1. Weekly News

Brazil

Brazil's Rice Exports Surged 34% YoY in Jan-25

In Jan-25, Brazil’s rice exports surged while imports declined compared to the same month in 2024. The country exported 112.5 thousand metric tons (mt) of rice, marking a 34% year-on-year (YoY) increase in volume and a 35% YoY rise in value, generating USD 35.9 million in revenue. Key export destinations included Senegal, Gambia, and the United States (US). However, Mexico, previously a major buyer, ceased purchases due to the removal of tariff exemptions. Meanwhile, rice imports fell by 43% YoY in volume and 54% YoY in value.

Japan

Japan's Retail Rice Prices Increased 90% YoY in Feb-25

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries, Japan's average retail rice price surged in the past year. In the first week of Feb-25, the market price for 5 kilograms (kg) of rice reached USD 25.22, reflecting a 90% YoY increase from USD 13.17 on Feb-24. The steady rise in rice prices stems from a poor harvest caused by natural disasters and extreme heat. However, the Ministry warns that higher prices have reduced rice sales, which may lead to a supply surplus by Mar-25, potentially driving prices downward.

Paraguay

Paraguay’s 2025 Rice Harvest Begins with Strong Yields and Market Optimism

Paraguay launched its 2025 rice harvest in Villa Franca, Ñeembucú, highlighting the sector’s achievements and reaffirming its commitment to no new rice taxes during the current administration. The president of the Rice Growers Federation (FEPARROZ) reported higher yields and improved grain quality, surpassing the 2024 season. Favorable weather conditions contributed to the sector’s recovery after excessive rainfall and low sunshine hampered production last year. The Minister of Industry and Trade estimated the rice sector’s annual investment of USD 400 million, emphasizing agriculture’s vital role in economic competitiveness. While market prices remain favorable, analysts anticipate a slight downward trend, though high productivity will offset potential price fluctuations.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka Amends Rice Marketing Board Act to Curb Hoarding and Market Manipulation

On February 12, the Sri Lankan government announced plans to amend the Rice Marketing Board Act No. 14 of 1971 to introduce a licensing system to monitor and prevent irregular hoarding of rice and paddy. Despite being in force for over 50 years, the Act has remained unchanged and lacks provisions to address modern market challenges. The amendments will enhance transparency, curb market manipulation by traders and large millers, prevent artificial shortages and price manipulation, and ensure stable access to essential food supplies.

Vietnam

Vietnam Plans to Boost Rice Exports in 2025 with 7.54 MMT Target

Vietnam's Mekong Delta region is projected to plant 3.778 million hectares (ha) of rice in 2025, with an average yield of 6.34 mt/ha, resulting in a total commercial rice output of 15.085 million metric tons (mmt). Of this figure, 8.9 mmt will supply the domestic market and seeds, while 7.542 mmt will be allocated for export. The Agriculture Minister urged the Ministry of Industry and Trade to enhance rice exports and expand market access to ensure full export of surplus rice. Key markets such as the Philippines and Indonesia will remain a priority, but new markets will be explored in the European Union (EU), Japan, South Korea, and the Middle East.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W8 2024 to W8 2025)

India

In W8, India's wholesale rice prices rose 1.61% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 0.63/kg, primarily due to government procurement and stockpiling, which tightened domestic availability, as total reserves reached 67.6 mmt, far exceeding targets. Moreover, recent export policy adjustments, including the lifting of restrictions on non-basmati white rice in Sep-24, increased export activity. Key importers of Indian basmati rice include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the US. Meanwhile, Indonesia has also planned large-scale rice imports from India in 2025, further driving demand.

Vietnam

In W8, Vietnamese rice prices dropped by 4.76% WoW and 9.09% month-on-month (MoM) to USD 0.60/kg. The decline has persisted since Dec-24 due to overstock pressure and the early harvest of the main crop. Vietnamese rice remains cheaper than Thai and Pakistani rice, enhancing its competitiveness. However, key buyers like the Philippines and Indonesia are delaying purchases, holding existing inventories, and anticipating further price declines. Despite these challenges, the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) Vice President expects the market to recover soon. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), Vietnam exported 500 thousand mt of rice in Jan-25, generating USD 308 million. While export volume increased slightly, export value declined notably compared to Jan-24.

United States

US rice prices fell 2.5% YoY to USD 0.78/kg in W8. The decline is primarily due to higher domestic supply from increased production and record imports. The US rice output for the 2024/25 season rose 2% YoY to 222.1 million hundredweight (cwt), driven by a 12% increase in long-grain rice production, while imports, particularly from Thailand, reached a record 47 million cwt, boosting domestic availability. Weaker export demand amid heightened competition from South American and Asian suppliers pressured prices as buyers opted for cheaper alternatives. Moreover, global rice price softening following large harvests and India's lifting of export restrictions further contributed to the price decline.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify Export Markets to Reduce Dependency on Key Buyers

With rice export delays from major buyers like the Philippines and Indonesia, Vietnam should expand market access to new destinations such as the EU, Japan, and the Middle East. Vietnamese exporters should leverage trade agreements like the EVFTA (EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement) to gain preferential tariffs and improve logistics efficiency to compete with Thai and Pakistani rice. Strengthening direct trade relations and signing long-term supply contracts with retailers and food processors in these regions can stabilize export volumes and minimize overstock risks.

Strengthen Domestic Supply Chain Monitoring

Sri Lanka's move to amend the Rice Marketing Board Act highlights the importance of regulating stockpiling practices to prevent artificial shortages and price spikes. Other rice-producing countries, including India and Vietnam, should implement similar licensing systems to track rice inventory levels and penalize hoarding by traders and millers. Establishing digital tracking systems and mandatory reporting mechanisms for large-scale stockholders will enhance transparency, ensuring stable rice prices and consistent market supply.

Enhance Value-Added Processing and Branding for Higher Export Revenue

Countries like the US, Vietnam, and Paraguay should invest in quality certification programs, sustainable farming practices, and targeted branding strategies to position their rice as a premium product. Introducing specialized rice varieties, such as organic, low-GI, or fortified rice, can attract health-conscious consumers in high-income markets like Japan, South Korea, and the EU. Moreover, promoting geographical indications and origin labeling can further differentiate products and increase export competitiveness.

Sources: Tridge, Foodmate, Reuters, UkrAgroConsult, USDA