October Outlook: Nuts

- The peanut harvest has started in the Northern Hemisphere, delayed by late rains in many production areas. In India, stable peanut prices were observed, with adverse weather affecting early-planted peanuts but expectations of higher yields from late-planted crops. Brazil experienced a 10% price increase driven by export demand, particularly from Russia, but faces potential price stabilization or decrease as Northern Hemisphere harvests begin. China saw a 16% price surge due to heavy rains during harvest and increased holiday demand, although the spike may be temporary due to expected post-holiday market dynamics and the ongoing harvest.
- The almond harvest has commenced in the Northern Hemisphere. In the US, the world's top producer, the harvest is progressing slower than usual, while in Spain, the second-largest producer, it's ahead of schedule. There are emerging concerns about the quality of this year's almonds in both nations. In the US early indications show higher insect damage and, particularly in the southern regions, increased mold presence. Spain's blistering summer has adversely affected nut fill, leading to yields that are significantly lower than anticipated.
- Walnut prices are facing a decline due to the ongoing harvest from the Northern Hemisphere. Europe's major walnut producers are indicating lower-than-anticipated yields and issues with quality. However, the US is set to offset this with an abundant crop. As a result, there will be a significant supply of lower-quality walnuts in the market. Meanwhile, the US, seeing a quality improvement from the previous year, will dominate the high-quality walnut market. Stockpiles from Chile, known for their high-quality walnuts, are diminishing fast due to high demand. The considerable price difference between top-quality and lower-quality walnuts is likely to persist for the majority of the season.
- In Italy, hazelnut prices have been declining due to harvest pressure, despite yields in most production areas falling short of expectations due to hot and dry conditions, particularly in central Italy and the Piedmont region. Prices in Türkiye, the world's leading hazelnut producer, have surged 30% MoM due to low yields and insect damage. However, speculation has driven prices higher and the increase is likely overdone. While prices in Türkiye are expected to remain high in the short term, the global hazelnut market may rebalance over the medium term. Turkish prices are likely to lead importers to consider alternatives like Georgia and Azerbaijan.