W11 Olive and Olive Oil Update: New Zealand Olive Oil Industry Eyes Rebound, Global Vegetable Oil Outlook Revised

New Zealand Olive Oil Producers Eye a Rebound After Consecutive Production Declines

New Zealand's olive oil industry is poised for its olive harvest season, with growers cautiously optimistic about a potential rebound following two consecutive years of production decline. Olive oil production in New Zealand witnessed a downward trend in 2023, reaching 125 thousand liters, compared to 180 thousand liters in 2022. This follows bumper crop years in 2020 and 2021, with production volumes of 200 thousand liters and 270 thousand liters, respectively. The decline in production is due to unfavorable weather conditions. Dec-23 data from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) revealed above-average rainfall in some olive-growing regions, while others experienced below-normal levels. Additionally, heavy rainfall during the 2023 harvest, the country's eighth wettest on record, significantly impacted yields.

While acknowledging the natural alternate bearing cycle of olive trees potentially leading to lower yields in some regions, particularly the South Island, industry representatives are cautiously optimistic about the upcoming season. This optimism stems from the absence of extreme rainfall events as predicted by NIWA, in contrast to the challenging conditions experienced in 2023. Despite cautious optimism, the final harvest outcome remains uncertain. Previous forecasts of high yields in Mar-22 were ultimately revised downward due to unforeseen weather events during the harvest period.

Global Vegetable Oil Production Outlook Revised, Increased Volumes for Most Oils, Except Olive Oil

The latest report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Feb-24 provides a revised outlook for global vegetable oil production in the 2023/24 marketing year (MY). The global vegetable oil production outlook for the 2023/24 MY suggests a modest increase compared to the previous year. While upward revisions were made for several major oils, olive oil production projections were adjusted downward. Global vegetable oil production is projected to reach 222.85 million metric tons (mmt) in 2023/24 MY, representing a growth of 2.3% year-on-year (YoY) compared to the previous year's 217.81 mmt.

The USDA revised its production estimates upward for several key oils, including rapeseed oil (increased to 33.79 mmt), coconut oil (3.77 mmt), cottonseed oil (4.95 mmt), and sunflower oil (21.66 mmt). In contrast to the upward revisions for other oils, the USDA lowered its forecast for olive oil production from 2.31 mmt to 2.29 mmt.