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May Outlook Report - Fruits and Vegs
Fresh Banana
Fruits
Peru
Fresh Durian
India
Bojan Mijatovic, Juan Carlos
Published Apr 27, 2023
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•An ample supply of fresh apples in the US market will continue to drive prices down. At the same time, in China, increased demand and dynamic trade are expected to maintain a bullish sentiment in May. EU markets are balancing between decreased apple stocks and increased imports from Chile and New Zealand, while Poland will try to take advantage of access to the Belarusian market.
•The wholesale banana prices in major import markets such as China and Germany continue to rise, powered by demand and volatile supply for EU countries. Due to adverse weather, the lower quality of fresh bananas in Ecuador will be the main price driver in May. Improved supply and lower transportation costs will make Costa Rican bananas more competitive, while the price is expected to decrease further in May, according to Tridge's predictions.
•South African plums are entering the final harvest period, and specific difficulties like increased packaging costs and the weakened Rand are affecting the overall exports. Nevertheless, the price will remain stable, driven by improved demand from the US. A rather cold spring in China has affected the domestic market, while Chilean plums are improving volumes after delays in April. Tridge forecasts a negative price trend of fresh plums in May for China.
•Logistic routes between Thailand and China have been upgraded, reducing transit time for fresh durians from five to three days. This will influence trade growth, improve the quality of fruits delivered and ultimately increase prices in May in Thailand due to faster in-and-out durian movements. On the other hand, China is diversifying imports, and improved durian quantities will lead to lower prices in the upcoming period, according to Tridge's forecast. Taiwan market is expected to show the most substantial price growth due to almost non-existing domestic production and growing demand.
•US and Mexican avocado prices are expected to start climbing after maintaining low values all through 2023, supported by large production volumes in both countries, and rising demand is driven by Mexican festivities in the US. Prices, however, are expected to start taking an upward trend from mid-May when less availability is expected from domestic US supply. In South Africa, prices have started to stabilize after seeing an oversupply in the market, which seems to be over, and prices have started to increase to normal export season levels.
•While most South American mango suppliers are out of season, Colombia has entered the peak availability for Tommy Atkins mangoes, registering low prices that will remain the same all through May. Mangoes in Spain were trending down at very low prices due to large volumes coming from Andalusia and Malaga until April when prices started to increase slightly and stabilize. However, Spanish mango prices are likely to start increasing in May and furthermore in June as supply will be lower in volume and imports from other countries will increase.
•Due to the unprecedented global shortage, particularly in all of Europe and Central Asia, onion prices have skyrocketed in most main supply markets. In the Netherlands, the main European supplier, onion prices reached a record high of USD 0.73/kg. However, in India, prices have kept decreasing due to an oversupply, despite the government’s efforts to purchase local supplies. While in Indonesia, prices for red onions in Indonesia have started to increase again as they did at the beginning of the year as they haven’t been able to supply the local market due to the strong demand for onions in the region.
•The wholesale banana prices in major import markets such as China and Germany continue to rise, powered by demand and volatile supply for EU countries. Due to adverse weather, the lower quality of fresh bananas in Ecuador will be the main price driver in May. Improved supply and lower transportation costs will make Costa Rican bananas more competitive, while the price is expected to decrease further in May, according to Tridge's predictions.
•South African plums are entering the final harvest period, and specific difficulties like increased packaging costs and the weakened Rand are affecting the overall exports. Nevertheless, the price will remain stable, driven by improved demand from the US. A rather cold spring in China has affected the domestic market, while Chilean plums are improving volumes after delays in April. Tridge forecasts a negative price trend of fresh plums in May for China.
•Logistic routes between Thailand and China have been upgraded, reducing transit time for fresh durians from five to three days. This will influence trade growth, improve the quality of fruits delivered and ultimately increase prices in May in Thailand due to faster in-and-out durian movements. On the other hand, China is diversifying imports, and improved durian quantities will lead to lower prices in the upcoming period, according to Tridge's forecast. Taiwan market is expected to show the most substantial price growth due to almost non-existing domestic production and growing demand.
•US and Mexican avocado prices are expected to start climbing after maintaining low values all through 2023, supported by large production volumes in both countries, and rising demand is driven by Mexican festivities in the US. Prices, however, are expected to start taking an upward trend from mid-May when less availability is expected from domestic US supply. In South Africa, prices have started to stabilize after seeing an oversupply in the market, which seems to be over, and prices have started to increase to normal export season levels.
•While most South American mango suppliers are out of season, Colombia has entered the peak availability for Tommy Atkins mangoes, registering low prices that will remain the same all through May. Mangoes in Spain were trending down at very low prices due to large volumes coming from Andalusia and Malaga until April when prices started to increase slightly and stabilize. However, Spanish mango prices are likely to start increasing in May and furthermore in June as supply will be lower in volume and imports from other countries will increase.
•Due to the unprecedented global shortage, particularly in all of Europe and Central Asia, onion prices have skyrocketed in most main supply markets. In the Netherlands, the main European supplier, onion prices reached a record high of USD 0.73/kg. However, in India, prices have kept decreasing due to an oversupply, despite the government’s efforts to purchase local supplies. While in Indonesia, prices for red onions in Indonesia have started to increase again as they did at the beginning of the year as they haven’t been able to supply the local market due to the strong demand for onions in the region.
Table of contents
Part I: Key Indicators
Part II: Fruit and Vegetable
Apple
Banana
Plums
Durian
Avocado
Mango
Onion
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