W14 Rice Update: China Leads Global Rice Consumption, Indonesia's Rice Prices Declined Amid Harvest Season

Published 2024년 4월 12일

In W14 in the rice landscape, 36.2% of the irrigated rice were harvested in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul, a significant delay compared to the previous year's progress, with the Western Frontier leading at 51.37% and the Central region lagging at 17.99%. Meanwhile, Indonesia experienced a decline in rice prices in Mar-24 due to the harvest season, easing inflation pressures as domestic production increased. The Philippines assured sufficient rice stocks despite the temporary closure of some NFA warehouses. Lastly, the USDA-FAS predicts a decrease in rice imports for the Philippines in the 2024/25 season, driven by the weakening of the El Niño phenomenon and increased production efforts globally.

Slow Start to Irrigated Rice Harvest in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

The irrigated rice harvest in Rio Grande do Sul, accounting for 72% of Brazil's annual production, is ongoing. However, progress is slow, with only 36.2% of the 900,203 hectares (ha) harvested as of W14, 2024. This marks a notable decrease compared to the 67% harvested by the same time in 2023, indicating a delay of approximately 50% compared to last year. The Western Frontier has made the most progress among the irrigated rice-producing regions, with 51.37% of the harvest completed, while the Central region lags at 17.99%.

China Leads Global Rice Consumption with 154 MMT in 2022/2023 Season

Rice holds significant cultural and nutritional importance globally, serving as a staple food in many societies. China is the world's largest consumer of rice, with a consumption of approximately 154 million metric tons (mmt) during the 2022/2023 season. Rice cultivation originated between China and India, which currently leads both global production and consumption of the grain. Additionally, China stands out as the largest rice importer, while India leads in rice exports.

Philippines Ensures Ample Rice Stock Despite Temporary Closure of NFA Warehouses

Despite the temporary closure of some National Food Authority (NFA) warehouses in the Philippines, the Department of Agriculture (DA) assured the public of an ample buffer stock to meet the country's rice needs. As of April 3, approximately 97 NFA warehouses remained closed, but the NFA has procured a certain amount of rice, ensuring stocks are available. Additionally, with the ongoing harvest season expected to continue until May-24 and regular rice imports, Philippines rice requirements are deemed sufficient.

USDA-FAS Forecasted Decrease in Rice Imports for Philippines in 2024/25 Season

According to the United States Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS), the weakening of the El Niño phenomenon in the Philippines by May-24, combined with continued government subsidies and increased use of chemical fertilizers and hybrid seeds, would lead to a decrease in rice imports for the 2024/25 season (July-24 to June-25). The forecasted imports are expected to drop from 4.1 mmt to 4 mmt. Additionally, production and total demand are projected to increase from 12 mmt and 16 mmt to 12.125 mmt and 16.48 mmt respectively.

Indonesia's Rice Prices Decline in Mar-24 Amid Harvest Season

Indonesia saw a decline in rice prices in Mar-24 due to the onset of the harvest season. According to the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), rice experienced a monthly inflation rate of 2.06%, contributing to 0.09% of the overall inflation rate of 0.52% for Mar-24. The delay in planting followed by the harvest season influenced rice price formation. From Apr-23 to Mar-24, rice prices surged four times due to factors such as the prolonged dry season from El Niño and discussions on rice exports globally. However, prices began to ease gradually, with inflation pressures subsiding as the main harvest commenced in Mar-24, indicating an increase in domestic rice production. BPS observed a decrease in rice prices at the milling level, with hopes for a corresponding decrease at the retail level. While milling prices fell by 0.87% month-on-month (MoM), they rose by 25.2% year-on-year (YoY). Wholesale rice prices experienced a slight increase of 0.90% mmt and 20.64% YoY, while retail prices in Mar-24 increased by 0.26% MoM and 20.07% YoY.