W50 Soybean Update: Brazil's 2023/24 Soybean Harvest Forecasted at 160 mmt, While India Aims for 12 mmt

India Anticipates 12 MMT Soybean Harvest in 2023/24 Amid El Niño Uncertainties

India's soybean production is anticipated to reach 12 million metric tons (mmt), harvested from 12.8 million hectares (ha), according to the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The estimate considers the potential impacts of El Niño conditions, with experts suggesting a more significant impact in 2024 that could affect various crops, including oilseeds. This forecast falls short of the 12.4 mmt harvested in the 2022/23 marketing year (MY) despite uncertainties. Additionally, soybean stocks are projected to end higher at 1.4 mmt. This increase is attributed to farmers holding onto soybeans in anticipation of favorable pricing. The forecasted crush for this period is approximately 9.8 mmt, representing a 5% decrease compared to the previous marketing year.

Brazil Forecasts 160 MMT Soybean Harvest for 2023/24 Despite Regional Challenges

Brazil's soybean harvest for the 2023/24 MY is forecasted at 160 mmt, a slight decrease from the previous forecast due to the effects of the drought in the center-north of the country. Despite that, the overall growth is expected to be 3.5% compared to the previous season, with a 2.9% increase in the planted area. A notable recovery in soybean harvest is anticipated in Rio Grande do Sul, with a forecasted 73.6% year-on-year (YoY) jump to 22.6 mmt. Mato Grosso may experience a 6.3% YoY drop to 42.7 mmt due to dry and hot weather at the beginning of the cycle.

Soybean Planting in Brazil's Mato Grosso Reaches 99.96%

Soybean planting in Brazil's Mato Grosso for the 2023/24 harvest has reached 99.96% of the planned area in W50, according to the Mato-Grossense Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA). This marks a slight increase from the previous week's 99.57% and a minor delay of 0.04% compared to the same period in the 2022/23 harvest when sowing was already complete. The overall planting is slightly behind the five-year average of 99.99%, showing a delay of 0.03%. Planting is yet to be completed in the center-south (99.96%) and northeast (99.82%) regions.

Argentina's 2023/24 Soybean Planting Surges to 59.5% of Projected Area

Argentina's 2023/24 soybean planting reached 59.5% of the projected 17.3 million ha, marking a 7.8% increase week-on-week (WoW). The progress is 9% ahead from the same period in the 2022/23 season. The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange reported that 30% of the crop is in good or excellent condition, down from 35% the previous week, while the portion in normal condition increased from 63% to 66%. The portion in regular or poor condition increased from 2% to 4%.

US Soybean Exports for 2023/24 Season Declined 46% MoM

In the week ending December 7, the US exported 1.084 mmt of the 2023/24 soybean crop, including cancellations. This volume reflects a 23% WoW decrease and a 46% month-on-month (MoM) decline. The main buyers in this period include China, Germany, the Netherlands, Thailand, and Turkey. Notably, cancellations were made by undisclosed destinations, Pakistan, and Japan.