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The Turkish Hazelnut Market: Prospects in 2023/24 and Beyond
Hazelnut Kernel
Theo Venter
Published Nov 24, 2023
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Türkiye's Hazelnut Industry: Türkiye traditionally produces up to two-thirds of global hazelnuts. Production and price dynamics in Türkiye often dictate international price trends. However, emerging hazelnut producers and Türkiye’s stagnating production are causing it to lose market share in global production and its dominance on global price movements.
The Need for Modernization: Türkiye’s hazelnut industry grapples with the hurdles of outdated traditional practices in smaller orchards, hindering the adoption of modern techniques. The industry needs to modernize to remain profitable and sustainable, but little progress has been made.
Supply in 2023/24: Türkiye’s 2023 hazelnut crop of 650,000 metric tons (mt) is far short of initial expectations. However, due to the large carryover from the 2022/23 MY, the total supply is estimated at 860,000 mt. This could still be considered sufficient supply to cover demand, but hazelnut inventories could drop significantly towards the end of the 2023/24 Marketing Year (MY).
Demand in 2023/24: Turkish hazelnut exports are expected to rebound by 6 to 8% in 2023/24, reaching around 620,000 mt, driven by a potential increase in European demand, recovering economies, and the continued focus on healthy snacking. However, this is still below more successful export years, as Türkiye faces more intense competition.
Outlook for 2023/24: Lower production is leading to a rebalance of supply and demand, both domestically and globally. Prices increased significantly since it became apparent that the crop will fall short of initial expectations. However, this increase appears overdone, and prices could soften towards the end of 2023. Thereafter, prices are expected to enter a bullish trend early in 2024.
Stagnating Production: Türkiye's hazelnut production could stagnate with minimal growth in hazelnut areas and unchanged yields. Despite the potential for increased productivity through modern practices, socio-economic constraints and small orchard sizes impede widespread adoption. Türkiye's hazelnut industry faces several challenges, including aging trees, orchard neglect, low profitability, and climate change.
Loss of Market Share: Türkiye's historic dominance in the global hazelnut market is challenged by rising producers, with its market share continuing to decrease, emphasizing the need for modernization and adapting to consumer demand.
The Need for Modernization: Türkiye’s hazelnut industry grapples with the hurdles of outdated traditional practices in smaller orchards, hindering the adoption of modern techniques. The industry needs to modernize to remain profitable and sustainable, but little progress has been made.
Supply in 2023/24: Türkiye’s 2023 hazelnut crop of 650,000 metric tons (mt) is far short of initial expectations. However, due to the large carryover from the 2022/23 MY, the total supply is estimated at 860,000 mt. This could still be considered sufficient supply to cover demand, but hazelnut inventories could drop significantly towards the end of the 2023/24 Marketing Year (MY).
Demand in 2023/24: Turkish hazelnut exports are expected to rebound by 6 to 8% in 2023/24, reaching around 620,000 mt, driven by a potential increase in European demand, recovering economies, and the continued focus on healthy snacking. However, this is still below more successful export years, as Türkiye faces more intense competition.
Outlook for 2023/24: Lower production is leading to a rebalance of supply and demand, both domestically and globally. Prices increased significantly since it became apparent that the crop will fall short of initial expectations. However, this increase appears overdone, and prices could soften towards the end of 2023. Thereafter, prices are expected to enter a bullish trend early in 2024.
Stagnating Production: Türkiye's hazelnut production could stagnate with minimal growth in hazelnut areas and unchanged yields. Despite the potential for increased productivity through modern practices, socio-economic constraints and small orchard sizes impede widespread adoption. Türkiye's hazelnut industry faces several challenges, including aging trees, orchard neglect, low profitability, and climate change.
Loss of Market Share: Türkiye's historic dominance in the global hazelnut market is challenged by rising producers, with its market share continuing to decrease, emphasizing the need for modernization and adapting to consumer demand.
Table of contents
Key Takeaways
Part I - The Turkish Hazelnut Market
- Türkiye’s Hazelnut Landscape
- The Need for Modernization and Transformation
- Hazelnut Areas
Part II - Hazelnut Supply and Demand in 2023/24
- Production and Total Supply
- Export Demand
- Domestic Consumption
- Rebalancing of Supply and Demand in 2023/24
- Hazelnut Price Drivers
- Hazelnut Price Outlook
Part III - Long-Term Challenges and Opportunities
- Stagnation in Türkiye’s Hazelnut Production
- Challenges to Future Production
- Competition from Emerging Growers
- European Demand for Nuts
Part IV - Tridge Solutions
- Tridge Customized Solutions
- Tridge's Approach to Connecting with Local Suppliers
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