According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), 2023/24 global rice production is anticipated to be 517.80 million metric tons (mmt), showing a slight decrease of 0.07% compared to the Oct-23 estimate of 518.14 mmt. The US is expected to contribute 6.98 mmt to global rice production, while foreign markets are projected to produce 510.82 mmt. Compared to the 2022/23 campaign, there is an estimated increase of 4.44 mmt of rice (1%), as the previous season's estimate was 513.36 mmt.
As of Oct-23, Vietnam exported 7.1 mmt of rice, generating USD 3.97 billion in foreign exchange revenue. Compared to the same period in 2022, export volume and value increased by 17% and 34.9%, respectively. The average export price of rice is now USD 558/mt, representing a 15.3% year-on-year (YoY) rise. In the span of 10 months, the Philippines emerged as Vietnam's leading rice export market, receiving a volume of 2.63 mmt, valued at USD 1.4 billion. Although there was a 4% YoY decline in volume, the value increased by 11.1% YoY. Meanwhile, Indonesia surpassed China to become Vietnam's second-largest rice export market. Vietnam exported 1 mmt of rice to Indonesia, amounting to USD 554.6 million. This marks a remarkable 18-fold increase in volume and a 20-fold increase in value compared to 2022. Indonesia now accounts for 14.6% of Vietnam's total rice exports over the past ten months.
In early Nov-23, Vietnam's rice export prices continued to rise, reaching the highest among the world's major rice exporters. Notably, the export price of 5% broken rice in Vietnam occasionally reached USD 663/mt, surpassing prices in Thailand and Pakistan, which range from USD 560 to USD 570/mt. Similarly, the export price of Vietnam's 25% broken rice is USD 648/mt, compared to USD 488/mt in Thailand and Pakistan.
Thailand has revised its 2023 rice export target to 8.5 mmt due to increasing rice prices, particularly from competitors like Vietnam. The head of the Thai Rice Exporters Association stated that countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia are placing higher orders for Thai rice because Vietnamese rice is relatively more expensive. Despite some impact from the El Niño weather phenomenon, the country's rice production is expected to reach between 33 and 34 mmt in the 2023/24 season, an increase of 2 mmt from the previous year. During the Jan-23 to Sept-23 period, Thailand sold 6.08 mmt of rice, reflecting a 12% YoY increase.
In Paraguay, approximately 80 thousand hectares (ha) of rice-cultivated land are at risk due to overflowing rivers and excessive rainfall. Specifically, about 54% of the country's rice-growing area, concentrated along the banks of the Tebicuary River, is under threat. The significant impact on these areas, especially in regions like San Juan, complicates the estimation of potential production losses at this stage. The extent of the damage is uncertain and will depend on future weather conditions, adding complexity to the situation.
India, the world's leading rice exporter, is expected to maintain rice export restrictions in the upcoming year. The continuation of these measures is anticipated, particularly with the possibility of a re-election in 2024. The persistence of these restrictions is likely linked to the need to prevent domestic rice prices from experiencing upward pressure.