1. Weekly News

Cambodia

Cambodia's 2024 Rice Exports Totaled 652 Thousand MT

Cambodia exported 652 thousand metric tons (mt) of rice in 2024, earning approximately USD 490 million, a slight decrease of 0.7% year-on-year (YoY). Cambodian rice was shipped to 68 countries and regions, with the primary markets being Europe, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and China. Exports to Europe totaled 327 thousand mt, while ASEAN countries received 127 thousand mt, and China (including Hong Kong and Macau) accounted for 117 thousand mt.

India

India's Rice Stocks Surged to Record Levels, Easing Export Prospects

India's rice stocks reached a record high at the beginning of Jan-25, totaling 60.9 mmt, eight times the government's target of 7.6 mmt. Paddy procurement continues in some states, which complicates storage logistics, as noted by an exporter. The surplus rice reserves position India to increase exports in the coming months.

Myanmar

Myanmar's Rice Exports Reached 2.03 MMT in 2024/25

According to the Myanmar Rice and Paddy Association, Myanmar exported 337,490 mt of rice and broken rice in Dec-24, generating USD 145 million. These exports were carried out by over 50 companies through sea and border trade routes, targeting eight countries. For the first nine months of the 2024/25 season, Myanmar's rice exports reached 2.03 mmt, earning USD 948 million in total revenue.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka Faces Red Rice Shortage Amid Failed Import Attempts from India

According to the Sri Lankan Ministry of Trade, Commerce, and Food Security, efforts to import red rice from India have failed due to its unavailability. Discussions with the Indian High Commission and suppliers to address the local shortage were unsuccessful, as red rice was unavailable in Indian mills. The Minister attributed the shortage to factors such as the free distribution of red rice by the previous government before the Presidential election, which depleted stocks. He also noted that red rice is in demand across various industries, including beer production, poultry farming, ornamental fish feed, and rice flour manufacturing, further exacerbating the supply challenges.

Vietnam

Vietnam's 2025 Rice Exports Forecasted at 7.5 MMT Amid Competitive Challenges

According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), Vietnam's 2025 rice export forecast stood at 7.5 mmt, a decline from the record 9.04 mmt shipped in 2024. As the world's third-largest rice exporter, Vietnam's key markets include the Philippines and Indonesia. Challenges for 2025 exports include increased competition from Indian rice supplies and Indonesia's efforts to reduce imports. However, prospects for higher exports to China remain promising. In 2024, Vietnam's rice exports grew 11.2% YoY to 9.04 mmt, with export revenue rising by 21.2% YoY to USD 5.67 billion, per government data.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W3 2024 to W3 2025)

India

In W3, India's wholesale rice prices fell by 1.56% week-on-week (WoW), reaching USD 0.63 per kilogram (kg), down from USD 0.64/kg in W2. This marks the fourth consecutive week of declines, bringing rice prices to a 17-month low. The price drop is due to weak demand, aggravated by the depreciation of the Indian rupee (INR) to a record low. Moreover, low demand from Asian and African buyers during the New Year holidays has reduced prices. The main factor behind the falling prices is India’s record-breaking 2024 rice production, which reached 120 mmt during the summer, accounting for approximately 85% of total rice output. This bumper harvest has significantly boosted rice inventories, with state granaries holding 44.1 mmt of rice reserves at the beginning of Dec-24, exceeding the government’s target by more than five times. The surplus supply has exerted substantial downward pressure on domestic rice prices.

Vietnam

In W3, Vietnamese rice prices remained unchanged WoW at USD 0.65/kg but declined by 4.41% month-on-month (MoM). The decline is primarily due to overflowing rice stocks held by traders in Vietnam, which have exerted downward pressure on prices. Furthermore, rice purchases by international buyers have decreased compared to the previous year, reflecting ongoing market fluctuations. To mitigate these pricing challenges, the Vietnamese Agriculture Ministry and the Rice Federation have continuously encouraged farmers to cultivate specific strategic rice varieties. This initiative aims to help farmers secure assistance and favorable purchase agreements with rice mills to stabilize prices and improve market stability.

United States

In W3, United States (US) rice prices declined by 2.5% YoY to USD 0.78/kg. This decrease is primarily due to increased domestic production and higher carryover stocks from the previous marketing year. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the total rice planted area in 2024 increased to 2.943 million acres from 2.894 million in 2023. This acreage expansion and favorable weather conditions led to higher yields and increased rice production. Moreover, global market dynamics have influenced US rice prices. The anticipated end of India's export ban and large harvests in other major rice-producing countries are expected to exert downward pressure on global rice prices.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Encourage the Adoption of Drought-Resilient Varieties

Indian farmers should be encouraged to cultivate drought-resistant rice varieties such as Pusa Basmati 1121, PR 126, and CR Dhan 310. These varieties are known for their ability to withstand water stress and require less water than traditional rice types. For example, Pusa Basmati 1121 has proven resilience during dry conditions and maintains good grain quality even under water-limited environments. PR 126 is a short-duration variety that matures quickly, reducing exposure to prolonged dry spells. Meanwhile, CR Dhan 310 is a hybrid variety that shows excellent drought tolerance and high productivity under low water availability. Farmers could benefit from training sessions focusing on selecting the right seeds suited for drought-prone areas, implementing soil moisture conservation techniques like mulching or zero-tillage, and adopting drip irrigation systems to optimize water usage.

Promote Strategic Rice Cultivation

Vietnam farmers should cultivate rice varieties suited to specific global buyer preferences. Farmers can ensure they capture higher export value by planting long-grain or aromatic varieties in demand in international markets like the Philippines or Indonesia. This approach can be supported through partnerships with rice mills that offer favorable purchasing terms for specific varieties. Moreover, organizing farmer cooperatives to engage in joint sales can help stabilize prices, reduce storage risks, and increase access to larger global buyers. Training programs could also help farmers understand market trends and adjust their planting strategies accordingly.

Diversify Rice Exports

Cambodian rice exporters should actively explore and establish partnerships with emerging markets in Africa, the Middle East, and other Southeast Asian countries not currently dominated by Chinese or European imports. Exporters can reduce reliance on saturated markets by targeting regions with growing demand for rice, such as West Africa, East Africa, and South Asia. This approach allows for greater market diversification, reducing price volatility risk due to dependence on a few major buyers. Expanding distribution networks, improving packaging to meet regional preferences, and offering competitive pricing strategies can help penetrate these new markets more effectively.

Sources: Tridge, Food Mate, NoticiasAgricolas, UkrAgroConsult,