1. Weekly News

Colombia

Colombia's Avocado Exports to the US Surged

Colombia has been exporting avocados to Europe for over a decade, with the continent remaining its primary market. However, since entering the United States (US) market in 2017, exports to the US have been steadily increasing, reaching USD 23.4 million in 2023. In 2024, Colombia is expected to export 30 million kilograms (kg) of avocados to the US, driven by rising demand, particularly during periods of reduced Mexican supply. With 11.5 thousand hectares (ha) of avocado plantations, Colombia can supply the US market for 45 weeks annually. Although Europe remains Colombia's primary market, the US is projected to become equally important soon due to its proximity and strong demand for avocados.

Mexico

Mexico and US Strengthen Avocado Export Certification Process

Mexico and the United States (US) have agreed to transfer orchard sampling and certification activities for Mexican avocado exports to official Mexican inspectors from the Ministry of Agriculture (SADER). Approved by the United States Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), this shift recognizes Mexico's strong phytosanitary record in avocado exports over 27 years. While Mexican inspectors will oversee pest monitoring, APHIS will continue supervising packing facilities and verifying orchards as needed. Mexico, the world's top avocado producer, exports over 1.1 million tons annually, primarily to the US, Canada, Japan, and other markets.

Michoacán's Avocado Production Increased Amid Environmental Concerns

Avocado production in Michoacán, Mexico increased by 7% year-on-year (YoY) during the first eight months of 2024, reaching 1.29 million tons, up from 1.2 million tons the previous year. The state remains the largest avocado producer in Mexico, contributing 74.6% of the national production. However, this growth sparked environmental concerns, particularly regarding deforestation associated with illegal orchard expansions. In response, Michoacán's government launched the Pro Forest Avocado certification on Aug-24 to promote sustainable agricultural practices and regulate water usage in legally established orchards.

Peru

Peru’s Avocado Exports Dropped Amid Production Challenges Due to Extreme Weather

Peruvian Hass avocado exports declined by 11% YoY in 2024, with 23.5 thousand containers shipped by early Sep-24, down from 26.3 thousand containers the previous year. This decline is primarily due to extreme heat during late 2023 and early 2024, which negatively impacted avocado production, particularly along Peru's northern coast, where 45% of avocado trees are located. Despite the reduced export volume, prices remained stable throughout the year. Europe remains Peru's largest avocado market, followed by the US and Asia. The upcoming Chancay port will enhance export logistics, especially for distant markets like China and India. However, Peru's avocado production is expected to rebound in 2025.

Turkey

Turkey's Avocado Harvest Aims for 150 Million Units in 2024

The avocado harvest commenced in Alanya, Antalya, contributing 80% of Turkey's production. The region targets producing 150 million avocados in 2024, with exports to Russia, Georgia, and Iran and expansion plans into the European market. Avocados are cultivated on 17 thousand acres in Turkey. Wholesale prices range from USD 0.88 to 1.17/kg (TRY 30 to 40/kg), and retail prices range between USD 1.17 and 1.46/kg (TRY 40 to 50/kg). Despite a 30% YoY drop in the early Clifton variety, production is expected to rise as other varieties like Zutano and Bacon come into season. Alanya emphasizes food safety, supported by state incentives and good agricultural practices, to double exports from 55 to 100 million in 2024.

Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe Signs Avocado Export Agreement with China

Zimbabwe secured access to the Chinese market for its avocado exports following the signing of a phytosanitary protocol during the Zimbabwean President’s visit to Beijing. Zimbabwe now joins Kenya, South Africa, and Tanzania in exporting avocados to China. This agreement marks avocados as Zimbabwe's second fruit category allowed into China, after citrus fruits in 2022. Zimbabwe's avocado production is expected to reach 6 thousand metric tons (mt) in 2024, with plans to expand avocado cultivation from 1.5 thousand to 4 thousand ha by 2030. Further efforts are underway to open China's market to Zimbabwean blueberries, pecans, and macadamia nuts.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Avocado Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Avocado Pricing Important Exporters (W38 2023 to W38 2024)

Mexico

Mexico's avocado prices decreased by 7.82% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 4.60/kg in W38, reflecting an 11.54% month-on-month (MoM) decline. This reduction is primarily due to the substantial increase in production from Michoacán, which has seen a 7% YoY rise in production. The oversupply in the market has contributed to downward pressure on prices. However, there is a significant 69.74% YoY surge in avocado prices, attributed to last year's significantly lower production levels and heightened global demand, coupled with ongoing environmental concerns related to illegal orchard expansions, which have influenced pricing dynamics throughout the year.

Peru

In W38, avocado prices in Peru decreased slightly by 1.01% WoW to USD 0.98/kg due to favorable weather conditions, which supported smoother harvesting and steady supply, easing some upward pressure on prices. However, MoM and YoY prices increased by 8.89% MoM and 13.95% YoY due to a reduction in overall export volumes, with Peruvian Hass avocado exports experiencing an 11% YoY decrease in 2024. This lower export volume has tightened market supply compared to the previous year, contributing to the upward price trend over the longer term.

Spain

Avocado prices in Spain dropped by 7.15% WoW to USD 6.62/kg in W38 due to a slight increase in supply as some producers in regions like Huelva, Cádiz, and Valencia are transitioning to avocado farming from traditional crops, driven by higher profitability. However, prices increased by 2% MoM and 13.94% YoY due to ongoing high demand in the market, despite the overall challenges in production caused by drought conditions in primary areas like Axarquía. Combining improved supply dynamics and persistent demand influences the current pricing trend.

Chile

In Chile, avocado prices decreased by 4.01% WoW to USD 4.07/kg in W38, reflecting a 3.33% MoM decrease. This is due to improved supply conditions as more growers have increased their harvests, leading to a slight oversupply in the market. However, there is an increase of 13.69% YoY in avocado prices due to sustained high demand from key export markets like the US and the EU, coupled with reduced import volumes from competing countries. This ongoing demand continues to support higher prices than the previous year.

4. Actionable Recommendations

Enhance Export Logistics and Market Diversification

Peruvian avocado exporters should enhance logistics through the upcoming Chancay port to improve shipping efficiency, especially for markets like China and India. Additionally, they should diversify their market strategies by exploring new buyer partnerships and promotional campaigns in existing markets, mainly Europe, the US, and Asia. This proactive approach will help mitigate the impact of reduced production this year and position exporters for growth as avocado production rebounds in 2025.

Strengthen US Market Presence for Colombian Avocados

Colombian avocado exporters should intensify their marketing efforts in the US to capitalize on rising demand, especially during reduced supply from Mexico. This can be achieved by establishing partnerships with major retailers and leveraging targeted advertising campaigns highlighting Colombian avocados' quality and availability. Additionally, exporters should invest in logistics improvements to ensure consistent supply throughout the year, further solidifying Colombia’s position in the US market.

Implement Sustainable Practices to Stabilize Avocado Prices

Mexican avocado producers should adopt sustainable farming practices to mitigate the effects of illegal orchard expansions and enhance the quality of their avocados. This includes engaging in reforestation efforts, adhering to environmental regulations, and obtaining certifications for sustainable agriculture. By improving environmental stewardship, producers can boost consumer confidence and potentially stabilize prices in the market despite fluctuations in supply. Additionally, forming cooperatives to manage production levels and improve bargaining power can help mitigate oversupply issues.

Sources: Tridge, Sondakika, Iha, Producereport, Elperiodicodemexico, Agraria, BNN Bloomberg, Lavozdemichoacan, Freshplaza