W15 Maize (Corn) Update:Paraná’s Second Corn Harvest Suffers Amid Dry Weather, Argentina Reduced 2024 Corn Harvest Forecast

USDA Corn Planting Progress in Line with Five-Year Average

The latest United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) weekly crop monitoring report indicates that as of W15, corn planting in the United States (US) reached 3% of the projected area, consistent with 2023's progress and the five-year average. he second-largest corn producer, Illinois has planted 2%, while Tennessee leads with 59%.

Argentinian Corn Harvest Progresses Amid Challenges

Data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange revealed that by April 5, Argentinian corn had been harvested on 794.8 thousand hectares (ha), representing 11.1% of the planned area, a 5.4% increase week-on-week (WoW). During this period, 7.36 thousand metric tons (mt) of grain were harvested, with an average yield of 9.26 mt/ha, marking a notably high figure for the initial stage of the campaign. However, there has been a slight deterioration in crop condition, with the percentage of plants rated as good to excellent declining to 17% from the previous week's 22%. Meanwhile, plants in normal condition account for 51%, down from 53%, and those in poor condition make up 32%, up from 25%. Moreover, an uptick in leaf beetle pests and irregular rainfall in some regions have adversely affected crop conditions. In response to these developments, exchange experts reduced the forecast for Argentina's corn harvest by 4.5 million metric tons (mmt), with the possibility of further adjustments in the future.

Dry Weather in Brazil's Paraná Region Leads to Deterioration of Second Harvest Corn Crops

According to the Department of Rural Economy (Deral), Brazil's Paraná second harvest corn crops for the 2023/24 season deteriorated significantly in W15 due to dry weather in one of Brazil's major cereal-producing regions. According to the bulletin, the proportion of crops rated as poor increased to 8% of the total area, up from just 2% in the previous week. Additionally, the percentage of crops rated as good decreased to 72%, down from 81% in W14, while those in average condition increased to 20%, compared to 17% previously. Deral specialists highlighted the significant worsening of the harvest over the last 15 days, attributing it to a combination of lack of rain and intense heat in the field, as reported by Reuters.

Thailand Forecasts 5.2% Increase in Corn Imports for Feed in 2024

Thailand's corn imports for feed are projected to increase by 5.2% year-on-year (YoY) to 1.4 mmt in 2024, with the majority sourced from Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos. The import surge is due to rising demand for feed for increased pig and broiler production. Corn from neighboring countries is preferred due to lower costs facilitated by exemption from import tariffs and reduced transportation expenses. From Jan-24 to Feb-24, Thailand imported 240 thousand mt of corn, marking a 31.73% YoY increase, valued at USD 62.57 million, with Myanmar contributing 40.5% of the imported corn.

China Forecasts Record Corn Harvest Amid High Domestic Prices

Domestic corn prices in China remain notably higher than global prices despite government efforts to reduce corn cultivation. The Ministry of Agriculture forecasts a record corn harvest of 296 mmt in 2024, a 2.4% YoY increase, marking the fourth consecutive year of record grain production. However, it remains uncertain whether the surge in domestic production will substantially curb imports. The persistently elevated domestic prices may incentivize Chinese buyers to prioritize imports, even with sufficient domestic supply.