Global
The global apple harvest for 2022/23 is expected to drop by 3.9 MMT to 78.8 MMT, as growth in the European Union and Turkey is more than offset by weather conditions in China. Exports are expected to fall by 300K MT to 6.3M due to lower supply in China and South Africa. China's apple crop is expected to fall by 5 MMT to 41 MMT as high temperatures during flowering have limited fruit sets in the top provinces of Shaanxi and Shandong. Acreage is also shrinking as low market yields and government-encouraged grain farming are driving some growers to cut down trees. Several growers are replacing older apple trees with new varieties, but the yield from these new plantings is not yet sufficient to compensate for the fall caused by the felling of trees. Exports are expected to fall by 20% to 800K MT as reduced stocks limit supplies to several key markets, particularly Indonesia and Bangladesh. Imports are expected to increase by 25K tonnes to 100K tonnes due to increased shipments from New Zealand.
EU yields are expected to increase by 500K MT to 12.8M as France and Italy recover from last year's frost damage and Poland, the largest apple supplier, continues to ramp up production. Increased supply is expected to increase exports by 100K MT to 1.3M and consumption by nearly 400K MT to 11.8 MMT. Rising cold storage costs are expected to lead to lower-value fruit being sold. Imports are expected to fall by 11K MT to 320K MT as increased domestic supply dampens import demand. The US apple crop is expected to increase by 158K MT to 4.5M, marking a slight reversal after consecutive annual declines as a record crop in Michigan more than offsets losses in Washington from a wet, windy and cold spring. The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) surveyed the industry and released a US apple yield estimate in its August 2022 Crop Production Report. Despite higher supply, exports are expected to fall by 53K MT to 670K MT, before the third consecutive year of crop decline in Washington. Imports are expected to increase by 10K MT to 115K MT due to higher shipments from New Zealand.
Europe
EU Harvest Estimate for Apples Lowered
Between 2022/23 and 2021/22, a decrease of 2.3% in the EU apple harvest is expected. In addition, a decrease in EU apple exports is estimated at 3.2%. At the beginning of July 2022, when the report was drawn up, apple stocks were 22.9% lower than in the previous season.
Apples, European Countryside in Trouble
All of Europe is a country, one might say by analyzing the current apple campaign. Poland, Italy, and France have encountered problems in production leading the boot and beyond the Alps to revise the estimates. Poland is the country that produces the most apples in Europe, but this year also Polish producers had to grit their teeth against the increases suffered in logistics, energy, and fertilizers. In addition, the lack of manpower that also affects other producing countries has influenced the start of the harvesting season, not allowing all the apples to be harvested. To highlight the critical issues of the sector is Dominik Wozniak, president of the World Apple and Pear Association (Wapa) and vice president of the Polish cooperative Raipol, who affirmed that the production figures are very positive, but this year will still be remembered by apple growers as one of the most difficult in recent years.
Apple Processing Sector in EU Forced to Rebuild Due to High Electricity Prices
Rising energy costs forced apple producers in Europe to change plans for the harvest. Thus, some growers in the EU decided not to harvest the entire crop due to unbearable storage costs, which will later affect the apple market in 2022/23 MY, according to AgroPortal. In addition, many producers are sending more low-quality apples to the processing sector, keeping only high-quality fruits. As a result, according to USDA forecasts, the use of apples for processing in the EU will increase by 12.5% compared to the same period last year. Growth is expected in Poland, Germany, Austria, and France. This could result in an increased supply of apple concentrate in the 2022/23 season, potentially dampening price momentum. However, the cost of production for apple juice processors has risen significantly. It is noted that some processors in China stopped the production season earlier than usual to prevent rising costs. This led to a decrease in supply and an increase in prices. In November 2022, U.S. Chinese apple juice prices rose 10.3% MoM and 27.15% YoY to USD 12.84 a gallon.
The EU Will Produce More Pear Fruit, Less Imports of Apples
Growing pears in Poland have been gaining popularity in recent years. For the EU, production will increase by 240K MT to 2.1M MT due to good conditions in the Benelux and partial recovery of production in Italy after last year's devastating frost. For all EU exports, they are projected to increase by just 13K MT to 360K MT. On the other hand, imports, as in the case of apples, will be lower by 21K MT and fall to 165K MT/season. This will follow a slightly higher production in the Community.
United States
US Apple Holdings Decline by 7%
Fresh and processing apple inventories are reported lower in 2022 from the previous December, according to a Dec. 1 report from the U.S. Apple Association. The total number of apples in storage was 134.2M bushels, 7.1% smaller than last December’s total of 144.4M bushels and 11.5% less than the 5-year average for that date, according to the USApple report. Fresh apple holdings this December totaled 93.4M bushels, 6.8% less than the inventories reported for December 2021 and 14.5% lower than the December five-year average. Processing holdings were 40.8M bushels, 7.7% less than the previous year on Dec. 1 and 3.8% down from the December five-year average.
Moldova
Apple Prices Increased in Moldova for Export to Traditional Markets
As EastFruit price monitoring shows, since last week in the Moldovan market, wholesale prices for Idared, as well as other varieties of apples (Florina, Red Chief, etc.), usually sold in the CIS and Romanian markets, have increased by an average of USD 0.052/kg (1 lei), up to USD 0.31-0.38/kg (6-8 lei). According to market operators, the price of apples of the best quality has risen. The reasons for the rise in prices for apples of the mentioned varieties are not obvious. On the one hand, for Moldovan exporting gardeners, so far only 32 enterprises, the Russian market has slightly opened. At the same time, the head of the Moldovan Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry (MAIA), on the air of one of the local TV channels, suggested that the list of enterprises for which restrictions on the export of fruit products to Russian market would be lifted would expand by the end of this year. However, on the other hand, even though the same Idared is now several times more expensive in this market than in Moldova, the export of Moldovan apples to the east (CIS as a whole) is not growing noticeably.
Moldova Expects to Export More Apples to Romania
Traders in the Moldovan fruit market expect the supply of apples in the Romanian market to increase in December this year. As noted by representatives of fruit growers' organizations in Moldova, there has not yet been a rebound in supply compared to November. According to EastFruit, exports amounted to just over 600MT. At the end of November, however, there were encouraging signs of an increase in demand for imported apples from Romanian wholesale buyers. Supermarket chains have started purchasing Polish apples, which are large but not perfect in other quality parameters. They look good compared to local Romanian apples, but according to Moldovan traders, Moldovan apples are "quite competitive in terms of quality with Polish apples currently sold in Romanian chains." Another point is that Romanian retailers are willing to buy Moldovan Golden Delicious at a price of no more than USD 0.53-0.57/kg (€0.50-0.54), in a cardboard box and Romania. This means that for a guaranteed profitable export to the Romanian market, the purchase price for these apples in the Republic of Moldova should not exceed USD 0.19-0.31/kg (€ 0.18-0.29). Meanwhile, wholesale prices for Golden Delicious apples on the Moldovan market have stabilized at an average level of USD 0.36/kg (€0.34) since the end of November. Traders, therefore, see no point in exporting quality products at a lower price. At the beginning of December, Moldovan exporters only send small batches of Idared, Florina, Red Chief, and other apple varieties to Romania.
Russia
Russian Gardeners Opposed the Resumption of Supplies of Apples From Moldova
After the Rosselkhoznadzor gave the green light to the resumption of imports of Moldovan apples from individual producers, the Association of Russian Gardeners turned to the Prime Minister of the country with a request to limit the import of apples from Moldova. Thus, Russian producers are trying to solve their problems and would not like competitors in the conditions of a record harvest, AgroExpert.md reports. The authors of the appeal recall that the issue of limiting or completely banning the import of foreign fruits during the period of mass harvesting and selling crops within the country was discussed “at the government level”, but so far “remains unresolved”. As follows from the cited source, according to the letter, a record apple harvest has been stored in Russia this year, which can be sold before the summer of 2023. Moreover, according to farmers, Russian producers are at a disadvantage due to "unfair competition" with foreigners. “The cost price is constantly growing, over the past three years it has increased by 50%, while the selling price remains at the same level,” the appeal says.
South Korea
Chungju Apple Sales Promotion in Taiwan
Chungju City, Chungcheongbuk-do announced on December 14th that it exported 300MT of 'Chungju Apple' (adverb) to Taiwan in 2022. This is more than seven times the export volume of last year, and the amount reached USD 769,420.16 (1 billion won). Chungju City actively supported the export of Chungju apples to Taiwan by holding a local sales promotion. In particular, Mayor Cho Gil-Hyeon visited distribution sites such as wholesale markets and marts in Taipei, Taiwan for 3 nights and 4 days from the 11th, and started direct sales promotion. Cho also held a meeting with accompanying farmers to discuss ways to improve the quality of Chungju apples and expand exports, Chungju City reported. “We will find a way out for Chungju Apple through exports,” said Mayor Cho.
Poland
Payment Terms for Imported Apples From Poland to India
Currently, many companies ship apples from Poland to India and, to a lesser degree, Saudi Arabia, with the following payment terms: 50% advance, 40% CAD, and 10% arrival. However, there are some cases where buyers will not pay the 10% at arrival, so to ensure that suppliers do not lose money, the base selling price of apples is increased by 10%.
Georgia
Georgia Has So Far Reached Only 5% Of Its Total Apple Export Potential This Season
Three months have passed since the beginning of the 2022 season in Georgia, the harvest of which is estimated as a record one. With the production of 130K MT of apples, exports are needed now more than ever. The previous maximum harvest was about 90K MT, so the increase in supply is quite large. Unfortunately, the foreign trade in Georgian apples is much lower than what local producers would like. The good news is that exports are growing MoM in the first three months of the 2022 season. The low volume of exports in September 2022 is not surprising given some harvest delays and September being an early period overall. Exports in October were, of course, higher than in September, and this upward trend continued into the following month. In November 2022, Georgia exported 1.4K MT of apples, which is 65% more than in October. Almost all exported apples went to the Russian Federation. The increase in exports compared to the previous month is certainly positive news in itself, but the overall picture remains almost unchanged. So far this season, exports are 12% lower than the previous season and 55% lower than the record-breaking 2020 season. Over the same period, there is a lag in export earnings. So far, the total income from apple exports is lower by 10% and 30% compared to the same period in 2021 and 2020, respectively. Interestingly, in the first 3 months of the 2022 season, only 2% of the crop was exported. This figure was 4 and 6% for the same period in 2021 and 2020. The total export volume for the same period is 2.5K tons. The total export potential of the 2022 crop is estimated at 40-50K tons. Wholesale prices in Georgian markets remain stable, as many producers store their apples so as not to flood the market right now.
