farmgate prices have fallen roughly USD 35.11 (EUR 30) below production costs. As a result, analysts suggest that market movements this season will hinge on a balance between high stocks, strong fundamentals, and farmers’ willingness to retain grain.

Israel

Israel Partners with Moldova to Boost Wheat Security

Israel has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Moldova to jointly grow wheat for both daily consumption and emergency reserves. This marks another step in its strategy to strengthen food security. Under the agreement, Israel will supply expertise and seeds, while Moldova contributes land, water, and labor. This partnership builds on Israel’s broader initiative of diversifying wheat supply sources, with similar agreements already established with Romania, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Morocco.

Italy

Italian Durum Wheat Struggles Despite Reduced Harvest

In 2025, Italy’s durum wheat sector faced a sharp price collapse despite a below-average harvest of around 3.7 mmt. In the key producing province of Foggia, output fell by 20% YoY due to drought, yet farmers were offered USD 23.39/mt (EUR 20/mt) less than last year. Prices in Jul-25 dropped 6% YoY and 15% compared to Feb-25, reflecting both poor market conditions and a surge in imports. Uncontrolled durum wheat shipments, which rose 28% in the first four months of 2025, particularly from Canada, which doubled compared to the previous year. Italian producers are concerned about imported wheat treated with substances banned in the EU, such as glyphosate. This influx, arriving as domestic harvests begin, has amplified market volatility, leaving Italian producers struggling with low returns despite tight local supply.

Pakistan

Pakistan Faces Wheat Shortages as MSP Removal and Floods Disrupt Supply

Despite a 6.5% YoY decline in planting area following the removal of the minimum support price, Pakistan’s 2025 total wheat output is estimated at 29 mmt. This marks 5% above the five-year average, driven by high yields in irrigated regions. However, devastating floods destroyed about 30% of national wheat stocks, displacing 1.8 million people and pushing urban wheat flour prices up 40% to USD 32 per 100 kilograms (PKR 9,000/100 kg), with warnings that they could rise to USD 53/100kg (PKR 15,000/100kg) without imports. With annual consumption at 33.6 mmt, analysts caution that Pakistan may need to import up to 6 mmt of wheat to stabilize supply and prevent food insecurity, despite current bans on wheat and flour imports.

Russia

Improved Harvest Boosts Russia’s 2025/26 Wheat Outlook Despite Low Early Season Shipments

According to a consultancy firm SovEcon, Russia’s wheat export is forecast to reach 43.7 mmt in 2025/26. This optimistic projection reflects an improved gross harvest forecast of 85.4 mmt, despite low shipment volumes from Jul-25 to Aug-25 totaling only 6.1 mmt, well below last year’s 9.9 mmt. Early-season exports to major buyers such as Egypt and Algeria have slowed, while competition from upcoming Argentine and Australian harvests, projected at over 20 mmt and 33.8 mmt respectively, may further influence demand. Russia is also awaiting potential access for winter wheat to the Chinese market. However, export duties on wheat are unpredictable, as they were raised to USD 1.59/mt (RUB 134.4/mt) effective September 3. This is a rise by 4.2 times from the previous week when it stood at USD 0.38/mt (RUB 32.1/mt).

Syria

Syria Faces 80% Wheat Deficit as Imports from Ukraine Arrive to Stabilize Bread Supply

Syria is facing a severe wheat crisis in 2024/25, with production falling to just 750 thousand mt, only 25% of the annual average and far below the 2 mmt harvested last year. This output reduction is due to drought, climate change, and rising input costs. This shortfall, which leaves the country with an 80% deficit against its 4 mmt annual requirement for a population of 22.5 million, has forced reliance on imports to maintain bread supplies. Recently, two ships carrying 37.50 thousand mt of Ukrainian wheat arrived at the ports of Latakia and Tartus under contracts with the Syrian Grain Authority, aimed at replenishing strategic reserves and stabilizing flour distribution to bakeries. Additional shipments are expected, as the government struggles to fill the gap left by declining domestic output, abandoned wheat fields, and failed tenders, while the easing of sanctions has somewhat facilitated direct banking transfers to support wheat imports.

Ukraine

Regional Contrasts Shape Ukraine’s 2025 Wheat Crop as Exports Decline

Ukraine’s 2025 wheat harvest reflects regional contrasts, with southeastern areas producing lower yields but higher-quality grain dominated by second-grade and third-grade wheat. In contrast, excess rains in western and central regions reduced gluten and protein levels, leading to higher volumes of feed wheat. Frost damage also affected yields, particularly in wheat and rapeseed. However, average early grain yields in Sumy reached 5.5 mt per hectare (ha) despite farming challenges near conflict zones. On the trade front, Ukraine exported 3 mmt of wheat by September 5 in the 2025/26 season, down 27% from last year, contributing to a total grain export volume of 4.5 mmt, a 43% YoY decline.

United States

US Wheat Harvest Ahead of Pace, Exports Set for Five-Year High

By the end of Aug-25, United States (US) farmers had harvested 72% of spring wheat acreage, ahead of both last year and the five-year average, signaling a strong start to the wheat season. As a result, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a combined winter and spring wheat harvest of 52.45 mmt, slightly below last year but above the five-year average. Despite a widening agricultural trade deficit, wheat remains a key export, with 2025/26 shipments expected at a five-year high, ranging from 850 million bushels and 875 million bushels. Production is concentrated in the Great Plains, Pacific Northwest, and Southeast, with winter wheat accounting for 70% of output. Although planted acreage has declined over the past four decades, US wheat continues to compete globally, supplying nearly half of production to over 70 countries. Tight global stocks and strong international demand create opportunities, though price pressure and competition persist, making wheat a cornerstone of US agriculture with potential for sustained growth.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Wheat Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Wheat Pricing Important Exporters (W36 2024 to W36 2025) 

Russia

In W36, Russia’s wheat prices fell 4.17% week-on-week (WoW) and month-on-month (MoM) to USD 0.23/kg, influenced by expectations of a higher 2025/26 output of 85.4 mmt and exports projected at 43 mmt. Active deliveries of the new crop and sluggish export purchases have prompted exporters to cut prices amid weak import demand and the arrival of the new harvest. Ongoing difficulties with ship passage, which delayed most Aug-25 deliveries until Sep-25, have further reduced exporters’ willingness to offer new sales. The recent spike in export duties to USD 1.59/mt (RUB 134.4/mt) on September 3, 4.2 times higher than the previous week, has also likely dampened demand. Competition from upcoming Argentine and Australian harvests, estimated at over 20 mmt and 33.8 mmt respectively, adds further pressure. Despite these declines, prices remain 4.55% higher YoY.

United States

In W36, US wheat prices remained stable WoW and MoM at USD 0.24/kg, though still 7.69% lower YoY. Basis levels firmed as futures trended lower, with Sep-25 spot basis weakening amid available capacity and the incentive to move wheat before the Oct-25 corn and soybean harvests. Concerns over dark hard and vitreous (DHV) content in hard red spring (HRS) are supporting premiums for grain with 65% or greater DHV, which are expected to remain elevated. For the week ending August 28, net sales of 313 thousand mt were recorded for 2025/26 delivery, bringing total outstanding sales and accumulated exports to 12.4 mmt, 21% ahead of last year’s pace. However, the export pace has slowed due to competition from Russia, the Black Sea, and the EU.

Ukraine

Ukraine’s wheat prices remained stable WoW and MoM at USD 0.24/kg, but up 4.35% YoY. This stability could be attributed to active demand from processing and export-oriented companies. However, 2025/26 wheat exports totaled 3 mmt by September 5, down 27% YoY, partly due to quality inconsistencies in protein, gluten, and falling numbers requiring local blending. Stable prices and a slightly smaller harvest suggest limited near-term upside. However, regional demand shifts or logistical changes could influence future movements, with Ukraine’s role as a major global supplier impacting broader market dynamics.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Strengthen EU Wheat Export Competitiveness

With EU soft wheat exports falling 44% YoY early in 2025/26 and the market shifting toward domestic demand, policymakers and exporters should focus on improving competitiveness through quality differentiation and targeted trade agreements. Exporters can prioritize high-quality wheat for traditional importers in North Africa and the Middle East while diversifying supply chains to reduce reliance on domestic oversupply. Collaboration between EU governments and industry associations could help streamline logistics and improve market intelligence, allowing producers to better anticipate shifts in regional demand.

Stabilize Domestic Markets for Wheat Producers

Countries like Italy, France, and Pakistan face price collapses or supply disruptions despite below-average harvests. Governments and industry associations should implement measures such as regulated import timing, minimum price supports, or strategic reserves to stabilize farmgate prices. Additionally, promoting domestic wheat quality standards and limiting unfair competition from low-quality imports can protect farmers’ income and maintain production incentives.

Monitor Russia’s Wheat Export Policies to Maintain Competitiveness

Russia’s improved harvest boosts potential exports, but unpredictable duties and competition from Australia and Argentina could affect market access. Exporters and importers should closely monitor export regulations and engage in forward contracts to manage price volatility. Diversification of export destinations and proactive market analysis will help mitigate risks from fluctuating duties and competitive pressures.

Leverage Australia and US Wheat Surpluses for Global Market Growth

Australia’s record 2025/26 wheat output and the US’s strong export position present significant opportunities to expand high-protein wheat sales globally. Exporters from both countries should leverage favorable production and tight global stocks to secure long-term contracts, particularly in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, while maintaining existing relationships with key buyers such as Mexico, Japan, and the Philippines. Strategic investments in logistics, port efficiency, trade promotion, and quality assurance will help manage price pressures, maximize export revenue, and sustain competitive market positions amid evolving global demand.

Sources: Tridge, Foodmate, Oilworld, UkrAgroConsult, SuperAgronom