1. Weekly News

Global

Forecasted European Milk Production Decline and US Growth

European milk production is expected to decline by 10 million tons by 2035 due to environmental regulations and labor shortages. Meanwhile, United States (US) milk output is forecasted to increase by 1.5% annually, reaching 19 million tons by 2035. South America's milk production is projected to rise by nearly 500 thousand tons annually. China's annual milk production is expected to increase by 8 million tons by 2035, driven by higher demand for premium dairy products.

Colombia

Colombian Dairy Cooperative Explores Brazilian Genetic Advancements in Tropical Dairy Production

Driven by Brazil’s expertise in tropical dairy genetics, 40 representatives from Colombia's largest dairy cooperative recently visited Brazil’s ABS biotechnology center in Uberaba. The group, representing farms supplying 2.3 million liters (L) of milk daily, explored advancements in Gir Leiteiro and Girolando cattle genetics. The cooperative’s director led the visit to deepen their understanding of the genetic selection process tailored for tropical conditions. The tour included visits to prestigious dairy farms and ABS labs specializing in sexed semen and embryos. Colombian producers appreciated Brazil’s genetic innovations, which offer promising solutions for milk production in tropical regions.

India

India's Milk Production Forecast Shows Modest Growth in 2025

India's cow milk production is projected to reach 103.2 million metric tons (mmt) in 2025, a modest increase from 101 mmt in 2024, driven by government support, favorable weather, and a steady increase in herd size. Key factors include higher government funding for dairy development, improving milk yields, and better weather conditions, which enhance fodder availability. Despite challenges like cattle diseases, India's milk production outlook for 2025 remains positive due to favorable conditions and rising milk prices.

Indonesia

Indonesia Secures Foreign Investment to Enhance Dairy and Beef Production

In a strategic move to increase milk production, Indonesia is set to welcome investment from a foreign company to import dairy cattle starting in 2025. This initiative aims to support the country’s long-term self-sufficiency goals in beef and milk production. Plans include developing large-scale dairy farms across Central Sulawesi, South Kalimantan, and South Sulawesi, with designated areas totaling thousands of hectares. The project involves approximately 250 thousand cattle and will establish facilities for breeding, quality feed production, and processing, helping bolster local milk supplies and contributing to national nutritional programs. This partnership builds on a recent agricultural agreement and presents growth opportunities for local and international stakeholders in Indonesia’s dairy market.

Ireland

Minister Details Funding for Genetic Improvements in Ireland's Beef Herd

Ireland's Minister for Agriculture announced funding for genetic improvements in the national beef herd. The National Bovine Genotyping Programme (NGP) received USD 11.46 million (EUR 10.7 million) in its first year, with future yearly costs of USD 16.07 million (EUR 15 million) shared between the Department of Agriculture, processors, and farmers. The Suckler Carbon Efficiency Programme (SCEP) also incentivizes using higher-genetic merit bulls to improve beef herd sustainability.

Finland

Finnish Farmers to Pay Environmental Damage Fees for Livestock

Starting in 2025, Finland will impose a fee on farmers for the potential environmental damage caused by their animals based on contamination risks. This fee, ranging from USD 214 to USD 32,117 (EUR 200 to EUR 30,000) annually, will affect large livestock farms, including pork, poultry, and dairy operations. The funds collected will support environmental damage remediation. The law also targets industrial sectors like mining and fertilizer production.

Russia

Russia’s Bashkiria Region Expands Dairy Industry with Major Breeding Cattle Purchase

In 2024, agricultural producers in Russia’s Bashkiria region acquired 2,543 heads of breeding cattle, mainly dairy breeds, as part of efforts to industrialize and expand the local dairy sector. The region plans to increase the number of large-scale dairy farms to 50 by 2030, with over 20 farms currently in operation and more under construction in various districts. Local breeding organizations, including 42 focused on dairy, play a significant role in supporting this growth. A 50% subsidy helps offset costs for farmers, promoting continued investment in high-quality herds.

United States

US Intensifies Monitoring for Avian Influenza H5N1 in Dairy Cattle Using Milk Sampling Strategy

The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has introduced a layered approach to increase testing and surveillance for avian influenza (H5N1) in dairy cattle. Since the virus was first detected in dairy cattle in Mar-24, efforts have focused on understanding its behavior in dairy herds to eradicate it. This strategy includes regular milk sampling, similar to the tank milk testing used previously to eliminate brucellosis. Colorado piloted this method to confirm H5N1-free status, with APHIS now working with states to implement regional milk testing, followed by targeted farm-level tests, until herds are confirmed virus-free.

Utah Dairy Cows Test Positive for Avian Influenza

The Utah Department of Agriculture and Food (UDAF) reported that dairy cows in eight commercial facilities in Cache County tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), marking the first cases among dairy cattle in the state. A quarantine was imposed, restricting the movement of lactating cows except for those going directly to slaughter, with increased biosecurity measures recommended to prevent further spread. The USDA confirmed the cases as part of ongoing surveillance. However, Utah State Veterinarian Daniel Christensen stated that the virus’s impact on dairy cattle is minimal and doesn’t threaten the food supply. This incident is part of a broader HPAI outbreak across 15 states, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) affirming no public health risk.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Powdered Milk Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Powdered Milk Pricing Important Exporters (W44 2023 to W44 2024)

Germany

Milk prices in Germany have seen a sharp decline, dropping to USD 2.86 per kilogram (kg) in W44, marking a significant week-on-week (WoW) decrease of 25.52%, a month-on-month (MoM) fall of 18.05% and a year-on-year (YoY) decrease of 12%. In 2024, prices surged as extreme heat and the bluetongue virus reduced milk supply, causing production challenges and increasing prices. However, supply constraints have eased with cooler temperatures improving production conditions, driving recent price declines. As winter approaches, increased production capacity is expected to stabilize prices further. However, longer-term supply pressures from expected European environmental regulations and labor shortages could tighten production in the coming months, potentially leading to future price increases.

Belgium

Belgium's milk prices have remained relatively stable, with a slight increase of 1.30% WoW and 1.56% MoM, from USD 3.85 in W43 2024 to USD 3.90 in W44 2024, though the YoY change remains a modest -0.51%. Compared to other countries analyzed, Belgium shows the most stability in its milk pricing, with these short-term fluctuations occurring after a more significant price volatility period. Future price trends may drop due to ongoing productivity improvements in Belgium's dairy sector, where average lifetime milk production per dairy cow reached a record 31,323 kg in the 2023/24 season. The rise of high-yield cows could increase milk supply, potentially leading to price reductions unless producers secure new exporting markets to absorb the additional output.

Netherlands

Milk prices in the Netherlands have increased to USD 2.67 in W44, reflecting a 5.12% WoW change, a 12.18% MoM increase, and a YoY rise of 2.69%. This price surge is primarily driven by supply constraints related to bluetongue virus outbreaks affecting dairy cattle, which, although not fatal, reduce milk production. Global supply challenges, including highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), continue to keep prices elevated. As European milk production is expected to decline in the coming years due to environmental regulations and labor shortages, these ongoing supply issues may further impact the dairy industry, pushing prices even higher.

France

Milk prices in France have experienced a decrease in recent weeks, with a 4.02% WoW drop and a 5.54% MoM decline to USD 3.58 in W44. These price reductions reflect the easing of summer effects as cooler weather improves milk production. France's milk supply is increasing, contributing to price stabilization. However, despite the recent price drops, the YoY change remains substantial, showing a 24.31% increase, indicating that milk prices are still elevated compared to last year. This year's supply constraints, mainly due to factors like the bluetongue virus and other disruptions, have kept prices high. In contrast, the previous year saw a more stable and abundant supply, leading to more moderate prices.

Poland

Milk prices in Poland recently dropped to USD 2.41/kg in W44, reflecting an 8.71% WoW decrease and a 7.31% MoM decline. This reduction comes as a price adjustment following a period of high prices driven by earlier supply shortages. However, the YoY price still reflects a 3.88% increase, underscoring the ongoing impact of tight supply conditions due to unfavorable weather and high temperatures in European and global markets. The high demand for Polish milk also keeps prices higher. Looking further ahead, European milk production is forecasted to remain low, which might cause further price increases.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Adopt Tropical-Adapted Breeds for Enhanced Dairy Production in Warm Climates

Producers should adopt breeding practices using tropical-adapted genetics like Gir Leiteiro and Girolando, which are resilient to heat and region-specific diseases to boost dairy productivity in tropical climates. These breeds can increase milk yields and reduce losses from climatic stress. Producers can start by assessing herd productivity needs and working with genetic advisors to identify ideal traits, possibly incorporating crossbreeding to maintain local adaptability while enhancing resilience. Accessing training and financial resources from government or private stakeholders can offset initial costs, making this transition more viable. Monitoring milk output, health, and environmental resilience post-adoption will help refine breeding strategies and maximize long-term gains.

Implement Strategies for Disease Prevention and Control in Dairy Cows

Producers should implement strict biosecurity measures to combat current diseases affecting dairy cows, improve disease surveillance, and enhance animal health practices. Begin by isolating and monitoring infected animals to prevent transmission and to enhance biosecurity protocols, such as controlling visitor access and regularly sanitizing equipment and facilities. Increase disease surveillance by adopting regular health screenings, especially for high-risk diseases like avian influenza (H5N1), and using milk sampling techniques to detect pathogens early. Vaccinations should be prioritized where available, and dairy farmers should work closely with veterinarians to develop customized vaccination schedules based on the disease profile in their region. Enhance animal immunity by focusing on high-quality nutrition and stress management and providing clean, well-ventilated environments that limit the spread of airborne diseases. Finally, cross-training staff on biosecurity and disease prevention measures should be considered to ensure all workers understand and contribute to these practices effectively.

Sources: Tridge, Agriland IE, Agri Holland, Agro Digital, Agro Vestie, Canal Rural BR, Meat Poultry, Portal do Agronegocio, Republika, The Cattle Site, Veeteelt,