1. Weekly News

Bangladesh

Severe Soybean Oil Shortage Hits Dhaka Amid Ramadan

Amid an ongoing supply shortage that has lasted over a month, bottled soybean oil in Bangladesh has largely disappeared from Dhaka's shops and markets, including Kawran Bazar. Despite reassurances from the advisor at the Ministry of Commerce, and Ministry of Textile & Jute of Bangladesh that the crisis would soon be resolved, the shortage persists, particularly with Ramadan approaching. Consumers have been struggling to find the essential commodity, and store owners report limited or no supply, with some alleging that millers have reduced supply. The Bangladesh Vegetable Oil Refiners and Vanaspati Manufacturers’ Association (BVOReVMA) assured that the crisis would end soon, citing increased supply ahead of Ramadan. However, the situation is expected to normalize only by February 26 or 27, with authorities urging consumers to remain patient.

India

India Poised to Raise Import Duties on Soybean Oil Due to Falling Domestic Oilseed Prices

India is expected to raise import duties on vegetable oils for the second time in six months to support struggling oilseed farmers facing declining domestic prices. This tariff increase could raise local prices for vegetable oils, including soybean oil while reducing demand and imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil. Following a previous hike in Sep-24, import duties on crude palm oil, crude soybean oil, and crude sunflower oil increased to 27.5%, while refined oils saw a duty of 35.75%. Despite the higher tariffs, domestic soybean prices remain below the support price, and oilseed farmers are under pressure. The government is considering the potential impact on food inflation before finalizing the new duty increase.

Ukraine

Ukraine Becomes EU's Top Soybean Oil Supplier Despite Declining Vegetable Oil Imports

Ukraine exported a record 0.33 million metric tons (mmt) of soybean oil to the European Union (EU) in 2024, a 37% increase from the previous year, despite a broader decline in EU vegetable oil imports to a 12-year low of 1.38 mmt. The drop in overall imports was driven by reduced domestic production of rapeseed and sunflower oil and weaker biofuel industry demand. Meanwhile, Argentina cut its soybean oil exports to the EU by 25% to 0.14 mmt, enabling Ukraine to become the region’s top supplier. However, competition is rising from used cooking oil (UCO) imports, which surged by 22% year-on-year (YoY) to 2 mmt, primarily from Southeast Asia, affecting demand for conventional vegetable oils.

United States

US Soybean Processing Hits 5.45 MMT in Jan-25, Despite Weather Challenges

The United States (US) soybean processing reached 5.45 mmt in Jan-25, a slight decrease of 169,000 metric tons (mt) from the previous month but still the second-highest on record, up 7.9% from Jan-24. The decrease was due to severe winter weather and an oversupply of soybean meal, which led some companies to slow processing. Domestic demand for soybean oil has declined, while stocks remain high. Globally, soybean processing rose by 1.9 mmt to 349.3 mmt, and world trade in soybean meal increased by over 300,000 mt to 107.4 mmt, according to the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Feb-25 report.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Soybean Oil Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Soybean Oil Pricing Important Exporters (W8 2024 to W8 2025)

Argentina

Argentina's soybean oil prices rose to USD 1.10 per kilogram (kg) in W8, reflecting a 3.77% week-on-week (WoW) and 35.80% YoY increase. The surge is driven by record-high soybean crushing in 2024, supported by strong export demand. However, with 17% of Argentina's processed soybeans sourced from imports—mainly Paraguay—concerns over lower Paraguayan yields in the 2024/25 season could tighten supply, potentially sustaining or further increasing prices.

Brazil

Brazil's soybean oil prices fell to USD 1.20/kg in W8, down 1.64% WoW and 19.46% month-on-month (MoM), driven by weaker domestic biodiesel demand. The government's decision to maintain the biodiesel blend at 14% instead of increasing it to 15% reduced expected biodiesel sales growth, limiting demand for soybean oil. While record soybean harvests further pressured prices, industry groups anticipate a policy revision that could boost demand. In the short term, lower prices may enhance Brazil’s export competitiveness, influencing global soybean oil markets, but a potential policy shift could reverse this trend.

United States

US soybean oil prices rose to USD 1.03/kg in W8, reflecting a 1.98% WoW increase and a 5.10% yearly rise. The USDA's Feb-25 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report kept its forecast for 2024/25 soybean oil use in biofuel production at 13.6 billion pounds (lbs), an increase from the previous years. With global soybean crush estimates rising due to strong biofuel demand, the upward trend in soybean oil prices is likely to continue. However, the reduction in global ending stocks to 124.3 mmt suggests potential tightening in supply, which could further support higher soybean oil prices in the short to medium term.

Netherlands

The Netherlands' soybean oil prices rose by 1.85% WoW to USD 1.10/kg, marking a 22.22% YoY increase. As a key European trade hub, the country imports over 99% of its soy supply, with the Port of Rotterdam facilitating re-exports of soybean oil across Europe. The recent price increase reflects both rising global soybean oil costs and regional demand factors. However, future price trends will depend on continued supply flows from Brazil and Argentina, European biodiesel market conditions, and broader economic factors. If biodiesel demand weakens or South American exports remain strong, Dutch soybean oil prices may stabilize or decline. Conversely, disruptions in supply chains or shifts in European renewable energy policies could push prices higher.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Strengthen Supply Chain Resilience in Bangladesh

To address ongoing soybean oil shortages, Bangladeshi importers and retailers should diversify suppliers and establish buffer stocks ahead of peak demand periods like Ramadan. Increased coordination with refiners and government agencies can improve distribution efficiency and prevent future disruptions.

Monitor India's Import Policy Impact on Prices

With India's expected import duty hike on vegetable oils, including soybean oil, exporters should assess shifts in demand and explore alternative markets. Indian refiners and food manufacturers may also need to adjust sourcing strategies to mitigate cost increases.

Leverage Brazil's Price Competitiveness for Export Growth

As Brazil's soybean oil prices decline due to weaker biodiesel demand, exporters should target price-sensitive markets to capitalize on competitive pricing. Expanding trade agreements and promoting exports to regions facing supply shortages, such as Bangladesh, could boost market opportunities.

Sources: Tridge, UkrAgroConsult, Biomass Magazine, New Age, Market Screener, Infobae, Reuters