1. Weekly News 

Brazil

Harvest Progress Accelerates but Quality Concerns Surface

Brazil’s coffee harvest gained momentum in W36, with reports indicating that the crop is now past the halfway mark in several major producing regions, particularly Minas Gerais. While favorable weather has supported faster harvesting, concerns remain about bean quality, as uneven maturation from earlier rains has led to higher-than-expected defects in some batches. This dynamic is adding a layer of complexity for exporters, who are managing strong volumes but mixed quality profiles.

Exporters note that demand for higher-grade Arabica is outpacing availability, with buyers in the United States (US) and Europe offering premiums for cleaner lots. This divergence between supply abundance and quality issues could create short-term market distortions, especially if logistics bottlenecks resurface in ports during the peak export window.

Export Volumes Steady Amid Global Market Pressure

Brazil’s coffee exports held steady in Aug-25, with strong demand offsetting global bearish sentiment tied to rising inventories in consuming countries. According to trade data, Arabica shipments remain the bulk of export flows, though Robusta is also gaining traction as global roasters continue reformulating blends. Exporters suggest that while overall volumes are solid, Free-on-Board (FOB) values are under pressure as international buyers push for lower prices in line with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) futures.

Market analysts caution that this divergence between steady physical flows and weaker futures benchmarks could weigh on farmgate prices in the coming weeks. However, Brazilian producers with access to premium contracts, particularly certified and specialty Arabica, remain partially shielded from these global price headwinds.

Colombia

Exports Mixed as Weather and Costs Weigh on Supply

Colombian coffee exports were constrained by localized weather disruptions and persistently high production costs in W36. Reports from the Coffee Growers Federation (FNC) indicate that output remains under pressure due to irregular rainfall in key regions such as Antioquia and Huila. This has delayed harvesting and contributed to smaller bean sizes, complicating supply consistency for exporters.

Despite the challenges, export values have held up thanks to resilient demand from the US and European buyers seeking washed mild Arabica. However, higher labor and input costs are eating into farmer margins, raising concerns about medium-term production sustainability unless prices recover further at origin.

Domestic Prices Stay Firm Despite International Softness

While global Arabica futures have softened slightly, Colombian domestic prices remain relatively firm, supported by limited supply availability and ongoing demand for specialty coffees. Farmers continue to benefit from quality premiums, though many remain cautious about forward selling due to uncertainty around weather and future input costs.

Industry observers suggest that domestic firmness may persist in the near term, but volatility is likely if international prices slide further. Exporters are carefully managing contracts, balancing steady demand with the risks posed by higher production costs and climate unpredictability.

Vietnam

Harvest Outlook Stable but Supply Tensions Persist

Vietnam’s coffee sector is entering a period of relative stability as traders report balanced supply flows from the 2023/24 season, though concerns remain over tightening stocks. Domestic Robusta prices have stayed firm due to strong internal demand from exporters and roasters, even as global Robusta prices eased in recent sessions. This reflects the fact that available stocks in key producing provinces such as Đắk Lắk remain limited.

Industry experts indicate that many farmers are holding back inventories in anticipation of better prices later this year. This behavior is contributing to slower-than-usual sales, which could tighten short-term supply chains and sustain higher local prices.

Exporters Eye Rising Competition in Global Robusta Trade

While global Arabica futures have softened slightly, Colombian domestic prices remain relatively firm, supported by limited supply availability and ongoing demand for specialty coffees. Farmers continue to benefit from quality premiums, though many remain cautious about forward selling due to uncertainty around weather and future input costs.

Industry observers suggest that domestic firmness may persist in the near term, but volatility is likely if international prices slide further. Exporters are carefully managing contracts, balancing steady demand with the risks posed by higher production costs and climate unpredictability.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg) 

Yearly Change in Coffee Pricing Important  Exporters (W36 2024 to W36 2025)

Brazil

The domestic wholesale coffee price in Brazil  in W36 was USD 12.14 per kilogram (kg), down 0.25% week-on-week (WoW). This reflects easing pressure in the futures market as harvest volumes accelerate, boosting available supply. Robusta prices held relatively steady at USD 141.19-144.90 per 60-kg bag (BRL 760–780 per bag) in Espírito Santo, as exporters continue to secure contracts with international buyers. Market participants note that while volume availability has improved, quality differentials are becoming more pronounced, with higher premiums being paid for clean Arabica lots.

Looking ahead to W37, domestic Arabica prices are expected to remain under mild downward pressure as harvest progress adds supply to the market. However, any strong correction is likely to be limited by firm demand from exporters seeking high-grade beans. Robusta values should remain broadly stable, though logistical bottlenecks at ports could temporarily slow sales flows. 

Colombia

Colombian domestic coffee prices remained firm this week at USD 12.52/kg, up 0.72% WoW and 66.05% year-on-year (YoY). The firmness contrasts with the slight easing in international Arabica futures, suggesting local supply tightness as weather disruptions slowed harvest pace in Antioquia and Huila. Buyers continue to pay premiums for high-quality washed Arabica, with demand from exporters and specialty roasters supporting price stability.

For W37, Colombian domestic wholesale prices are projected to hold firm, provided international markets do not experience a sharp downturn. Local tightness in supply, coupled with persistent cost pressures for inputs and labor, should prevent any meaningful decline. However, if global futures weaken further, minor downward adjustments could surface, especially in regions with more consistent harvest flows. 

Vietnam

Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices dropped slightly in W36 at USD 4.46/kg, down 4.09% WoW. However, month-on-month (MoM) prices remain elevated, up 7.21%. Strong exporter demand and limited farmer selling kept the market tight, despite easing pressure in global Robusta futures. Many producers continue to hold back stocks in anticipation of higher prices later this year, which has sustained strong domestic wholesale values. Exporters report challenges in securing consistent volumes, adding to upward price pressure.

Looking ahead to W37, Vietnamese Robusta prices are expected to remain firm. Supply-side tightness will continue to underpin values, with only limited downside risk unless international Robusta benchmarks experience sharper corrections. Farmers’ reluctance to release inventories will likely keep the domestic market supported through the near term.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Secure High-Quality Arabica Lots Before Further Differentiation

With Brazil’s Arabica harvest progressing and premiums emerging for clean, high-quality lots, exporters and roasters should move quickly to secure top-grade beans before quality differentiation widens. This ensures a steady flow of export-ready coffee and mitigates the risk of paying steeper premiums later in the season.

Lock in Supply Contracts to Hedge Against Tightness

Colombia’s domestic wholesale prices remain firm due to weather-related supply constraints and persistent demand from exporters. Industry players should consider forward contracts with local suppliers to secure volumes at current price levels, reducing exposure to potential upward adjustments if supply constraints persist in key producing regions.

Build Strategic Inventories Ahead of Seasonal Supply Pressure

Vietnam’s Robusta market remains elevated due to limited farmer selling and strong exporter demand. Importers and traders should strategically build inventories now, despite high prices, to hedge against further upward movement if farmers continue to hold back stocks. Early stockpiling also reduces dependency on spot market volatility in the coming months.

Sources: Tridge, International Coffee Organization (ICO), Cecafé (Brazil Coffee Exporters Council), Federación Nacional de Cafeteros (FNC), Reuters Commodities News, Hellenic Shipping News, Vesper Reports