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September Outlook Report: Fruit and Veg
Fresh Banana
Fruits
Peru
Fresh Durian
China
Bojan Mijatovic, Juan Carlos
Published Sep 1, 2023
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- The global apple market exhibits diverse dynamics driven by weather, production changes, competition, and demand variations. While some regions are poised for growth and price stability, others face challenges from weather and competitive pressures. The United States (US) fresh apple prices will experience severe fluctuations from favorable outcomes of CY 2023, while on the other side, India's lower volumes will have the opposite effect. Despite China's insufficient supply of fresh apples, increased imports will favor positive price growth. Poland, a major European Union (EU) apple producer, expects decreased output compared to the previous year, which may reflect on prices in the upcoming period.
- Ecuador's banana industry faces climate-related challenges, impacting production. Nonetheless, export growth, particularly in the EU market, showcases resilience and increases prices. The US banana market witnessed price fluctuations due to shifts in supply and demand. While decreased demand caused a price drop, changes in sourcing countries and market preferences drive adjustments. The anticipated recovery in demand suggests a more favorable price outlook for fresh bananas in the coming months. Congestion of the Panama Canal and adverse weather coupled with increased demand will drive prices up in China, while the European market is expected to enter a stable period.
- A steady supply of fresh bell peppers in the US and Türkiye backed up a stable price trend in August, which will continue in September. On the other side, adverse weather is hampering Spain’s vegetable production, while at the same time, increased competition from other EU-producing countries is pressuring prices down. China's growing demand for Vietnamese pepper, driven by eased restrictions and favorable pricing, underscores its significance as a major export market.
- Regarding the price movement of fresh durian, there are mixed outcomes in major Asian markets. China is entering a stable price period driven by balanced supply from Thailand and Vietnam, despite remarks on the phytosanitary system in Vietnam. Thailand exploits lower logistic costs and increased yields of durians from Eastern regions to cement its position in China and Taiwan further. Prices of fresh Durian in Taiwan continue to decline, driven by increased supply and restrained demand.
- The Mexican avocado market has seen a recent price shift, with prices hitting a high in July but decreasing to USD 2.35/kg in August. Meanwhile, South African avocado prices experienced a significant dip to USD 1.5/kg in August, altering the recovery narrative. These fluctuations reflect seasonal and supply dynamics, impacting two key avocado markets. In Mexico, the arrival of a larger harvest led to price declines in August, while in South Africa, a recovery from an oversupply situation earlier in the year is being closely monitored.
- Mango markets worldwide are experiencing significant price fluctuations. In the US, an influx of high-quality fruit from Mexico has kept prices steady at USD 1.69/kg through August. Conversely, India is grappling with soaring mango costs, reaching USD 1.34/kg in August, driven by adverse weather conditions and reduced yields. Meanwhile, Spain witnessed a 34% price drop in Spanish Tommy Atkins mangoes, currently priced at USD 2.19/kg. The decline can be attributed to increased local supply with the start of the harvest season, although overall supply remains lower due to droughts.
- The global onion market is experiencing significant price fluctuations in August. In India, the wholesale price of red onions has surged by 50% MoM, prompting the government to impose a 40% export duty to stabilize the market. Peruvian red onions, driven by international demand and supply shortages, reached a historic high of USD 1.78/kg before slightly stabilizing. After a peak in May, South African yellow onion prices have gradually declined, dropping by 40% in the monthly average. Conversely, Indonesian onion prices have decreased due to increased imports despite remaining lower than the previous year's severe shortage.
- Ecuador's banana industry faces climate-related challenges, impacting production. Nonetheless, export growth, particularly in the EU market, showcases resilience and increases prices. The US banana market witnessed price fluctuations due to shifts in supply and demand. While decreased demand caused a price drop, changes in sourcing countries and market preferences drive adjustments. The anticipated recovery in demand suggests a more favorable price outlook for fresh bananas in the coming months. Congestion of the Panama Canal and adverse weather coupled with increased demand will drive prices up in China, while the European market is expected to enter a stable period.
- A steady supply of fresh bell peppers in the US and Türkiye backed up a stable price trend in August, which will continue in September. On the other side, adverse weather is hampering Spain’s vegetable production, while at the same time, increased competition from other EU-producing countries is pressuring prices down. China's growing demand for Vietnamese pepper, driven by eased restrictions and favorable pricing, underscores its significance as a major export market.
- Regarding the price movement of fresh durian, there are mixed outcomes in major Asian markets. China is entering a stable price period driven by balanced supply from Thailand and Vietnam, despite remarks on the phytosanitary system in Vietnam. Thailand exploits lower logistic costs and increased yields of durians from Eastern regions to cement its position in China and Taiwan further. Prices of fresh Durian in Taiwan continue to decline, driven by increased supply and restrained demand.
- The Mexican avocado market has seen a recent price shift, with prices hitting a high in July but decreasing to USD 2.35/kg in August. Meanwhile, South African avocado prices experienced a significant dip to USD 1.5/kg in August, altering the recovery narrative. These fluctuations reflect seasonal and supply dynamics, impacting two key avocado markets. In Mexico, the arrival of a larger harvest led to price declines in August, while in South Africa, a recovery from an oversupply situation earlier in the year is being closely monitored.
- Mango markets worldwide are experiencing significant price fluctuations. In the US, an influx of high-quality fruit from Mexico has kept prices steady at USD 1.69/kg through August. Conversely, India is grappling with soaring mango costs, reaching USD 1.34/kg in August, driven by adverse weather conditions and reduced yields. Meanwhile, Spain witnessed a 34% price drop in Spanish Tommy Atkins mangoes, currently priced at USD 2.19/kg. The decline can be attributed to increased local supply with the start of the harvest season, although overall supply remains lower due to droughts.
- The global onion market is experiencing significant price fluctuations in August. In India, the wholesale price of red onions has surged by 50% MoM, prompting the government to impose a 40% export duty to stabilize the market. Peruvian red onions, driven by international demand and supply shortages, reached a historic high of USD 1.78/kg before slightly stabilizing. After a peak in May, South African yellow onion prices have gradually declined, dropping by 40% in the monthly average. Conversely, Indonesian onion prices have decreased due to increased imports despite remaining lower than the previous year's severe shortage.
Table of contents
- Part I: Key Indicators
- Part II: Fruit and Vegetable
- Apple
- Banana
- Peppers
- Durian
- Avocado
- Mango
- Onion
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