1. Weekly News

Argentina

Argentina’s 2025/26 Wheat Crop Set for Record Prospects Amid Favorable Conditions

Argentina has successfully completed the 2025/26 wheat sowing, covering 6.7 million hectares (ha), an increase of 400 thousand ha from the previous season. This reflects farmers’ confidence in favorable growing conditions. Supported by optimal weather and improved soil moisture, the crop outlook is promising, with 99% of planted fields rated in good to excellent condition. Timely rainfall across key producing provinces such as Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, and Cordoba has further boosted expectations, with projections estimating a harvest of 20.5 million metric tons (mmt) to 21.2 mmt. This strong wheat outlook underscores Argentina’s resilience and reinforces its standing as a major player in the global grain market.

France

French Wheat Harvest Shows Improved Yields but Faces Protein Content Challenges

The 2025 French soft wheat harvest shows improved overall quality compared to 2024, though protein content remains a concern. According to FranceAgriMer’s first assessment, protein levels in French wheat range between 10.5% and 11.5%, reflecting the impact of dry weather and high yields. Some of these levels fall below the 11% minimum required by domestic mills and the Euronext grain futures market, as well as the 11.5% preferred by certain foreign buyers. Other quality indicators are more favorable, as the hectoliter weight is generally high, ranging from 77 kilograms (kg) to 80 kg, although late-harvested crops after Jun-25 rains may be lighter. The Hagberg falling number is also reported as generally good. Farmers are nearing the end of harvesting, and volumes are expected to rise sharply compared to last year’s poor crop, with early feedback pointing to improved quality despite the protein challenges.

Germany

Germany’s Wheat Harvest to Rebound 21% Despite Quality Concerns

According to the German Association of Agricultural Cooperatives (DRV), Germany's wheat harvest is forecast at 22.42 mmt in 2025, a 21.1% year-on-year (YoY) increase. The upward revision is attributed to higher yields and an expansion of planted acreage, despite heavy rains during Jul-25 and early Aug-25 when the crop was ready for harvest. While rainfall caused less damage than expected, it did affect quality, with lower protein content and reduced Hagberg falling numbers. However, protein levels remain above 2024 levels and differ significantly across regions. Overall, Germany’s wheat outlook points to a strong rebound in volumes, albeit with some quality concerns that could influence milling demand and pricing.

Kazakhstan

Rising Transport Costs Threaten Competitiveness of Kazakh Wheat Exports

Kazakhstan’s wheat sector faces mounting challenges as rising railway tariffs threaten competitiveness and production costs. The National Chamber of Entrepreneurs (Atameken) has urged the government to block Kazakhstan Temir Zholy’s plan to abolish differentiated cargo tariffs from 2026. They argue that if the plan goes through, it could raise grain transportation costs more than fourfold by 2030. Such increases are expected to drive up fertilizer prices and push food costs by 15% to 20% higher, weakening the wheat sector’s export position. Despite these risks, Kazakhstan’s wheat availability remains stable, with 4.8 mmt in stock as of August 1, including 4.4 mmt of food-grade wheat and 297 thousand metric tons (mt) of hard wheat. Wheat reserves are concentrated in the North Kazakhstan, Akmola, and Kostanay regions. Meanwhile, wheat exports totaled 3.2 mmt in the Jan-25 to May-25 period, far outweighing imports of 212 thousand mt.

Russia

Russia’s Wheat Market Faces Profitability Challenges Amid Strong Yields

In 2025, Russia reduced its wheat sowing area by 5.6% to 26.9 million ha, continuing a multi-year trend of shrinking grain acreage. Despite that, wheat harvest has been raised to between 84.5 mmt and 85.2 mmt, owing to strong yields in the central and Volga regions. This remains below the 92.8 mmt of 2023 but slightly higher than 2024’s 82.6 mmt. Despite solid production prospects, farmers face unprofitable market conditions as domestic wheat prices remain insufficient to cover rising costs, though 23% higher YoY. This situation has forced many farmers to delay sales in hopes of better returns. Export demand is relatively strong, with Aug-25 shipments estimated at 3.5 mmt to 3.8 mmt, nearly double Jul-25’s volumes, while free-on-board (FOB) prices for 12.5% protein wheat hover around USD 237/mt and USD 239/mt. However, quality concerns due to weather variability and uneven protein content, coupled with tariff policy adjustments, continue to shape both domestic pricing dynamics and Russia’s competitiveness in global wheat markets.

Serbia

Serbian Wheat Farmers Struggle With Record Harvest Amid Low Prices

Despite achieving a record harvest of 5.5 mt/ha to 5.6 mt/ha and producing high-quality grain in 2025, Serbian wheat farmers face low market prices that remain so low that they barely cover production costs. The country’s wheat output reached 3.5 mmt, with 1.5 mmt meeting domestic needs and about 2.5 mmt destined for export. However, cheap Russian and Ukrainian grain continues to suppress global prices, leaving Serbian farmers frustrated that their efforts yield little financial return. While the government intervened in Jul-25 by purchasing wheat at USD 0.23/kg (RSD 23/kg), slightly above market levels of USD 0.21/kg (RSD 21/kg), analysts argue that at least USD 0.23/kg to USD 0.24/kg (RSD 23/kg to RSD 24/kg) are required for farmers to break even. The price gap has further widened as maize sells at up to 20% more than wheat, prompting some farmers to divert wheat to livestock feed. Although a potential rebound in wheat prices is anticipated by winter, persistent global market instability casts uncertainty on profitability, leading some growers to question whether leasing their land might have been a wiser choice than cultivation.

Ukraine

Ukraine’s 2025 Wheat Harvest Faces Lower Yields but Stable Output

Ukraine’s 2025 wheat harvest is showing mixed outcomes, with average yields estimated at 37.2 centners/ha, down 19% from 2024 and 13% below the five-year average. Yields are expected to improve once harvesting progresses in the western and northern regions, where weather conditions have been more favorable. Despite challenges from drought, logistical difficulties, and security risks, the total wheat harvest is forecast at between 20.5 mmt and 21.0 mmt, only slightly below last year’s level. Quality has been affected by reduced seed weight, but research suggests that lower thousand-kernel weights have limited impact on yields if seeding rates are properly adjusted.

On the market side, a large share of the crop has been downgraded to feed wheat, pushing its price lower. Meanwhile, milling wheat remains scarce and continues to command a strong premium, with the price gap reaching a record high. Experts advise farmers to hold feed wheat until oversupply is absorbed, while selling higher-quality grain now to benefit from strong demand. By mid-Aug-25, harvesting was 90% complete, and wheat exports stood at 1.23 mmt, well below the 2.61 mmt shipped during the same period last year.

United Kingdom

UK Winter Wheat Harvest Shows Lower Yields but Higher Protein Quality

The United Kingdom (UK) winter wheat harvest registered lower yields but improved quality as of late Jul-25. According to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), about 11% of the crop has been harvested, progressing faster than the past two years but in line with 2022. Average yields were 6.9 mt/ha, around 11% below the five-year average, with regional variations heavily influenced by soil type and summer dryness. Despite this decline, wheat quality is strong, with protein content reaching 14% or higher in processed samples compared to 12.5% last year, boosting market value. While lighter soils have suffered from drought, heavier soils have performed better, highlighting moisture as the key limiting factor. Overall, the UK wheat market outlook is marked by lower volumes but stronger protein content, offering some balance between reduced supply and improved quality.

United States

Balancing Innovation, Regulation, and Trade in the US Market

The Colorado Wheat Research Foundation and BioSeries Crop Solutions have partnered to advance HB4 genetically modified (GM) wheat in the United States (US), aiming to enhance drought tolerance and secure climate resilience for future production. The HB4 trait, developed from a sunflower gene and already applied in Argentina, enables wheat to withstand stress and potentially increase yields under adverse weather. While promising, commercial adoption in the US faces delays due to regulatory requirements and the need for export market approvals, as several importing countries have yet to authorize GM wheat. This regulatory hurdle is particularly critical given the importance of international markets for US wheat exports.

Meanwhile, global trade continues actively, with South Korean mills recently purchasing about 50 thousand mt of US bread wheat at varying protein levels. Prices ranged from just over USD 200/mt to above USD 260/mt FOB. Alongside recent auctions in Asia and North Africa, these transactions highlight both the competitiveness of US wheat on the global market and the importance of regulatory acceptance in shaping the future of GM wheat adoption.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Wheat Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Wheat Pricing Important Exporters (W33 2024 to W33 2025) 

Russia

In W33, Russia’s wheat prices held steady week-on-week (WoW) and month-on-month (MoM) at USD 0.24/kg, marking a 9.09% YoY increase and reflecting stable demand. However, many farmers, particularly in the southern regions where harvesting is nearly complete, have opted to withhold sales, anticipating higher returns. Their reluctance is driven by dissatisfaction with current price levels and concerns over deteriorating prospects for late crops due to unfavorable weather. This withholding of supply, combined with solid export demand, suggests that prices could soon edge higher. Export activity is already gaining momentum, with Aug-25 shipments estimated at 3.8 mmt, nearly double Jul-25’s 2.0 mmt, though still below the 5.7 mmt exported in Aug-24. Benchmark prices between August 13 and 19 averaged USD 223.5/mt with no export tariff, compared with USD 224.2/mt and a tariff of USD 0.24/mt (RUB 19.4/mt) in the previous week. This highlights shifting market conditions as Russia positions itself for stronger exports in the coming months.

France

In W33, France’s wheat prices remained unchanged WoW, MoM, and YoY at USD 0.23/kg, underscoring a stable yet subdued market. The 2025 harvest is expected to surpass 2024’s low crop, with field reports pointing to better overall quality but persistent concerns over low protein levels. French mills typically require a minimum protein content of 11%, which also underpins Euronext’s grain futures contracts, while some foreign buyers demand at least 11.5%. This poses a challenge as France, the European Union’s (EU) largest wheat producer, must market a larger crop amid weakening global demand and intensifying competition from cheaper Black Sea grain. Non-EU exports are projected at just 7.5 mmt, raising the risk of ending stocks climbing to a 21-year high. Unlike last year, when smaller volumes found outlets in Morocco, West Africa, and limited shipments to Egypt and Thailand, demand in 2025 appears more constrained. Diplomatic friction with Algeria, reduced Chinese buying, and the impact of a strong euro further limit export prospects. At the same time, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria continue to dominate France’s traditional markets, forcing the possibility of diverting surplus wheat into feed channels. However, competition from maize and Spain’s strong harvest adds another layer of uncertainty.

Ukraine

In W33, Ukraine’s wheat prices held steady WoW and MoM at USD 0.24/kg, marking a 4.35% YoY increase. The stable short-term trend reflects a balanced market, while the YoY rise is tied to adverse weather that delayed harvesting and reduced grain quality, particularly in western regions. Prolonged rains in Jul-25 and early Aug-25 severely damaged crops in western and northern Ukraine, with 20% to 60% of harvested grain affected by fungal diseases such as smut, alternaria, and sooty mold. This led to a sharp increase in feed wheat supply, causing its price to fall significantly, while food-grade wheat became scarcer and maintained a strong premium. Though still usable as feed, substandard wheat is stored separately, and batches with smut levels above 25% are often rejected. As harvesting resumed with improving weather, large volumes of feed and lower-quality grain entered the market, reinforcing expectations that the share of feed wheat this season will be unusually high.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Strengthen Logistics and Market Diversification for Argentine Wheat

Argentina should leverage its record 2025/26 wheat crop by strengthening export logistics and diversifying markets to absorb the anticipated 20.5 mmt to 21.2 mmt harvest. Government and private sector stakeholders need to coordinate on infrastructure, particularly port operations and rail connectivity, to ensure timely exports. Establishing forward contracts with major buyers in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East will help mitigate potential oversupply pressures on domestic prices. Promoting Argentine wheat as a reliable alternative in protein-sensitive markets can further secure demand.

Leverage Segmentation and Quality Control to Sustain French Wheat Exports

French wheat producers and exporters should respond to protein challenges by segmenting their market strategy. Lower-protein wheat can be positioned toward feed and ethanol industries, while higher-protein batches should target milling and export demand with tighter quality control. To strengthen competitiveness, France should invest in agronomic programs that enhance nitrogen management and promote the use of protein boosters. Additionally, improving traceability and blending systems will allow exporters to meet Euronext and buyer specifications more consistently, preserving France’s reputation for high-quality milling wheat.

Safeguard Kazakhstan’s Wheat Competitiveness Through Policy and Market Diversification

With transport tariffs threatening long-term competitiveness, Kazakhstan should prioritize policy engagement to prevent excessive railway cost hikes. In parallel, stakeholders should explore alternative routes, such as the Trans-Caspian corridor, to diversify logistics. Enhancing domestic flour processing capacity would also help capture more value domestically and reduce dependence on bulk grain exports. For the short term, securing bilateral trade agreements with key buyers such as Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and China can stabilize export demand and shield the sector from global price volatility.

Sources: Tridge, Agravery, Oilworld, SuperAgronom, UkrAgroConsult