Weekly Product Updates

W8 Almond Update: Decreased End Stock Boosts US Almond Market Outlook and First Organic Almond Harvest in Türkiye

Almond Kernel
Published Feb 27, 2024
In W8 in the almond landscape, Rabobank predicts that the unsold US almonds could drop to less than 500 million lbs by the end of MY 2023/24, decreasing global ending stocks and maintaining almond prices above USD 2/lb. Furthermore, in the first half of MY 2023/24, US almond exports to Asia-Pacific and Europe increased 19% and 5% YoY, respectively, while domestic shipments decreased 1% YoY. The total shipments surpassed 1.38 billion lbs and crop receipts totaled over 2.39 billion lbs despite pest damage. In addition, farmers in Mersin, Türkiye, completed their first organic almond harvest, and the sales started 20 days earlier due to warm weather.

Positive Outlook for US Almond Market Due to Decreased Endstock

According to the head of RaboResearch Food and Agribusiness for North America, the unsold almonds in the United States (US) could drop to less than 500 million pounds (lbs) by the end of marketing year (MY) 2023/24, which is a significant improvement from the previous year's 800 million lbs. Additionally, the global ending stocks are expected to decrease to 700 million lbs, which could be great news for the growers as it could give them a chance to earn profitable returns. Rabobank is optimistic that the market stability could help maintain prices above USD 2/lb, with fewer chances of them going towards USD 3/lb.

During the first half of MY 2023/24, almond exports in the US showed a 12% year-on-year (YoY) increase. However, domestic shipments decreased by about 1% YoY. The Asian-Pacific markets saw a YoY increase of 19%, whereas European exports showed an increase of 8% YoY. The total shipments exceeded 1.38 billion lbs, more than a 50% rise of the expected crop size from the last season. Despite high levels of unmarketable nuts or rejects due to pest damage, crop receipts totaled more than 2.39 billion lbs.

Türkiye’s First Organic Almond Harvest Started in Mersin

Farmers in the coastal areas of Mersin, Türkiye, have recently completed their first organic almond harvest. They are pleased that the sales have begun 20 days earlier than usual due to warm weather. Although the current price is relatively high due to the initial round of the season, it is forecasted to decrease in the coming days as the harvest increases.

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