W51 Almond Update: Climate Challenges in Turkey, and Robust Global Shipments in November 2023

Unusual Weather Patterns Cause Almond Trees to Bloom Early in Muğla, Turkey

Unusual weather patterns in the Datça district of Muğla, Turkey, have led to almond trees blooming in December instead of the expected January timeframe. The region is experiencing higher temperatures, reaching 22 to 25 degrees Celsius (°C). Almond producers, including Nurcan Aytekin from Kızlan District, express concerns about potential yield loss if cold and rainy weather follows the early bloom. The situation is attributed to the broader impact of climate change, with changing phenology affecting crop production. There is an urgent need for adaptation strategies to mitigate the unpredictable effects of weather on almonds and other crop yields in the region.

The Almond Board of California Released November 2023 Position Report

The Almond Board of California's Nov-23 position report indicates a robust performance in almond shipments, reaching the second-highest November on record at 107.95 thousand mt, reflecting a 16.6% increase from the previous year. This growth is attributed to strong demand in export markets, accounting for 80.29 thousand mt and showing a notable 25% year-on-year (YoY) increase. Despite a slight decline in domestic shipments at 27.22 thousand mt, down 2% YoY, the accumulated shipments show a positive outlook with a 9.6% YoY increase.

Shipments to India reached 17.24 thousand mt, marking a 14% YoY increase. India remains an attractive market, especially for in-shell almonds, with flexibility on quality parameters. In addition, total shipments to China, Hong Kong, and Vietnam were 10.43 thousand mt , a substantial 122% YoY rise. Vietnam plays a significant role in this growth, with a remarkable 114% increase year-to-date, while shipments to China dropped by 3% YoY for the season due to ongoing macroeconomic challenges.

November shipments to Europe increased by 17% YoY and 13% month-on-month (MoM). Strong buyer activity, particularly for nonpareil and pollinizer kernels, sets the stage for another robust month of shipments in Dec-23. Lastly, domestic shipments in Nov-23 totaled 27.22 thousand mt, slightly down 2% compared to the previous year. Domestic demand post-holiday season is crucial in determining customer inventory levels, commitments, and shipments for the second half of the crop year.