January 2024 Outlook Report: Fruits & Vegetables

Apples: The US saw a 1% YoY increase in total fresh fruit exports, valued at USD 869.1 million. Washington state's favorable growing conditions are expected to boost apple output, with increased exports to Mexico and India positively reflecting on price stability. China's fresh apple output is expected to increase, with greater yields in key provinces offsetting losses. Wholesale prices of Fuji apples rose in December, but Tridge expects a downward trend post-festive season. European Union (EU) traders face export disruptions from shipping bans in the Red Sea, affecting traders from Poland, Italy, and other European countries and putting pressure on fresh apple prices. India's fresh apple production remains stable, with imports expected to increase due to strong consumer demand.

Bananas: Latin American banana sectors are concerned about European retailers' plans to reduce banana prices, citing currency strength and lower freight charges. At the same time, contract signing delays for 2024 shipments in Ecuador have led to price uncertainties. Bananas are the most significant Central American produce imported into the United States (US), valued at USD 1.8 billion. Canary bananas face anticipated shortages, leading to a delicate pricing balance. Ecuador and China are negotiating a free trade deal, which could boost Ecuador's exports to China by 30% in the first three years, or approximately USD 2 billion above present levels.

Tomatoes: Tomato prices in India surged in Nov-23 due to adverse weather conditions affecting harvests in Karnataka and Maharashtra. China's tomato production regions saw a 23% YoY increase in exports, but meteorological challenges caused a surge in wholesale prices in early Jan-24. Poland experienced a 3% decline in vegetables and a 7% drop in potato harvests, but tomato production remained stable. Poland's tomato imports increased by 19.92% YoY, leading to an increase in wholesale prices.

Durian: Thailand's strategic decision to construct a rail network aligns with its objective to enhance agricultural exports and streamline logistical operations. At the same time, the exploration of new markets underscores the competitiveness it faces in the Chinese fruit market, with challenges posed by nations such as Vietnam and the Philippines. The impact of adverse weather on Thai and Ri6 durian prices highlights the susceptibility of agricultural production to environmental conditions. On the other hand, the observed durian price trends in China, influenced by seasonal variations and supply dynamics from Thailand and Vietnam, reveal the market's responsiveness to external factors.

Avocado: In Mexico, Hass avocado prices have declined over the last two weeks of Dec-23 after remaining stable between the 2.50 per kilogram(kg) and 3.50/kg price range since Aug-23. The price reduction is due to the droughts in Mexico affecting staple foods like corn and avocados. In Peru, the early season for avocados is set to kick off two weeks ahead of the typical schedule due to optimal conditions. Thus, prices have started to decline, driven by the announced early crop that promises to flood the Peruvian wholesale market.

Mango: Mango prices are exhibiting diverse trends in Brazil and Spain. In Brazil, Tommy Atkins mango prices rebounded by 28% week-on-week (WoW) in mid-Dec-23, driven by a reduction in supply from the São Francisco Valley towards the end of the year. In Spain, Tommy Atkins mango prices experienced a significant surge, reaching USD 4.13/kg in the third week of Dec-23, marking a 16% MoM increase, driven by harvest reductions caused by severe drought, leading to the premature conclusion of the 2022/23 season in key production areas.

Onion: Onion markets display divergent patterns across regions. In India, red onion prices significantly declined for the second time in 2023, reaching USD 0.20/kg in the first week of Jan-24, marking a substantial 35% MoM decrease. This drop, reminiscent of the low prices in 2023 before the Nov-23 climb, is attributed to the government-imposed onion export ban and reduced maximum allowable volume of wheat stocks enacted in response to escalating food prices. Conversely, onion prices in the US have demonstrated a relatively consistent and stable trend since the notable price reduction in the third week of Oct-23. Peruvian red onion prices have also receded from historic peaks, influenced by various market factors. In South Africa, the price of yellow onions continued its downward trend, with a moderate recovery by the second week of Dec-23. The South African onion industry is still contending with the aftermath of previous oversupply challenges, resulting in notable fluctuations in onion prices.