W28: Salmon Update

In W28 in the salmon landscape, Chilean Atlantic salmon producers predict a 5% growth in 2023, with the highest expansion expected in Q4-2023. The total harvest is estimated at 805.70 thousand metric tons (mt), with Q4-2023 showing the highest percentage growth. Chile's National Customs Service reported positive figures in salmon and trout exports in the first half of 2023, with 373.7 thousand mt exported, valued at USD 3.30 million. The United States (US) received 127.39 thousand mt, valued at USD 1.4 billion, while Brazil experienced a 4% increase in volume and 1% in value. Russia showed steady growth, with exports reaching 19.58 thousand tons valued at USD 143 million. Mexico experienced positive growth, with 10.46 thousand mt exported for USD 117 million, indicating a 25% increase in value and a 19% increase in volume. Japan faced challenges, with 58.71 thousand mt shipped for USD 457 million, resulting in a 15% decline in value and 21% in volumes. China maintained its position as the fifth largest destination for Chilean salmon exports, with 18.97 thousand mt exported and a value of USD 139 million. It was also reported that in W23, the Alaska chum salmon season began, with exceptional numbers surpassing the five-year average. However, the smaller size of salmon, with 50% weighing 4 to 6 lbs, has led to lower prices. The longevity of these abundant catches remains uncertain, making it difficult to predict the supply situation's longevity.

Prince William Sound's commercial salmon harvest reached 4.5 million fish, up 1.7 million week-on-week (WoW), while the statewide catch reached 36 million, an increase of 21.7 million fish. The Alaska Department of Fish and Game reported a faster harvest of Chinook salmon in Southeast Alaska, with at least 38 thousand caught during the summer troll fishery. Average Chinook weights were 10.5 lbs, down half a pound from a year ago. Red salmon harvests in Bristol Bay were slightly down from 2022, but the estimated weight was up due to larger fish. NASDAQ Salmon Index reports that Norwegian salmon prices rebounded in W27, up 3.36% from the previous week. The farmed Norwegian Atlantic salmon's average price increased by USD 0.30/kg (NOK 2.97/kg) to USD 9.13/kg (NOK 91.20/kg), up 5.5% WoW. However, price averages declined by 16.31% in the past four weeks and 23.52% in the past 12 weeks, reaching USD USD 2.77/kg (NOK 28.04/kg). Meanwhile, in W27, the price of Norwegian fresh salmon HON increased by 6.48% WoW in W27, reaching USD 9.19/kg. This led to an 11% YoY increase in export volume. Future contracts for salmon in Q3/Q4 2023 were traded at USD 7.86/kg (buyer bid) and USD 8.29/kg (seller bid).

In Russia, the Sports Food Retail Market in Vladivostok, the largest market in the Far Eastern capital, is experiencing declining salmon retail prices. This year's salmon is more affordable than other trading places, making it popular among residents and visitors. In mid Jun-23, the selling price of fresh pink salmon from Terney stood at USD 5.98/kg, local sim stood at USD 8.70/kg and Kamchatka sockeye salmon at USD 9.79/kg. However, by July 10, the prices of these fish dropped significantly. The current prices of Terney pink salmon have decreased to USD 3.15/kg, while larger salmon is sold at USD 7.07/kg. Smaller sims are available at USD 3.81/kg, and Kamchatka sockeye salmon stood at USD 8.16/kg. Sakhalin pink salmon and sima are also available, with prices at USD 3.05/kg and USD 4.68/kg, respectively.