W28: Chicken Update

In W28 in the chicken landscape, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that chicken meat prices on the global market in Jun-23 increased by 1.41% month-on-month (MoM) but decreased by 10.29% year-on-year (YoY). The increase in chicken meat prices in Jun-23 was attributed to high demand from East Asia, particularly for supplies from Brazil, amidst challenges caused by widespread avian flu outbreaks. The FAO also indicates that global chicken meat performance registered a slight retreat of 1.22% in the first half of 2023. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects the 2023 United States (US) broiler production to reach 47.1 billion pounds (lbs), an increase of 200 million lbs due to a rise in slaughter numbers. The average price is expected to be USD 1.28/lbs, a decrease of USD 0.017 compared to the June estimates. The forecast also considers higher imports and consumption, along with steady exports.

The Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) reports a significant drop in chicken meat prices across various regions in Brazil. The domestic market has been facing an excessive meat supply, leading Brazilian industry players to adopt a price reduction strategy to ensure poultry product sales and avoid inventory buildup. Despite the usual increase in demand at the beginning of July, the high supply negatively impacted Brazilian chicken market prices. Poultry producers are grappling with the production adjustment challenge to match market fluctuations and find solutions to maintain profitability. Chicken prices remained stable in São Paulo in W28. Poultry on the farm was priced at USD 0.94/kg and wholesale chicken at USD 1.11/kg. Santa Catarina witnessed an increase of 8.90%, with prices reaching USD 0.97/kg, while Paraná saw stable prices at USD 0.93/kg. As of July 11, the frozen chicken saw a 2.42% increase, reaching USD 1.24/kg, while chilled chicken rose 3.18%, closing at USD 1.22/kg.

Lastly, white feathered industrial chicken prices in Vietnam continued to increase steadily on July 10. Farms in the Northern regions sold chickens weighing over 3.4kg/head for around USD 1.35/kg to USD 1.40/kg. In the Southern regions, the highest price for white chicken was approximately USD 1.02/kg to USD 1.10/kg. Colored feathered chickens in the Southeast region remained below USD 1.69/kg, while broiler chickens in Dong Nai were priced over USD 2.96/kg. The Minh Du chicken had a price of about USD 2.88/kg. The Thai Binh Poultry and Livestock Farms Association noted that the price of hybrid chicken sold at farms in Thai Binh had increased to nearly USD 2.96/kg compared to the first months of 2023. The Association anticipates that due to the abundant broiler chicken supply, prices would maintain a moderate level of about USD 2.96/kg, without experiencing significant spikes in the near future.