W12: Weekly Pork Update
Europe
Pork Production in the EU Is the Lowest in 8 Years (Mar 22)
The decline in pork production in the last year in the EU and Great Britain is due to the rapid increase in production costs, further outbreaks of ASF, new demands for "green policies" and the rising cost of living for consumers. All of them saw the region's pork production in 2022 fall to its lowest annual volume since 2014, at 22.1M MT, down 5.6% YoY (-1.3M MT). All the major producing countries saw a significant decline, but it was most noticeable for Germany. In general, Germany has recorded an annual decline in production of 2-3% since 2017, but in 2022 it was almost 10% with loss of almost 500K MT in 12 months. In 2022, Poland, Spain, Denmark, and Belgium faced a drop in annual production from 180K MT to 110K MT. The reduction in slaughter was the driving force behind the decline in production. The total pig population in the EU in 2022 was 237M heads, which is the lowest recorded figure since 2014 and a sharp fall in annual terms by 12.6M heads (-5.1%). The largest reduction by country was observed in Germany (-4.8M heads), Poland (-1.9M heads), Spain (-1.7M heads), and Belgium (-1.1M heads).
Spain
Extremadura’s Largest Iberian Pig Slaughterhouse Inaugurated (Mar 22)
The Minister of Agriculture, Luis Planas, and the President of the Junta de Extremadura, Guillermo Fernández Vara, inaugurated, in Zafra (Badajoz), the Complejo del Ibérico de Extremadura (CIBEX), the largest slaughterhouse for Iberian pigs in the autonomous community, a reference in energy efficiency and optimization of the use of resources, in addition to having adequate animal welfare conditions. This initiative is the result of collaboration between seven companies with the support of different administrations, which will be a key element in the industrialization of Extremadura, the region with the highest number of Iberian pigs, with 36% of the total number of animals of this breed. Investment for the project is around USD 24.97M (23M euros), of which USD 6.73M (6.2M euros) correspond to aid for rural development, within the line of investment to improve processing and marketing. This initiative will create around 200 direct jobs and it is expected that more than 800 indirect jobs will be created.
United States
Education Pushes Momentum for US Pork in Dominican Republic (Mar 21)
US pork exports to the Dominican Republic reached new heights last year and haven’t missed a beat in 2023. January exports climbed 28% YoY to more than 8K MT, while export value jumped 67% to nearly USD 24M. Lucia Ruano, US Meat Export Federation regional representative for Central America and the Dominican Republic, says consumer education efforts, funded by the USDA Market Access Program and the National Pork Board, have helped bolster demand for US pork, which has a growing presence in the DR's rapidly expanding retail sector.
Red Meat Production Dipped in February (Mar 23)
US commercial red meat production declined in February. Pork production was 2.157B pounds, down 1% on the year as a slight increase in the slaughter rate to 9.974M head was canceled out by a 2-pound decrease in the average live weight to 291 pounds.
Record-Large Shipments to Mexico Lead Strong Month for US Pork Exports (Mar 24)
Fresh off a record year, pork exports to Mexico didn’t miss a beat in January, according to the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Export volume was a record at 96.8K MT, up 11% from a year ago and 7% above the previous high in December 2022. January export value soared 40% to USD 191.2M. Demand for US pork is surging even as it faces increasing competition in Mexico, due to the suspension of import duties for all eligible suppliers through the end of 2023. Mexico also recently opened to some imports from Brazil.
Germany
Germany Is Exporting Less and Less Meat (Mar 21)
In 2022, almost 2.9M MT of meat and meat products were exported from Germany, mostly to other EU countries. According to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), this means a decrease of 6.9% compared to 2021. Over the past five years, meat exports have fallen by a total of 19.3%. In 2017, almost 3.6M MT of meat was exported from Germany. In particular, pork, which in 2022 accounted for almost 1.5M MT, 50.5% of German meat exports, and has been exported much less frequently in the last five years. The amount of pork exported decreased by 20.4% between 2017 and 2022.
Denmark
Danish Piglets Price Increase (Mar 23)
After two weeks of stagnation, the Danish stock market went up. Negative PRRS piglets were valued at USD 94.71/head (DKK 650.00), and PRRS positive piglets at USD 93.25/head (DKK 640.00). The rates apply to weaners weighing 30 kg. Compared to prices from the same period last year (W13), the current rates for weaners are USD 34.97- 36.43/head (DKK 240-250) higher depending on health status. In turn, compared to W11, the current rates are higher by USD 4.37/pcs (30 DKK) in all health statuses. The rate as of Mar 23 for weaners with PRRS negative status was USD 94.71/head (DKK 650.00), compared to USD 90.65/head (PLN 391.16) last week. The rate for piglets with a positive PRRS status was USD 93.25/head (DKK 640.00), compared to USD 89.18/head (PLN 384.85) last week. The rate for piglets with conventional status was USD 89.62/head (DKK 615.00), compared to USD 85.53/head (PLN 369.08).
Decrease in Pork Exports to Third Countries, Increase in Sales to the EU (Mar 24)
Despite significantly lower sales, China remained the most important recipient of pork from Denmark in 2022. According to data from the umbrella organization of the Danish agri-food industry (L&F), exports to China decreased by 152.21K MT, down 29.2% compared to 2021 to 368.39K MT. Revenues from this export fell by 22.4% down to USD 929.91M (EUR 857M). Deliveries to third countries fell by 14.5%. Pork shipments to other third countries such as Japan and the Philippines increased, and South Korea and Ukraine bought less. Exports to the UK amounted to 152.56K MT and were at the previous year's level. Overall, sales of Danish pork outside the EU fell by 14.5%, down to 865.9K MT. Danish exporters had to find new recipients for their goods, and at least some of them were found in the European Union. Sales of pork in the EU market increased by 6.4% to 624.93K MT in 2022 compared to 2021.
Netherlands
Fewer Pigs in 2022 in Netherlands (Mar 20)
The pig herd decreased in 2022 compared to a year earlier by 1.6% to 11.3M. Compared to 2017, the pig herd has 9% fewer animals. The number of pigs has decreased since 2020, partly due to the cessation scheme and the subsidy scheme for the reorganization of pig farming (SRV). The number of farms with pigs fell by 4% to almost 3.3K last year compared to 2021. In five years, the average number of pigs per farm increased by almost 20% to 3.4K. This is mainly because relatively small companies have stopped keeping pigs in recent years. Almost half of the pigs are housed in North Brabant. In this province, the number of farms with pigs fell by a third in five years, and the number of pigs fell less sharply by 13%. Land van Cuijk (682K) and Venray (559K) were the municipalities with the most pigs in 2022.
Brazil
Why Is the Market Attentive to the Spread of African Swine Fever in China? (Mar 20)
The analysis by Ruan Sene, a market analyst, says that the African swine fever epidemic in China has already begun to present the same feeling to the market as in 2021 when the Asian country had to slaughter 40% of its pig herd. At the time, the disease contributed to a significant drop in Brazilian soy premiums, and now, in 2023, this could happen again, further aggravating the current declines. The pig farming market is the largest demander of soybean meal in the world, which is used to feed the herd, and, a new significant slaughter, would significantly reduce the demand for Brazilian soybeans. The market will keep its attention on information about the advance of African swine fever in China. The virus is highly contagious and can quickly spread among pigs, causing death or the need to be slaughtered. We can see a boost in the domestic pork market, intensifying the domestic demand for soybean meal, as it is used to manufacture animal feed. Given the logistical conditions and the progress of the harvest, premiums tend to sustain the declines, pulling prices down in the Brazilian physical market. The scenario with a decrease in Chinese demand, due to swine fever, tends to put downward pressure on Chicago quotations for the next week.
Pork Revenue From Shipments Grows by Almost 40% In March (Mar 21)
On Mar 20, the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) released data on pork shipments in the third week of March. “In natura” pork exports from Brazil generated USD 143.006M in the 13 working days of March, with a daily average of USD 11M. The total amount exported by the country in the period reached 59.29K MT, with a daily average of 4.56K MT. The average price of the protein was USD 2.41K. Compared to March 2022, there was a 38.9% increase in the average daily value, a 23.4% gain in the average daily quantity, and a 12.5% increase in the average price.
Brazil’s Goiás Region Sees Record Pig Slaughter in 2022 (Mar 21)
Pig slaughter increased by 2.5% in 2022 in the Brazilian state of Goiás, according to the Quarterly Animal Slaughter Survey released on March 15 by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). In 2022, the pig slaughter broke historical records at both the state and national levels. Goiás slaughtered more than 2M heads of pigs. Brazil as a whole slaughtered 56.2M heads, an increase of 5.9% compared to 2021.
USDA Projections Indicate Growth of More Than 31% In Pork Exports From Brazil Until 2032 (Mar 23)
The production of national pork, considering the slaughter surveys carried out by the IBGE, showed significant growth in the last two decades. In a previous article made available by SuiSite, the possibility of allocating a large part of the volume produced to the foreign market was analyzed. Forecasts made by the USDA through its agricultural projections committee showed, in October last year, that in the last year of the present decade, Brazil tends to surpass Canada’s exports, confirming itself as the third largest exporting country, behind only the European Union and the United States. This position will consolidate in the following years, culminating in an estimated volume of 1.740M MT exported in 2032, meaning a significant increase of 31.6% over the total shipped in 2021.
Restricted Supply in the Domestic Market Increases Pork Prices (Mar 23)
From January to February, live hogs sold on the independent market appreciated by 10.7% in the SP-5 region, 11.8% in Greater Belo Horizonte (MG), and in the southern region of the country, it varied between 11.9% and 6.8%. Rising prices of the main inputs consumed in pig farming (corn and soybean meal) led to the abandonment of the activity or reduction of herds by some pig farmers that operate in the independent market. The low availability of animals in the domestic market, especially in terms of ideal weight for slaughter, resulted in a strong upward movement in live hog and special carcass prices in February in most markets monitored. Quotations even reached the highest monthly average in Cepea's historical series, which began in March 2002, considering the February months of previous years, in nominal terms. From January to February, live hogs sold on the independent market appreciated 10.7% in the SP-5 region (Bragança Paulista, Campinas, Piracicaba, São Paulo, and Sorocaba), with an average of USD 1.49/kg (R$ 7.70), a nominal record for February in the entire historical series of Cepea, started in March 2002.
Brazil’s Pork Exports in the First 2 Months of 2023 Increased by 14.9% (Mar 24)
A survey by the Brazilian Meat Association (ABPA) shows that Brazil's pork exports (including all products, between fresh and processed) in February 2023 totaled 78.6K MT, equivalent to USD 184.9M, up 10% in volume and 25.4% in turnover compared to February 2022. Generally, in the first two months of 2023, pork exports reached 167.9K MT, worth USD 397.3M, up 14.9% in volume and 28.9% in turnover over the same period in 2022. Results for the first two months of the year are in line with ABPA projections, suggesting exports could grow by more than 10% for the whole of 2023, which should be bolstered by recent market openings. China is Brazil's largest pork import market, with 73.1K MT in the first two months of this year, up 37.8% over the same period last year. Followed by Hong Kong with 14.9K MT (up 4.9%) and Chile with 13.5K MT (up 93.6%).
Mexico
Mexican Meat Exports Fall by More Than 14% (Mar 23)
The Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA) reported that in the accumulated between January and February, total meat exports (80.06K MT) fell 14.3% while total imports rose 11.6% with a 25.4% higher value, mainly due to high pork prices. Pork exports during the first two months maintained their downward trend, this time with a 14.2% drop to end with 30.9K MT, since China completely stopped purchases; this also caused a lower value of 12.8%, of USD 123.9M. Imports reflected the opposite behavior, totaling 250K MT, which meant a YoY growth of 3.6%, driven to a greater extent by strong demand in the processing industry.
United Kingdom
UK's Pork Trade Falls in January (Mar 20)
Total pork imports into the UK reached just under 60K MT in January 2023, down 3.4% (2.1K MT) from December 2022 and 1% compared to January last year. Shipments from the Netherlands and Germany saw substantial declines, down 51% (11.6K MT) and 44% (8.1K MT) from January 2022 levels, likely as a result of lower production and therefore reduced available supplies. There was growth in imports from Denmark, with an increase of 1.1K MT (8%), Ireland with an increase of 880MT (19%), and Belgium with an increase of 620MT (32%). Total pork exports (excluding offal) were down 3.7K MT (-19.8%) in January from December, and down 3.9K MT (-20.7%) from shipments recorded in January last year. Exports to China fell by just under 30% (1.9K MT) on the month, with similar percentage drops seen in exports to Ireland (-940MT) and France (-530MT). YoY growth appears to have been strongest for EU countries, with shipments increasing by between 240-400MT to France, Germany, and Ireland. Meanwhile, volumes shipped to China dropped by 2.7K MT (37%) in the year.
Illegal Pork Imports Seized in East Yorkshire (Mar 21)
Officials in East Yorkshire have seized illegal pork imports at ports from various EU countries over the past few months. A total of 80kg of imported meat has been seized in the region since measures to combat African swine fever were introduced in September, banning imports of pork above 2kg unless it is in verified commercial packaging with EU health marks. This included four consignments of meat from different EU countries, a report by the Hull and Goole Port Health Authority said, according to a report by the Hull Daily Mail. Laurence Dettman, the chief port health inspector, said these consignments of meat were either seized or surrendered voluntarily before being destroyed. The authority had recently lodged a bid for more funding to help enforce the measures at Hull’s and Goole’s ports, he added.
Big Reduction in UK Pig Slaughtering and Pig Meat Production Recorded in February (Mar 22)
UK clean pig slaughtering and pig meat production were significantly down in February, as the long-anticipated pig shortages finally became fully apparent. Clean pig slaughtering were down 17% on February 2022 at 762K head, following the surprisingly small 1%YoY dip recorded by Defra in January. Throughputs were down 11% in January and sat 13% below the 5-year average. The large reduction in slaughtering tallies with AHDB GB weekly slaughtering estimates, which showed huge reductions in 2022 and 2021 in February and will come as little surprise after Defra census data showed a 20% drop in the breeding herd in the year to December 2022. February pig meat production was 21% lower than in February 2022 at 70K MT, the Defra figures show. This compares with a January YoY reduction of 7%. Pig meat production volumes have followed the slaughter trend with a monthly decline of 11% to sit at 70.2K MT in February, 13% below the 5-year average. The YoY decline in pig meat production is larger, at 21%, due to average carcass weights being 5kg lighter (88.9kg) in 2023 than they were in 2022.
Russia
Quarantine Lifted in Kaliningrad Region After ASF Outbreak (Mar 21)
The quarantine imposed in some municipalities of the Kaliningrad region after a major outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in the summer of 2022 has been canceled by the decree of Governor Anton Alikhanov. At the same time, some restrictive measures will continue to operate for six months. At the same time, within 180 days after the cancellation of the decree, restrictions will continue to apply to meat producers and farms where pigs are bred. In particular, they are prohibited from exporting products of slaughter and processing of meat that have not undergone heat treatment at a temperature of at least 70 degrees, ensuring its disinfection, and there will also be a ban on the sale of pigs in the territories of the threatened zone and the surveillance zone, that is, in the territories of the region where found cases.
A focus of African swine fever has already been found in three settlements in the south of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, in the Minusinsk, and Karatuz regions, the press service of the regional Rosselkhoznadzor reported on Mar 23. In mid-March, Rosselkhoznadzor specialists received information about the death of pigs in a personal subsidiary farm in the village of Malaya Minusa, Minusinsk district, Krasnoyarsk Territory. Samples were taken and it turned out that the animals were infected with African swine fever. More than 500 animals were seized and burned. On the territory of the Minusinsk region, a quarantine and an emergency regime were introduced.
China
China Fights Again Against Swine Fever That Killed Millions of Pigs (Mar 20)
Several areas of China are again facing outbreaks of African swine fever, a disease that can reach up to 100% mortality rate among pigs and that between mid-2018 and 2019 killed tens of millions of animals in the country. According to the local news portal Sohu, 18 of the country's 31 regions have already experienced new cases of this disease, with a particular incidence in Liaoning (northeast), Shandong (east), Hebei (north), and Shanxi (north). According to the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), there is still no effective vaccine against the virus, and the aforementioned medium points out that the one being developed in China would not be ready until, at least, October of 2023. African swine fever is a highly contagious hemorrhagic disease that can kill pigs and wild boars two to 10 days after they contract it.
China’s Pork Import and Export Forecast in 2023 by USDA (Mar 24)
According to the USDA Report, China's 2023 pig production is forecast to decline 2% YoY to 700M head due to lower average sow inventories in 2022 compared to 2021. The import of breeding pigs in 2023 is forecast at 5K heads due to the large domestic stock of sows. At the beginning of 2023, the sow inventory in China exceeded the target set by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA). Large stock of sows is expected to limit the import of breeding pigs. Pork production in 2023 is estimated at 55.5M MT, a slight increase. Manufacturers are expected to respond to strong consumer demand following the lifting of COVID restrictions. Pork production growth will be constrained by pork prices. In 2023, producers are expected to continue to increase herds as they think prices will rise. In 2023, China's pork imports are expected to increase by nearly 4% from 2022 to 2.2M MT due to stronger consumer demand following the end of COVID-19 restrictions, but the pace of Import growth will be restrained by increased domestic production.
Japan
Pork Production and Trade Forecast for 2023 (Mar 23)
In Japan, in 2022, pig slaughter amounted to 1.293M MT of carcass weight, 2% less than in 2021. Increased production costs led pig producers to finish fattening earlier to reduce costs of feed, resulting in a reduction in average carcass weight of just under 2%, to 78.3 kg. In 2023, production is forecast to increase by 0.5% to 1.3M MT carcass weight. Pork consumption is expected to continue to grow in 2023 as consumers prefer pork, which is cheaper than beef. Demand for frozen pork, which is mainly destined for food processing companies, will generate stable sales of processed pork products in 2023, but high opening stocks will result in lower imports. Japanese pork imports in 2022 amounted to 1.523M MT, 7% more than in 2021.
Ukraine
Ukraine Bought USD 879K Worth of Pigs Abroad in 2 Months (Mar 20)
In January-February 2023, Ukraine imported 163MT of live pigs worth USD 879K, while there were no deliveries from abroad during the same period last year. All pigs from the beginning of 2023 were imported from Denmark. On the other hand, this year there is no export of live pigs, although, in the first two months of 2022, Ukraine sent 141.5MT of these animals to foreign markets worth USD 220.7K.
In Ukraine, the Demand for Pork Is Growing (Mar 21)
Demand for pork in Ukraine is partially recovering. According to Pig Progress and the Association of Ukrainian Pig Breeders, the last few months have been marked by turbulence related to Russia's aggressive war. For example, power failures have repeatedly threatened production. The picture changed at the end of February when demand from buyers revived. Therefore, the price dynamics were positive. Pig farmers could sell their animals to slaughterhouses for USD 1.82 to USD 1.84/kg (67 to 68 hryvnias). The association estimates that this was about 5 to 9 cents/kg more than the previous week. In recent months, Ukrainian pig farmers have had difficulty selling their pigs.
South Korea
South Korea Reports Case of African Swine Fever (Mar 20)
South Korea reported another case of African swine fever (ASF), issuing a shutdown order for pig farms and relevant facilities in the northern regions of the country, the Ministry of Agriculture said Mar 20. The country's fifth case of ASF in 2023 was confirmed after 50 pigs died at a pig farm with 12.84K pigs reared in Pocheon, about 40 km northeast of the capital Seoul, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs.
Philippines
African Swine Fever Detected in Cebu and Four Other Cities in the Region in the Philippines (Mar 20)
African swine fever (ASF) virus has been detected in Cebu and four other cities in the region, the Department of Agriculture Animal Industry (BAI) said on Mar 20. BAI said that the cities of Liloan, Tuburan, Sibonga, and Bogo City have also reported cases of ASF. The samples were sent to the Regional Laboratory of Reference and Diagnosis of Animal Diseases (RADDL) in the region and tested using real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), the gold standard for testing and confirming the ASF virus. The agency said it is continuing to collect data to determine the extent of the outbreak in Cebu province.
Colombia
Sow Inventory in Colombia Is up by 1.3% In 2022 (Mar 21)
In 2022, a total of 9.658M pigs were recorded in Colombia, of which 59% corresponded to animals originating from technified production, 17% from commercial industrial farms, 14% from commercial family farms, and 10% from backyard farms. The departments with the highest concentration of pigs were Antioquia, Valle del Cauca, and Meta, which together accounted for almost 50% of the country's pigs. Technified production, which was the most representative with 5.710M animals, consisted of 224.04K breeding sows, 36.55K replacement females, 3.69K breeding boars, and 5.446M nursery and finishing pigs. A total of 192.67K pig farms were registered, with 0.4% being of technified production, 2.1% commercial industrial production, 18.6% commercial family production, and 78.9% backyard production. Although backyard farms (152.07K make up the largest number of farms, the number of pigs recorded was very low (1.011M animals) compared to the inventory of pigs housed in technified farms (5.710M animals), which represents the smallest number of farms (782 ). The results of the survey reveal a 5% increase in the number of technified farms compared to those recorded in 2021 (745). The figures show increases of 1.3% in the number of technified breeding sows and 7.5% in the number of breeding boars, which is in line with the increase in pork production in 2022.
