W2: Weekly Beef Update
Live Beef
Europe: Beef Herd Forecasted to Decline Further in 2023 (Jan 14)
The Bord Bia Export Performance and Prospects Report 2022/23 outlined that the EU Commission forecasted the size of the EU beef herd to decline further in 2023. The report outlined that notable reductions in the beef herd are likely across several markets, including France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands. The report also noted that UK beef supplies, however, are expected to show “a small increase” in 2023 compared to 2022 levels. The outlook for beef export markets “remains uncertain for 2023”, according to the report. It noted that both global and EU beef supplies look set to remain “well balanced”, and outlined that the critical factor in determining price developments will be the impact of cost-of-living factors and consumer sentiment on beef-purchasing behavior.
US: Fescue Foot Reported in Missouri Cattle (Jan 9)
At the start of the new year, several Missouri cattlemen have reported their cattle dying of fescue foot. These significant losses show why beef producers should check herds for warning signs of fescue foot in early January, when it most often occurs, says University of Missouri Extension forage expert, Craig Roberts. Cows that graze on infected fescue are vulnerable to fescue foot following extreme cold spells, he says. During cold weather, producers might notice that some cows or yearlings on fescue pastures move slowly or limp early in the day.
US: Live Cattle Futures Are Steady to Higher (Jan 11)
Live cattle futures were steady to higher on Jan 10 on tightening supplies and a firm cash market outlook. Average cattle weights have declined, according to USDA data, following recent stressful conditions at feedlots due to harsh winter weather. The lighter cattle weights would reduce total beef production and underpin prices, traders said. Cash cattle prices at Plains feedlot markets are expected to be steady to higher when trading develops later this week, they said. February live cattle ended unchanged at USD 3,477.79/MT (157.750 cents/pound) while April futures were up USD 0.00125 (0.125 cents) at USD 3,563.77/MT (161.650 cents). March feeder cattle futures gained USD 0.002 (0.200 cent) to USD 4,111.62/MT (186.500 cents/pound).
Australia: Tens of Thousands of Farm Animals Could Die Due to Flooding (Jan 11)
Australian livestock farmers expect serious losses in the number of cattle due to the worst flooding in the last 100 years in one of the regions of Western Australia. After heavy rains caused by extratropical cyclone Ellie, the Fitzroy River flooded above its record level. Currently, the flood zone in some places in Kimberley County extends up to 50 km. State livestock representative Cattle Australia has reported severe damage to livestock farms and backyards and potential significant loss of livestock, which cannot be accurately assessed at the time.
Australia: Weekly Cattle Market Wrap (Jan 13)
Cattle in the first full week of cattle sales for 2023, the market delivered some valuable insights for producers and the industry more broadly. Overall, the market and prices eased in the final weeks of selling for 2022 and are significantly below the record highs experienced 12 months prior during January of last year where all indicators broke records. Despite softening in prices, market commentary across the sale yards in W2 identified that quality bred and finished stock were continuing to demand premiums to the general market and were the least affected in terms of price compared to previous sales. This trend will continue to remain a hallmark of 2023 and prices paid for better bred and finished animals will remain constant.
Netherlands: Slaughtered More Cattle Last Year (Jan 9)
A total of 481.98K cattle were slaughtered last year which translated to 9.27K/week. In 2021 that was 475.11K cattle, indicating about 9.14K weekly. It is striking that the difference was mainly made in the second half of 2022. In the last 26 weeks of that year, an average of 9.72K cattle were slaughtered, compared to 9.40K in the last half of 2021. Halfway through 2022, the price for slaughter cattle increased significantly. The average carcass weight in 2022 was at 328.45 kg, which was significantly less than the 335.52 kg over the whole of 2021. That brought the total carcass weight to 17.02 kg, 2.1% less than in 2021.
Ireland: Minister Must Guarantee Farmers Won’t Pay For Additional TB Tests (Jan 12)
Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine Charlie McConalogue has been urged to guarantee that farmers will not be required to finance additional bovine tuberculosis (TB) testing obligations. “Explicit guarantees” that farmers will not be burdened with additional costs for increased TB testing or control must be provided, independent TD for Laois-Offaly Carol Nolan has said.
Ireland: Exported USD 248.60M Worth of Livestock in 2022 (Jan 15)
The total value of all types of livestock exported from Ireland in 2022 was USD 248.60M (€230M), which is 6% of the total of USD 4.32B (€4B) in meat and livestock exports from Ireland in 2022, according to Bord Bia’s Export Performance and Prospects Report for 2022/23. The report outlined that the live export trade continues to provide “an important alternative market for the Irish livestock sector”. The 2022 value represents an 8% increase from the USD 232.39 (€215M) figure in 2021. Cattle exports account for the majority of the live export trade with 285K cattle exported during 2022 and with an export value of USD 183.75M (€170M). Live cattle exports increased by 15% compared to 2021 levels, a trend that was mainly driven by an increase in the intra-community trading of calves.
Brazil: Drought Already Harms Cattle Herds in Rio Grande Do Sul (Jan 11)
The drought, which once again affects Rio Grande do Sul, has already caused irreversible losses to cattle ranchers in the state. According to the Develops Livestock Institute, with the pastures damaged by the climate, the animals are sent to slaughterhouses without the proper weight. There is also delay in the reproduction of herds due to the drought, registered for the third consecutive year.
Argentina: The Cattle Market Conditions Are Showing Signs of a Repeat of the Loss of Stock in 2008 (Jan 9)
Dardo Chiesa, Coordinator of the Meat Table said that the cattle ranch is in a bankruptcy situation that causes many producers to go out of business. Chiesa stressed that the situation is an explosive soup and that he hopes that what happened in 2008, when more than 10M head of cattle were lost, will not be repeated.
Argentina: Expansion of Genetics With the First Export of Bulls for Breeding to Chile (Jan 9)
The National Agri-Food Health and Quality Service (Senasa) certified this week for the first time the export to Chile of four purebred bulls intended for breeding, which meant a "historic" event for the agency and Argentina, in the search to expand its genetics in different markets of the world. The operation included the sale of four elderly Hereford and Angus breeding cattle from a herd located in the town of Trevelin, Chubut province, destined for the Chilean town of Coyhaique.
UK: Cattle Prices End 2022 on Historic High (Jan 13)
In the 4 weeks to 31 December, average prices for all prime cattle were slightly above the previous period at USD 545.33/kg (442.6p). In the final week of the period, and year, prices peaked at USD 552.11/kg (448.1p), the highest on record (back to 2014). Overall steer prices slightly increased on those seen in November, up USD 0.86 (0.7p) (0.1%), and ranged between USD 545.09 (442.4p) and USD 553.10 (448.9p) during the period. When compared with the same timeframe last year, prices are up by USD 45.34 (36.8p) (9.0%). Overall heifer prices slightly increased to average USD 544.47/kg (441.9p), up by USD 1.11 (0.9p) (0.2%) in November, and USD 43.37 (35.2p) (8.7%) in December last year. Young bulls were the only category of prime cattle to see prices easing in the 4-week period ending 31 December, averaging USD 520.57/kg (422.5p). This was a depreciation of USD 5.91 (4.8p )(1.1%) in November, however still remains USD 42.63 (34.6p) (8.9%) above prices seen last December. Overall cow prices averaged USD 408.57/kg (331.6p) in the 4-weeks to 31 December, up USD 4.93 (4p) (1.2%) in the previous month.
Colombia: Cattle Supply and Price Paid to the Producer in Córdoba and Sucre Rose in 2022 (Jan 11)
In 2022, the live cattle trade indicators in the departments of Sucre and Córdoba were better than in 2021. The supply of animals at auction grew, while the price index received by the producer reached historical highs in all categories. At the end of the year, the Observatory of Agricultural Prices and Costs of the Northwestern Colombian Caribbean Zone (OPCA) of the University of Córdoba reported that the real price of fattening, pre-baiting and fat females exceeded the levels of last year. The same behavior was observed in the northern cattle-raising region of Colombia, where the supply increased and the real price set new historical peaks. In contrast, the real price decline phase, which began in June, completed 7 continuous months.
Kazakhstan: Increased Imports of Small Ruminants by Almost 8 Times (Jan 12)
The Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan informed which countries livestock is brought to Kazakhstan. According to official statistics, in January-October 2022, Kazakhstan exported 2.2K heads of cattle worth USD 1.4M. In physical terms, deliveries fell by 59.5 times, and in value by 37.8 times. All 2.2K heads were shipped to Uzbekistan. But it is noted that supplies to this country have decreased by 55 times. At the same time, 8.2K heads of imported bulls and cows were brought to Kazakhstan. This volume was twice lower than a year ago. Russia became a major supplier of cattle, which supplied 3K heads to Kazakhstan, while reducing last year's volume by more than three times.
Russia: Launch of New Subsidy for Livestock Breeders (Jan 9)
From January 1, 2023, a new type of support for livestock breeders began to operate in Russia, reimbursement of part of the costs of raising cattle and subsequent production. It is planned to allocate USD 8.72M (600M rubles) for these purposes in 2023. The subsidy will be provided at a rate per 1 kg of live weight. The funds will be distributed by the authorities of the regions, according to a government decree.
Morocco: Suspends Cattle Imports From UK and Northern Ireland Due to Cow Disease (Jan 10)
Morocco has decided to suspend imports of cattle and cattle meat from the UK and Northern Ireland in a bid to avoid the outbreak of any type of diseases related to Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) also known as the “mad cow disease.” The country’s new measure took effect starting January 5.
Fresh Beef
Global: Beef Production Will Stagnate in the World (Jan 11)
The USDA projected that in 2023, bovine meat will close with 59.2M MT, being not only the protein with the lowest production, but also the only one that would experience stagnation, with a slight contraction of 0.2%. In this case, the largest contributor would also be the United States, although with a 6.2% lower performance in inter-annual terms, amounting to 12.01M MT; the second position would be occupied by Brazil, where a limited increase of 0.9% is expected.
US: Beef Meat Export (Jan 9)
Beef exports failed to yield the same growth as pork in November. Exports totaled 115.78K MT, down 6% from the previous 2021 large volume. Export value lessened to USD 846.6M, down almost 20%. However, through the first 11 months of 2022, beef export value totaled USD 10.9B, an increase of 14% YoY, topping the full-year record of USD 10.58B set in 2021. On top of setting a global value record, US beef exports also set annual value records in several individual markets. January-November exports to South Korea reached USD 2.51B, a full-year record for Korea but also for any single destination.
US: The Value of Beef Exports Was USD 11B (Jan 10)
With a value of USD 10.90B, US beef exports through the month of November, set a new annual record high, leaving behind that of USD 10.58B established in 2021. In the 11 months recorded by the United States Meat Exporters Federation (USMEF), shipments totaling 1.36M MT were detailed, 3% more than the same months in 2021. USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom explained that the November results for US beef exports reflected “strong headwinds in large Asian markets” , this was where the month closed with exports totals in the order of 115.78MT and a value of USD 846.6M, in both cases contractions of 6% and 20% respectively were estimated.
Australia TA: Australian Beef Exports Dropped to New 19-Year Low in 2022 (Jan 10)
Australian beef exports fell to a 19-year low in 2022, as the herd rebuilding process continues. Fresh, chilled, and frozen beef and veal exports dropped to only 855K MT in 2022, a decline of 4% from 2021 and the lowest since 2003. Exports to all major destinations declined YoY, except for China. (Continue Reading)
Australia: Red Meat Exports 2022 in Review (Jan 12)
Beef exports totaled 854.60K MT for 2022, down 4% from 2021 and the lowest total exports since 2003. Export volumes fell in most major markets, with Japan and the USA each falling 8%, South-East Asia and the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region falling 6%, and South Korea falling 3%. The exception was China, where beef exports rose by 7% to 158K MT for the year. Despite this, high demand led to strong prices for beef exports. Prices peaked in June at USD 8.31/kg (A$12.07) and averaged USD 7.63 (A$11.09) for the year-to-October, meaning that in value terms, Australian exports had the biggest year since 2019, even as supply was substantially smaller.
Ireland: Irish Beef Exports to the UK Increase 15% (Jan 11)
Exports of Irish beef to the UK increased 15% to reach USD 1.19B (€1.1B), remaining consistent at 43% of total Irish beef exports. Due to continued strong consumer demand, the UK remains the largest single market for Irish beef exports, reinforcing the importance of Ireland as a key strategic partner and supplier of premium quality grass fed beef.
Ireland: Access to China Will Protect Ireland From Brexit Impacts (Jan 11)
MEP Colm Markey said that the resumption of beef exports to the lucrative Chinese market “will insulate the Irish beef sector from Brexit exposure”. He stated that the UK previously accounted for a huge portion of the beef export market, totaling 79% in the first six months of 2021. As a result, Brexit left the Irish market exposed and it is important that the government focuses on alleviating that.
Ireland: USD 2.86B Worth of Irish Beef and Offal Exported in 2022 (Jan 11)
The combined value of Irish beef and beef offal exports increased by 18% in 2022 to an estimated value of USD 2.86B (€2.65B). The Bord Bia Export Performance and Prospects Report 2022/23 which was on January 11, outlined that the value of beef exports in 2022 was estimated at USD 2.72B (€2.52B), which represented an increase of USD 414.69M (€384M), 18% higher compared to 2021 figures. The report also outlined that the value of beef offal exports increased by 17% to USD 144.71M (€134M), leaving the combined value of beef and offal exports 18% higher than 2021 at an estimated USD 2.86B (€2.65B).
Mexico: The Entry of Beef From Argentina, the Controversy Continues (Jan 11)
In the vice-presidency of the vigilance council of the Association of Bovine Cattle Feeders of the Northeast, Obed González Flores denounced that the entry of beef to Mexico, coming from Argentina, represents two fundamental risks for national livestock. The first in the health issue because of foot-and-mouth disease, and the second because of a low price issue that would compete unfairly with Mexican meat production. As reported by the Reforma Agency, the production price per kilo of beef in Argentina was up to 69% lower than in Mexico, due to the extension of existing pastures in the South American country and the finishing weight of cattle, which averages 300 kg. In Mexico, the leader of the fatteners explained, the price was around USD 3.11 (58 pesos), versus the USD 0.59 (18) that was estimated in Argentina. In addition to the weight, he specified that in Mexico the calves enter with 200 kg and end up over 550.
Mexico: Authorizes Beef Imports From Argentina (Jan 13)
The Argentine government said on Jan 13 that Mexico had authorized the entry of beef from 22 slaughterhouses in the South American country, a traditional exporter of the food. The Argentine government indicated that the Mexican market was open to imports of boneless and aged beef. “Mexico is a strategic partner of Argentina, and the opening of this new market generates new opportunities”, stated the secretariat. According to the latest official sector data, between January and November, Argentina exported 825.39K MT of beef, of which 76.5% were destined for the Chinese market.
Brazil: Mercosur Beef Exports Will Stop Growing in 2023 (Jan 11)
Mercosur beef exports will contract moderately in 2023. According to projections made by Faxcarne, they would fluctuate at 4.68M MT of carcass weight, some 60K MT less than the 2022 record. Bovine meat production in Mercosur is projected to increase 1% this year, mainly driven by the liquidation phase of the cattle cycle in Brazil. However, this growth would be destined in a greater proportion to domestic consumption, which will become a more attractive destination due to the drop in the prices of livestock and meat in the international market, making the product reach the consumer at relatively low prices.
Brazil TA: Record Brazilian Beef Exports in 2022, Although Prices Close the Year in a Downward Trend (Jan 13)
Total Brazilian beef exports reached new records in both volume and value in 2022, led by soaring demand in China. Beef exports in terms of value totaled USD 11.8B, up 48% YoY and in terms of volume totaled 2.0M MT, up 17% YoY. The average price in 2022 was also the highest on record, but December’s prices were the lowest in 12 months and grew at the slowest YoY pace since February 2021. Export value in 2023 is expected to decline due to lower prices. (Continue Reading)
The USDA’s Foreign Audit Reports for Japan and Israel was released during the past week. Japan’s food safety systems for raw intact beef products were the subject of fieldwork from July 19 to August 17, 2022. The final reports were released to the Japanese government on Jan 3, 2023, and to the Israeli government on Jan 5, 2023. The purpose of the Japanese audit was to verify whether Japan’s food safety inspection system governing raw intact beef products remains equivalent to that of the United States, with the ability to export products that are safe, wholesome, unadulterated, and properly labeled and packaged. Japan currently exports raw intact beef products to the United States.
Colombia: Could Start Exporting Meat to United States in Two Years (Jan 10)
According to the protocols that must be followed, Colombia could start exporting beef to the United States within two years, said the outgoing manager of the Colombian Agricultural Institute (ICA), Deyanira Barrero León. According to what was stated by the director, this month (January) they should be receiving the audit report that they carried out and what was agreed at the closing meeting of that visit was that after receiving the report, six additional months in which the United States is going to have the time to finalize the risk assessment. This evaluation has already completed a documentary stage, the on-site audit, and now they are completing the analysis in the following six months. After that time, they place the result of that evaluation in a public consultation that is regulated and that has a minimum term of 60 days, which would mean eight months.
South Korea: Beef Prices Are Still Low, Ahead of New Year’s Eve (Jan 10)
With the Lunar New Year holidays approaching, Korean beef prices are still at a low level, raising concerns among Korean beef farmers who have waited for the stock. On the 5th, the national average wholesale price of Korean beef was USD 14.12/kg (17,407 won), down 12.8% from the same period last year. As the holiday draws near, the price of Hanwoo beef seems to fall further, and the national average wholesale price fell to the USD 12.98 (16,000 won) range on the 10th. Compared to last year, when the price of Korean beef declined slightly from the point two weeks before the Lunar New Year holiday, this year's Korean beef price is remarkably low. At the distribution site, consumption of grilled meat, which serves as a driver of Korean beef prices, was found to be sluggish. Demand for home consumption at hypermarkets and butchers, as well as at restaurants, is sluggish, and demand for gift sets for explanations is also weaker than last year.
China: Reopens Market for the Irish Beef (Jan 9)
The Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM) has confirmed the resumption of Irish beef exports to China. Beef shipments to China were suspended following the confirmation in May 2020 by the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine of an isolated case of atypical BSE. This isolated case was detected by the department’s surveillance program, did not enter the food chain and posed no risk to human health. Atypical BSE occurs naturally and sporadically in all cattle populations at a very low rate and is not considered a public health risk.
China: The Price of Uruguayan Beef Remains Stable During W1 in the Chinese Market (Jan 12)
In China, the market price of Uruguayan beef during W1 2023 did not differ much from W1 2022. References for Chuck and Blade were priced at USD 4.75K/MT, shin & shank at USD 6.60K/MT CFR, round cuts at USD 5.60K/MT, and eye round at USD 6.70K/MT, all CFR. Sales from Uruguay were of 80vl trimmings at USD 3.45K/MT and bone-in cow quarters at USD 3.90K/MT, both CFR. For reference, Chile, a country that does not pay tariffs due to the Free Trade Agreement with China, sold bone-in cow quarters between USD 4.60K and USD 4.70K/MT CFR.
