W11: Weekly Maize (Corn) Update
United States
The US Begins Technical Consultations With Mexico on Transgenic Corn (Mar 15)
The US has initiated technical consultations with Mexico due to Mexico's project to ban imports of transgenic white corn for human consumption from 2024. The objective is to ensure the conservation of the biodiversity of the more than 64 varieties of corn that exist in the country, while the US has warned that Mexico's current trajectory in biotechnology. In 2022, the US exported USD 28B worth of agricultural products to Mexico, while imported agricultural products from Mexico amounted to about USD 43B.
Researchers Discover a Novel Gene That Could Lead To More Resilient Corn Crops in the US (Mar 19)
Researchers have discovered a discovery that could lead to the breeding of maize crops that can tolerate drought and low-nitrogen soil conditions, alleviating global food insecurity.
Brazil
Minas Gerais Producers Are Betting on the Cultivation of Second-Crop Corn (Mar 13)
The heavy rains at the beginning of 2023 caused a delay in the harvest of the first grain crop in Brazil, resulting in a reduction in the window for planting the second crop. In Minas Gerais, the forecast for the second corn crop is around 454k ha planted, with an estimated production of 2.3M tons of grain. Crop rotation is beneficial for the soil, as it leaves residual nitrogen for the next crop. Madre de Deus in Campos das Vertentes has seen an increase in production due to higher prices and the livestock farming integration system.
March 2023 surpassed exports of unground corn (except sweet corn) for all of March 2022, with shipments of 731,769.7T. The accumulated volume in the first eight (8) working days of the month is 5,024.8 tons, 8.8% more than the total of 14,278.9T exported throughout the month. Brazilian corn exports increased 13,993.3% in March, with the National Association of Cereal Exporters estimating 803.2KT.
Planting of the 2023 Second Crop of Corn Reaches 74% In the Center-South of Brazil (Mar 13)
The planting of the 2023 second corn crop in the Center-South of Brazil, popularly known as safrinha, reached 74% of the estimated area of 14.952M ha, according to a survey by SAFRAS & Mercado. The works reach 55.8% of the area in Paraná, 49.8% in São Paulo, 67.9% in Mato Grosso do Sul, 72.3 in Goiás, 91.2 in Minas Gerais, 24.7% in Bahia, 23.2% in Maranhão, and 40.1% in Piauí.
Corn Exports From Brazil to China Amount to Just 70KT in February 2023 (Mar 13)
Corn exports from Brazil to China totaled 70KT in February 2023, a sharp drop from January 2023 when exports totaled 983.7KT. Total shipments from Brazil also fell by 60% compared to January to 2.275M tons. China lost the leadership of corn imports from Brazil in February, but traditional importers returned to be relevant, with Japan pulling 542KT, South Korea (276.2KT), Vietnam (133.8KT), Iran (105KT), and others. Brazil's logistical difficulties in exporting corn and soybeans caused delays in the harvest, leading to a 1M tons decrease in soybean exports.
Advance in Corn Planting in Mato Grosso Boosts Sales Acceleration in the State in Brazil (Mar 14)
The IMEA (Mato-Grossense Institute of Agricultural Economics) released a report showing updates on the 2023 corn crop. 30.04% of the expected total production was sown within the ideal window, while the negotiated price decreased by 3.07% compared to January 2023. The delay in negotiations is linked to the delay in the marketing of inputs, and a delay in sales in the state is observed.
Brazil Corn Crop Expected to Surpass 126M Tons (Mar 14)
Brazil's corn production is expected to reach 126.63M tons in 2022/2023, up 11.93% from 2022.
Weather Will Continue to Favor Corn Planting in Brazil (Mar 15)
The National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) points to the presence of rain in practically all producing regions of Brazil, maintaining the expectation of record production. Ruan Sene, the market analyst at Grão Direto, expects the agreement to be renewed and corn exports to continue. Brazilian prices may continue to be pressured, with a week of continued decline.
Brazil Safrinha Corn 81% Planted (Mar 16)
The 2022/23 Brazilian safrinha corn planting was 81% as of late W10 compared to 94% in 2022, representing an advance of 11%. Mato Grosso is nearing completion with 96.4% planted compared to 97.9% in 2022 and 96.2% on average. Parana is slow at 37%, compared to 69% in 2022, 43% in 2021, and 72% in 2020.
In Brazil, Despite Continued Delays in Planting, a Record Corn Harvest Is Expected (Mar 17)
Despite delays in the sowing of the second corn crop in Brazil, official data continues to point to record national production. In Argentina, new downward adjustments in estimates led to a reduction in world production due to the larger harvest in Brazil and the maintained production in the US. Domestic consumers acquire new lots only when there is a need to replenish stocks, but some buyers are having difficulties purchasing due to logistical issues.
Argentina
Stable Prices for Corn and Soybeans Available in the Local Market in Argentina (Mar 13)
The local grain market saw a slight increase in commercial dynamics compared to March 10, 2023, with stable prices among the main grains. In the Chicago market, wheat futures ended the day in positive territory, while corn recorded losses. Soybeans closed broadly lower due to nervousness in the banking sector after the fall of Silicon Valley Bank.
USDA Slashes Argentina Crop Production (Mar 13)
The USDA has reduced its estimates for 2022/23 soybean and corn production in Argentina due to hot and dry conditions, with soybean yields expected to be down as much as 50%. Argentine farmers are expected to be reluctant sellers of their dwindling grain supply in the hope of higher prices.
Ukraine
300K ha of Corn Have Not Been Harvested in Ukraine Since 2022 (Mar 13)
Farmers in Ukraine are preparing for the new planting season, but 300K ha of corn has not been harvested since 2022, leading to a shortage of funds to organize the next planting campaign and make room for the next harvest. Denis Marchuk, vice-president of the All Ukraine Agricultural Council (VAR), and Maksim Gopka, an analyst at the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB), say it is a priority to sell last year's harvest as soon as possible.
The Profitability of Corn May Increase in Ukraine (Mar 13)
Ukrainian farmers harvested a good harvest in 2022, but the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food warns that this year's figure may be much lower due to the decrease in interest in corn due to the increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizers and the fact that part of the crops is being harvested only on March 2023.
Global
Global Projections for the Corn and Soybean Season in 2022/2023 (Mar 17)
Corn production expects to reach 1,147.5M tons in 2021/22, a 5.6% drop from the 2021/22 campaign. World grain exports would fall by 15.1%, due to declines in the European Union, United States, Argentina, Ukraine, Canada, the United States, and China. Exports from South America would increase by 3.1% for Brazil, while exports from Argentina would fall by 18.6%. China expects to import around 18MT of maize, while the European Union would increase its imports by 18.8%. Ending stocks are expected to fall by 3.0% worldwide, settling at 296.5MT.
Kenya
The First Consignment of Maize From Ukraine Is Expected to Arrive in Kenya on March 12, 2023 (Mar 13)
42,464MT of the long-awaited duty-free maize is expected to arrive on 12 March, signaling relief to Kenyan millers struggling to access the commodity. The shipment from the Port of Odesa in Ukraine will mark the first consignment to reach Kenya since the authorization of duty-free imports in November 2022. In W10, a 90kg bag of maize retailed at USD 42-48, the highest price level ever in Kenya.
Kenya Sets Sights on Special Maize Imports Deal With Zambia Farmers (Mar 14)
Nairobi will sign contracts with farmers in Zambia to grow maize exclusively for export to the Kenyan market, with the first consignment expected in August.
Legislators Accuse Maize Millers of Breaching Subsidy Deadline Deal in Kenya (Mar 15)
Parliament has blamed millers for supplying maize flour past the contract period, further complicating the USD 22.08M (KES 2.9B) that the processors say they are owed by the government. The House Committee on Agriculture said millers might have extended the supply of subsidy flour up to six days, way after the contract between them and the State had been revoked. Millers faulted the move by the committee to reject the disbursement of their pending amount, terming the move as unfair. They are struggling to stay in business due to the delays in payment as most of them had taken commercial loans to support the subsidy scheme.
Mexico
The United States requested technical consultations due to a lack of scientific evidence, but the Mexican Union of Agrochemical Manufacturers and Formulators (UMFFAAC) pointed out that the US government's request does not speak only of transgenic corn, but of biotechnology, the category in which it is found. Conacyt has not demonstrated the affectation of glyphosate, and Mexico has been importing transgenic corn for more than 20 years without any reported cases of diseases or effects. González Cepeda criticized the new decree, which prohibits the consumption of genetically modified corn for dough and tortillas, but allows its importation for livestock and industrial use. The Ministry of Economy responded by putting a lock on imports, creating uncertainty for Mexico's main trading partner.
Mexican Perspective on GMO Corn Ban (Mar 14)
Mexico is considering banning genetically modified corn from the U.S. to become self-sufficient in non-GM corn, but there are questions about whether this will harm the ag sector and consumers.
Morocco
Morocco Will Reduce Its Corn Imports From Argentina (Mar 14)
Argentina, the world's third-largest corn producer, is expected to face a drop of 4B tons in annual production due to drought, resulting in a projected decrease in Morocco's maize imports from Argentina in 2023. Poultry and dairy farming are the main consumers of this cereal, with Morocco's national production falling by 4.1% in 2022 compared to 2021.
Paraguay
Corn Exports Tripled in the First Two Months in Paraguay (Mar 17)
Paraguay tripled its corn exports between January and February 2023, with 418,359T shipped, an increase of 303,716T (265%). It was due to the successful harvest of the 2022 harvest and high global demand, allowing an additional foreign currency inflow of USD 72M (248%). Capeco's Foreign Trade advisor assured that the record export does not affect the availability of raw material for internal use or industrialization, as production allows the domestic market to be fully supplied.
Corn Price Is Profitable for the Farmer but Not for the Confiner (Mar 18)
The corn harvest is delayed due to rains, which could have an impact on a lower volume of grain compared to the second harvest of last year. The director of SGA, Marcos Kain, explained that future business positions corn at a reference of USD 200-210/T, which allows for a good profit margin equation for the farmer. However, the confiner may see their numbers more affected due to the high cost of fat cattle. The intention to plant zafriña corn is similar to 2022's area, but a little more area will likely be planted.
Poland
In Poland, the Lodz Chamber Shows the Results of Maize Tests From Ukraine (Mar 14)
The President of IRWŁ sent a letter to the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, informing him that corn from Ukraine is not free of mycotoxins, and the Łódź agricultural self-government and Lodz Chamber requested a re-examination. The Łódź agricultural self-government also sent the results of tests on grain imported from Ukraine, which showed that the norms for the content were exceeded even twice.
Russia
In Russia, the Duty on Corn Was Increased by 9% (Mar 19)
Exports of wheat from the Russian Federation will be reduced by 0.30%, corn increased by 9.34%, and barley increased by 1.21%. Duties will be calculated in rubles, not dollars.
Zambia
Zambia Makes Land Available to Kenya to Grow Maize (Mar 13)
Zambia and Kenya have signed an agricultural collaboration agreement to provide 20K ha plots of land to Kenyan farmers to grow mainly maize, which will be exported to Nairobi. Kenya is facing a sharp rise in maize prices due to drought and is expected to import 700KT of maize in 2022/23.
